Monthly Archives: October 2017

Weekend rain clarification

5 P.M. Saturday, Oct 7, 2017

Turns out we don’t need Hurricane Nate to get some much-needed rainfall.  A weak cold front entering the lower Ohio Valley has been squeezing out some brief light showers around the Louisville area this afternoon.  So far, the rain has not been enough to ease any soil dryness.  However, from 7 P.M. until Midnight they should become more numerous.  Some spots could get as much as half an inch this evening.

Rains from Nate should reach us tomorrow morning and continue through the afternoon.  Models have shifted Nate’s path slightly west again so my earlier prediction for Nate’s rains will have to pushed up somewhat.

My latest estimates for the Louisville area:

This evening:  about .25″ to .40″  of rain (higher amounts west and north of Louisville)

Sunday:  about .35″ to .80″

NOTE:  Sunday’s rainfall totals will rapidly increase as you head southeast from Louisville.  Southeastern KY may see as much as 6″+ of rain.

Can Nate help us?

Friday, Oct. 6, 2017  11 A.M.

Recent changes cast doubt on current forecast.

This morning’s GFS model run has pushed Nate’s path farther east than the current forecast implies.  If this works out, and it likely will, our local hopes for some very beneficial rain this weekend are dimming.  Current official forecast calls for widespread 1″-2″ rainfall over our area late tomorrow into Sunday.  Forecast  changes this morning would indicate our rainfall will probably be less than half that of the current forecast.

As it looks now, we should get at least some rain this weekend, but not enough to take much of a bite out of our growing drought conditions.  A quarter to half an inch would be nice, but I’m getting the feeling I may be too optimistic.