5:15 P.M.Thursday

Line of storms is falling apart. Strongest cells will be moving through Oldham County for the next 15 minutes.

Thursday, June 29, 2023 4:30 P.M.

A couple of hours ago a massive line of intense thunderstorms was moving ESE from Illinois to Indiana. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been moving in lockstep with the squall line. Two hours later (now), the severe warnings are still being issued. In fact, a warning now covers all of southern Indiana down to the Ohio River.

However, radar indications show considerable weakening along this line. It is still potent, just not as bad as it was. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western two-thirds (everywhere west of I-75) of KY in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch this evening.

Primary threats are strong winds with a smaller chance for large hail. Storms should move through the metro area between 5:30 and 7 P.M. Expect the usual strong wind gusts of summer thunderstorms with scattered (mostly) minor damage.

As of 5:00 P.M. the line of storms is closing in on the Ohio River. It continues to weaken, but is still moving fast enough to generate gusts to 50mph, or so.

Luckily the super cell has weakened a bit, become less organized and changed directions over the past hour.

Primarily, the cell has turned a little of the original path it was taking. So, now the biggest threat seems to be southern Floyd County and the southwestern half of Jefferson Co. From there it should head into Bullitt and Nelson Counties.

Strong winds and hail are still likely, but any tornado threat has lessened.

5:30 P.M. Sunday, June 25, 2023

We’re in a Tornado Watch and it looks like some damaging weather has got parts of Louisville in its sight. Instability is high, wind shear is strong and, even though the cold front headed our way is not very strong, severe weather chances are high.

A “super cell” thunderstorm has broken away the broken line of storms plagueing southern Indiana this afternoon and headed on a path that brings it through northern Floyd Co., western Clark Co. during the next half hour. Then the storm will cross the Ohio River into northeast Jefferson Co., Oldham Co. and into Shelby Co. between 6 and 7P.M.

Super cells are never to be taken lightly. Brief very strong winds and large hail appear likely with this storm. Even a tornado is possible. Be carefull.

Sunday, June 11, 2023 5:30 P.M.

The Kentucky part of our area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 P.M. Should it be?

The original Watch issued by the Storm Prediction Center did not include the Louisville area. The original watch’s northern boundary covered pretty much of the southern half of the commonwealth. It’s pretty marginal, but a couple of isolated severe storms could hit southern KY this evening, especially near the Tennessee border.

Meanwhile, the Louisville office decided to include numerous counties in northern KY to the original Watch. Bad decision. Radar trends and model forecast trends continue show no threat of severe storms within at least 50 to 75 miles of the Ohio River. The local office invented a risk that doesn’t exist.