Thursday, March 9, 2017 5 P.M.
GFS’s most recent snow forecast:
NAM is also trending toward zero.
GFS’s latest
Leave a reply
Thursday, March 9, 2017 1:30 P.M.
Today’s forecast models continue the downward trend in the snow forecast they were making earlier this week. I’ve always cautioned against believing snow forecasts made days in advance. Too many subtle differences in nature can add up quickly to major changes. Once again, that seems to be the case. Here’s the GFS snow forecast from last night’s run:
You can see the change over the past few days by checking my last two posts.
Now that the predicted “event” is closer we can get a much better feel for what’s going to happen. The GFS has continued to push Saturday’s system farther south, keeping rain/snow confined to areas from southern KY and south. The NAM also pushes the main system to our south. However, it still allows the northern edge of the snow to extend into northern KY and far southern IN. This morning’s NAM predicts up to an inch for our area. The GFS keeps us dry. On a probability of measurable precipitation basis the GFS gives us a 35% chance while the more encouraging NAM puts it at 70%.
Personally, the GFS seems more reasonable and I’d lean toward the no snow side of the forecast. However, the GFS’s “verification scores” have been very poor for the past 3-5 days, so there is still reason for hope.
Another GFS snow estimate
Wednesday, March 8, 2017 8 P.M.
Counting down to Saturday’s possible snow…Yesterday’s GFS forecast can be seen on yesterday’s post. Here’s today’s estimate from the GFS.
Can’t wait to see what tomorrow’s forecast holds…
Snow possible Saturday night!
Tuesday, March 7, 2017 7 P.M.
Today’s GFS is predicting a nice snowfall Saturday night (see below). Of course, a lot can, and will, happen between now and then. But it is exciting to at least have the thought that we still could have a good snow before the season ends. Unfortunately, the GFS stands alone at this time…the European model keeps the chance for significant snow north of us.
Meanwhile, here’s the GFS’s snow forecast for the 24-hour forecast ending at 7 A.M. Sunday:
Think snow!
Stuff
Streetside parking meters are illegal in the state of North Dakota.
Charity begins in the home…in this case. An 87 year old preacher and his wife run an on-line ministry as a “non-profit” organization. Last year they reported a net income for the website of 7 million dollars. Their combined salaries added up to $4 million. That reminds me of the old joke about what to do with the offering plate each Sunday. “i take the plate, throw it up in the air. God takes his share and whatever falls back down is mine.” Only is this case, it’s not a joke!
Stormy night
11:30 P.M. update…Feb. 28, 2017
As mentioned on previous post, the southern Illinois/southern Indiana region as become the new “hot spot” for severe/tornadic thunderstorms. Super cell now crossing the Wabash River about 40 miles northwest of Evansville has a history of tornado production and should continue to create problems as it continues on a line about 40 miles north of the Ohio River. This system is moving into a more stable atmosphere so activity will slowly weaken as it approaches the I-65 corridor.
In addition a large cluster of thunderstorms over southwestern KY/TN will also be weakening as it moves about 40-50 mph toward the northeast. This should be in the Louisville area between about 2 A.M. until 4 A.M. Biggest threat for us from these storms will be heavy rains/flash flooding.
Finally, the cold front will bring additional thunderstorms across the area between 7 A.M. and Noon. Once again, flooding will be the primary threat.
Atmosphere is set for some big fireworks
Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2017 3:30 P.M.
Both surface and upper air components of the atmosphere are converging on a major “sweet spot” where (and when) ample supplies of severe storm ingredients will come together soon. A major outbreak of severe weather is expected with large hail, strong winds and tornadoes all looking likely.
WHERE: Texas, eastern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, eastern Missouri, Illinois and western Indiana. Perhaps far western KY as well.
WHEN: The arrival of the strong storm ingredients should occur over the southern parts of the states listed above around 6 P.M. EST. The most severe activity will continue for about 8-12 hours. The prime conditions will uncouple after that and activity will diminish tomorrow morning. Additional strong storms (but not as strong as tonight’s storms) may reform tomorrow afternoon over eastern KY.
A storm system developing over central Missouri now will rapidly intensify under a very strong upper air flow over the Mississippi Valley and reach the Great Lakes by morning. Trailing the low pressure will be an eastward moving cold front. As the front moves into the warm, moist air thunderstorms will break out this evening and accelerate northeastward. The strong wind fields aloft will have no problems converting the thunderstorms into severe weather-makers quickly. During the evening, the biggest problems will be over ne TX, east OK and AR. By Midnight, the greatest threat pushes northward into eastern MO, IL and western IN. From Midnight until about 6 A.M., the models put a “bulls eye” over southern IL and southern IN for the greatest damage risk. NOTE: although the models zero in on the area north of the Ohio River, a few isolated severe storms could develop over western KY counties bordering the Ohio River.
By 6 A.M. the severe storms should be over, or at least diminishing. By that time the remaining lines/clusters of thunderstorms will be approaching the Louisville area. The primary area of rain/storms should push through the I-65 corridor between 8 A.M. and Noon. Some strong winds may still be possible, but the primary threat for our area will be flash flooding. After the periods of heavy rain today, the ground is saturated. Additional heavy downpours tomorrow morning would be enough to trigger brief flash flooding.
