A Eureka moment?

1 P.M. Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022

For several days I’ve been been looking at model after model after model etc trying to figure out today’s expected icy weather.  Even this morning, five different models are giving different outcomes.  Those results have told me one thing that I didn’t want to know – my expectation for mostly sleet was wrong.  But, it finally brought me the answer.  An old expression from my college days popped into my head – “The last wave on the train is always the strongest”.

I’m not going to explain that now.  Let’s just say the last wave will cross southern and eastern KY this afternoon and evening.  And, it’s a little stronger than the models picked up on earlier.  That changes everything.

In general, the added strength of the wave will slow the progress of the cold air south of the Ohio River and delay the onset of freezing rain entering Kentucky.  The predicted major ice storm won’t get started until most of the moisture is gone.  It’s doubtful that any part of the Commonwealth will get over .25″  of freezing rain.  Most of central and southern KY will see very little.  No big problems with ice.

This last wave will produce periods of moderate rain until about 5 P.M.  Then, as the rain intensity tapers, colder air will arrive.  So we’ll see a few hours of light freezing rain and sleet from about 6- 9 P.M.  After that,  periods of light snow/flurries will continue overnight. Total accumulation of sleet and snow of up to one inch by morning.  Icing of perhaps .1″ to .2″.

Travel conditions should remain generally good through the evening.  As always, the primary concern will be freezing of bridges and overpasses after 6 P.M.

In summary:  the predicted major ice storm will be a dud.

NOTE:  The above discussion refers to Kentucky only.  For Indiana (except for the extreme southern edge), A major winter storm is going on.  From freezing rain and sleet near the river to heavy snows farther north, the Hoosier state travel will be hazardous.


2 thoughts on “A Eureka moment?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *