Monthly Archives: December 2020

Looks like a White Christmas!

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1 P.M. Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020

Short-term models are predicting a significant outbreak of snow showers/flurries this afternoon and evening.  With temperatures in the 20’s, snow will accumulate and slick roads will develop.  With the cold air around, the light, fluffy snow could accumulate to several inches this evening.  Water content will be very low, but dry snow accumulation features plenty of air to fluff it up.  The low water content, however, should allow roads to stay  in fairly good shape.

Snow should begin in Louisville area by mid afternoon.  Accumulating snow will end before midnight.  The whole area should get about an inch of snow. However, systems like this usually form some heavier “cells” of snow showers.  If one of these hits you, 2″-4″ inches will be likely.

So as an estimate:  within a 40 mile radius of Louisville…                                                                        up to 1″ – near 100%                                                                                                                                        1″-2″ –   about 50% of the area                                                                                                                      2″-4″ –  about 20%                                                                                                                                            4″+   – about 5%

Since yesterday, I found the traditional greeting for the season

Lo Saturnalia   (lo is pronounced    “yo”)

Saturnalia is the reason Christmas is celebrated on Dec. 25th

 

Very cold for Christmas

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6 P.M. Wed., Dec. 23, 2020

Rain likely tonight…probably ending 2-3 A.M.  No snow, as cold enough air won’t arrive until daybreak.

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold tomorrow – some flurries possible .

Tomorrow night continues with mostly cloudy and cold with flurries possible.

Best chance for snow will be Christmas morning as an upper air system tries to wring out some moisture.  Some minor accumulations (less than an inch) possible.  Christmas day will be very cold with highs mostly in the low 20’s

Note:  Snow is likely over eastern KY (mostly along and east of I-75) tomorrow into Christmas Day.  Around an inch near Lexington but the far eastern mountainous areas could see 2″-4″.

Happy Saturnalia!!!  (The real “reason for the season.”

11 P.M. update

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11 PM Dec. 15, 2020

Evening models  have shifted everything about 30-40 miles farther north than earlier.  That puts the Louisville area into the little or nothing snow category.  Meanwhile, 1″-3″ inches of wet snow remains likely in all but extreme southern Indiana.

 

Snow is in the air!

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Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2020

Seems like the thoughts of snow have brought me out of hibernation.  So, here come some thoughts on yet another one of our rain/sleet/snow situations…

In general, an active upper air trough will swing out of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley to the east coast by late tomorrow.  Ordinarily, that would bring us some rain under the current temperature setup.  But, this system features a big twist.  A big lobe of energy has dropped into the far southern part of the system.  That piece of energy will gradually take control and become the primary driver of the spectacular nor’easter expected to drop a foot or two of snow from West VA, PA and to New England by tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, we’ll be left with a dying system over the Ohio Valley.  Thus, total precipitation will probably amount to a quarter-inch or less.  But, in what form will it fall?

One important thing – all models agree that temperatures around 5000 feet above the surface will stay below freezing.  That definitely keeps snow in play.  Also important is when the dying upper air system trudges up the Ohio River, temperatures in the lower atmosphere will warm.  That pushes the odds for rain/drizzle higher.

Forecast

Put a line about 20 miles south of the Ohio River.

If you live south of that line, you’ll see a rain/snow mix after 3 A.M. changing to rain after an hour or two.  By daybreak, it’ll be rain/drizzle through midday.  Possible flurries late afternoon/evening.

For the rest of us,  here’s how I think it’ll work – Clouds will thicken this evening while local temperatures drop into the mid thirties.   Around 3 A.M. some snow should begin.  Mixed with rain and/or sleet, it’ll continue until about daybreak.  Little accumulation on roadways, but grassy areas could see 1″-2″ locally.  Up to 3″ farther north of the river.

After daybreak, we’ll see periods of light snow, rain and mostly drizzle through the morning.  No additional accumulation is expected.  In fact, most of the overnight snow should melt away.  Snow flurries will be likely again as colder air arrives late afternoon into the evening