The cold front is expected to pass though the Louisville area about Noon tomorrow so any additional severe weather generation tomorrow afternoon will be over eastern KY. Meanwhile, we’ll start a drying process during the afternoon as cooler air arrives.
Stuff
Sunday night’s big Oscar blunder wasn’t the first time that has happened. But, the first time it happened, the category wasn’t a major one. In 1964, the “Best Music Score” award was announced for the movie “Tom Jones.” But that movie wasn’t even nominated! The actual winner was Andre Previn for “Irma La Douce.”
Another severe weather attempt
Monday, Feb. 27, 2017
Another strong storm will come out of the southern Rockies and push toward the Great Lakes by Wednesday. This is a classic severe storm set-up, but the likely timing of the system currently puts us into the very low side of severe storm possibilities. The highest risk areas will be west of us tomorrow afternoon/evening and east of us for Wednesday afternoon.
The past two similar systems were moisture-shy. In both cases, nothing of consequence happened locally – thanks to that lack of moisture. This time, however, there will be plenty of moisture in the equation. So severe storm outbreaks appear likely tomorrow and Wednesday, but, as mentioned above, the main part of the storm system will reach us during the lull between the two outbreaks.
Here’s how it’s shaping up…a warm front will push through the lower Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow morning. This will bring high moisture content into the area. The front should generate a few hours of showers (and possible thunderstorms) tomorrow morning between about 7 A.M. through Noon. Any thunderstorms that form tomorrow morning could produce small hail. Then, we’ll see a windy and warm afternoon with temperatures nearing 70 degrees.
During tomorrow afternoon/evening thunderstorms will develop along a cold front from Arkansas to Missouri into Illinois. A widespread outbreak of severe weather is expected. As the night continues this cluster of severe weather will drift eastward and weaken. It is expected to drift through the I-65 corridor Wednesday morning remaining in the weakened state. Then, Wednesday afternoon it is expected to re-intensify into another area of strong to severe storms as it moves east of the I-75 corridor.
Even though the severe threat looks quite low for the Louisville area, the two (or more) rain systems we expect could easily drop !” to 1.5″ of rain by midday Wednesday.
Stuff
Each panel of glass on the Grand Canyon Skywalk can safely hold 800 people even though the glass is only 2.5″ thick.
Severe weather threat is diminishing
Fri, Feb 24, 2017 5:30 P.M.
Moisture is still iimited and models continue to pay far more attention to northeast IN and MI. Cold front should pass through Jefferson County between 8:30 and 9:30 P.M. Some strong gusty winds are likely with the front, but winds should NOT reach the 58 mph range (needed to be called “Severe”).
Severe Storms Possible Tonight
Friday, Feb.24, 2017 Noon
A strong storm forming between St. Louis and Chicago will intensify rapidly during the day as it moves quickly northeast into Michigan. North and west of the storm track heavy snow is likely. However, the “warm sector” south and east of the storm will remain dry most of the day as we wait for a supply of moisture to arrive from the south. Once the moisture gets north, the strong dynamics of the parent storm should have no problem producing some severe thunderstorms. Primary threat will be strong winds. Hail is a slight risk while tornado chance is pretty close to zero.
This system is similar to the last time severe weather was widely advertised, but failed to show up. The problem is with the moisture. The dynamics with the system are tremendous, but the thermodynamics are quite weak. So, once again, the various models are relatively low on the “probability” of storm formation, but the so-called “conditional probability” for severe storms is high. What that means in normal people-speak is that the overall chance for a thunderstorm hitting you is small (about 30%). But IF a thunderstorm forms, there is a high chance it’ll reach severe levels (about 50%). So, if you multiply the two numbers you get a roughly 15% chance for severe winds within 25 miles of your home tonight. Obviously, the chance at any single point (your home) is much lower.
The models agree well on timing. The arrival of the cold front trailing the surface storm and sufficient moisture to generate thunderstorms should be about the same time. Best timing for Louisville looks like between 8 and 10 P.M. While some storms should form west of Louisville earlier, this system shouldn’t get well organized until it gets east of I-65. Areas east of Louisville have a greater chance for wind damage than we do. Best chance looks like 9 P.M. until Midnight for areas east of I-65.
Caution
As always, you’ll be hearing a lot of hype about storm potential this afternoon/evening. What you’ll be hearing will be “the worst case scenario.” Luckily, nature rarely reaches our hyped up expectations.
Quiet weekend
Saturday, Feb. 11, 2017 1 P.M.
A weak Alberta Clipper will push rapidly eastward across the lower Great Lakes tonight. Gusty southerly winds ahead of this system will bring us another unseasonably warm day although those winds are having trouble bringing moisture northward. However, it does appear likely we’ll see a little rain late tonight as the Clipper’s cold front pushes through. Rain will probably be only a few hundredths of an inch and end around daybreak tomorrow. Another windy day Sunday, but this time the winds will be from the northwest. Thus, colder weather – temperatures will be slowly falling through the 50’s during the day.
Intriguing photos
Got these from http://spaceweather.com They show a funnel cloud near Rio de Janiero a few days ago. They did not touch down and caused no damage. In Brazil they are called “tubes.”
