Update  5:25 P.M.

The line of storms did strengthen, but not much.  Line should push across Jefferson County without any significant problems.  East of Jefferson County, the line should be stronger, with possibly a severe storm warning or two this evening.

On the positive side, the squall line will actually decrease the strong wind fields  for an hour or two

Update  4:45 P.M.

Radar IS showing a definite uptick in strength of the approaching thunderstorms.  Between now and 6 P.M., expect a line of strong thunderstorms to move across the metro area.  Expect brief heavy downpours, additional strong gust winds and possibly some hail.

4:15 P.M. Thurs., March 14, 2019

Line of storms still crawling eastward

As of 4 P.M. the only strong-to-severe thunderstorm left is racing across northern Clark Co. IN.

Elsewhere, the remaining narrow line of storms still lies west of the Louisville area.  No severe activity has been noted in the part of the line headed our way.

The items above have worked about as expected since the weakening trend noticed a couple of hours ago.  However, we are not out of the woods yet.  One of the two short-term models predicts the line to re-intensify as it approaches I-65 and become strong again east of I-65 for a few hours this evening. That’s the HRRR model.  It’s partner, the RAP, does not.

As of this time, local radar does not show any rebuilding… yet.  If that continues and the RAP is correct, we should have minimal effects from the squall line. However, we’ll have to watch out for any intensification of the line as that would increase the potential for possible severe wind gusts – especially along and east of I-65.

WOW

I just noticed that the airport reported 61 mph wind gusts earlier this afternoon.  Bowman Field’s top gust reached 56 mph.  Ft Knox topped out at 53 mph.  Mostly likely, if we do get thunderstorms in the next hour or two, they won’t match those winds!

2 P.M. update

Thursday, March 14, 2019

1).  Recent data shows the upper and lower atmosphere are beginning to “uncouple.”  That means the “sweet spot” of atmospheric conditions that has spawned the severe weather to our west for the past few hours is beginning to fade.

2).  The weakening has enabled the line of storms to slow its eastward progression.

3).  New “best estimate” for pushing through Louisville Metro is now 4:30 to 6 P.M.

4).  Until then, surface winds will continue to be very gusty – up to around 40-45 mph.

5).  When thunderstorms arrive, the primary threat will be strong wind gusts – up to 50 mph or so.  Tornado threat has lowered.

1 P.M. update

Supercells still forming over west KY into SW IN.  Several tornadoes have been reported.

Adjust time of arrival in Louisville area to 3 P.M. – 5 P.M. Otherwise, discussion below still looks okay.

March 14, 2019  Noon

Potentially Damaging Storms late this afternoon

One change since yesterday’s post is the addition of additional moisture into the equation.  The very strong wind fields are still in place.  Now with the added moisture, it looks like nature’s two primary severe weather producers – dynamics and thermodynamics – will interact for a few hours this afternoon.  Luckily for us, the worst should be over before reaching the Louisville area.

Super cells are moving along the Ohio River in western KY and southern IL.  Several warnings have already been issued.  This area of severe weather will move rapidly northeast into southwest IN and then central IN over the next few hours.  It will not affect the Louisville area.

With afternoon heating, additional super cells are likely to form.  Models continue to put the primary threat north of the Ohio River.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional development over western KY early this afternoon.  Any super cell will be capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.

The threat to Louisville area will be between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M.  as a scattered to broken line of thunderstorms moves through.  Primary threat by that time should be strong winds, but depending upon how things evolve over the next few hours, it could get worse (or better).

Updates to follow…