Category Archives: forecast

Is the GFS messing with us again?

Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020

Not again?!

Today’s GFS is really cutting back on its pattern-reversal forecast.  Today’s runs push any cold phase arrival back a week, at least.  It’s quite a bit weaker than last weeks storm, but another west coast storm is developing and heading toward a northern cut across the central U.S. Saturday.  Following that, Sunday thru Tuesday will be the coldest days we’ve seen in almost a year.

That was supposed to be start of a long term cold period. But, now the GFS is predicting yet another major west coast storm moving into the central Plains the next weekend.  Even after that, it’s holding off on a pattern shift.

The Euro model has been a little hesitant on the magnitude of any pattern change for the past week.  Now, it too is backing off.

The GFS has been doing this to us for six months.  I’m still hoping that one of these times, it’ll actually happen.

Winter arrives (finally) next week.

9 P.M. Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2020

Mild weather continues a few more days

I don’t know how many times over the past six months, our forecast models have predicted a reversal in the upper air pattern over North America, but it’s been often.  Only once (November) did it actually happen.  Now, it’s seems like it will reverse for a second time, starting Sunday.

The shift to west coast ridge/east coast trough is underway.  The strong northwesterly winds aloft will definitely put us into below normal temperatures.  When pattern reversals occur, they generally persist at least 2-3 weeks.  But, this has been unusual winter, to say the least.  When the “cold phase” hit us in November, it lasted about 3 weeks before the “warm phase” took over.  And the warm phase has been around ever since.  Since November 25, we’ve only had six days with below normal temperatures.  For those keeping score, that’s 45 above normal days and only 6 below.

So, are we going to have a “3 week” winter, or will be longer?  Good question.  Answer unknown.

Old rule of thumb:  After 3 weeks, if the upper air winds over us are stronger than when the cold regime began,  it will persist another 3 weeks.  If the winds are weaker than originally, the warm regime will return quickly.

Rest of this week

Official forecast gives Louisville a chance for rain tomorrow.  I’m not buying that although some light rain will be possible over southern KY.

Another midwestern storm is likely late Friday, but it’ll be much weaker than last week’s storm.  We’ll probably see periods of rain from Friday into Saturday.

Then, winter arrives Sunday!  Next chance for snow comes from a weak clipper next Tuesday.

 

Worst of storm is over

Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020  1:30 P.M.

Potential damage area moves east.

After following this storm system for a week,  I still didn’t get it right.  The rain and heavy downpours arrived long before I expected them to – the heaviest rain passed through Jefferson County between Noon and 1 P.M.  Also, in spite of the rain acting as a break, wind gusts reached 50+ mph in a few spots.  Surprisingly, the number of power outages locally are less than 1000 customers.  Even an average spring/summer thunderstorm produces many more than that.

So, overall, the system proved to be a pretty typical midwestern winter storm for us.

This afternoon, the rain will continue, then fade away around dark.  The winds have been silenced for awhile.   They’ll get stronger again as the rain ends, but top gusts tonight will be in the 25-35 mph range.  They’ll be pushing colder air across the Ohio Valley, but nothing unusual for January.  In fact, tomorrow’s temperatures will remain above normal.

Heavy snow tonight…for central Indiana

Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019  2 P.M.

Just rain for Louisville area.

Fairly weak disturbance working northeast will push through the area tonight.  As often, we’re near the borderline between rain and snow.  As moisture increases this afternoon a few spots of very light snow/sleet/rain will probably develop over southern Indiana.

Larger area of rain/snow will probably move to the I-65 corridor by 7-8 P.M.  At onset, some snow and/or sleet may mix in, but will quickly become all rain for most of the night around Louisville.  Any snow of a half inch or more should be at least 30 miles north of Louisville.  But, total snowfall could easily reach 2″-4″ over central Indiana.

Tonight’s precipitation event is part of a much larger storm system that will bring us heavier rain late Monday and Monday night.  As the system moves east, the rain could change to the period of light snow early Tuesday.

Christmas weather

Today’s GFS predicts unseasonably warm weather for most of Christmas week.  Temperatures could reach the 60’s at least a couple of days, including Christmas Day.  No White Christmas this year.

Snow tonight

Not much, but it’s a good start

Monday, November 11, 2019

Forecasters and forecast models all seem to be on the same page with the cold front moving through this evening.  Late afternoon rain should change over to light snow between 7 – 8 P.M. around the metro area.  Snow should be light and be over by midnight.  Then a wintry blast of cold air takes over for a few days.

It’ll probably take about 1-2 hours after the snow begins before temperatures drop below freezing. Nevertheless, we’ll probably see a little snow on grassy areas – up to 1″ in colder suburban areas.  No more than a few icy spots on roads, especially bridges and overpasses.  No problems are expected for the morning rush hour(s).

Stuff:

No wonder squirrels seem busy these days.  It takes at least 100 acorns for an average squirrel to make it through a winter.

 

Take your pick

Sat. Oct 26, 2019 3 P.M

Windy and wet

As I usually do when I get up in the morning, I turn on NOAA Weather Radio to get an idea on what the latest ideas are.  I didn’t get much help today.  Rain…yes, but that has been pretty obvious for the past couple of days.

But, high winds were also expected today.  Here’s what I got… from the “official forecast” the winds were predicted for this afternoon to be 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  However, there was also a Wind Advisory.  That said late afternoon gusts would be 40-45 mph with a few gusts possibly reaching 50 mph.  Well, there is quite a difference between 30 mph and 50 mph gusts.  Thirty is pretty ordinary; fifty can create significant damage. So we’re getting two very different forecasts at the same time!  Probably should have just used the word “windy” and let everybody decide for themselves.

At least the Noon forecast updated the gusts up to 35 mph, but that doesn’t change the situation very much.

Meanwhile, the latest short term models have been lowering their wind predictions.  Current indications point to the strongest wind gusts should be between 4 and 7 P.M.  My best current estimate is for gusts reaching 35 and 40 mph with perhaps into the low 40’s

U of L’s Homecoming game should see those gusty winds and about a 50-50 mix of showers/no showers during the game.

UK’s game should also see a rain/no rain mix.  However, the winds should be quite a bit weaker.  Top gusts around 30 mph or so.

Mystery forecast?

Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2019

Spent some time this morning and again this afternoon looking at the GFS and NAM forecasts for the rest of the week.  Both models move a full-latitude trough into the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night.  It’ll positive-tilted, so no major storm development is expected here.  But, there’s almost certainly going to be plenty of moisture around with a large area getting rain, especially Friday night.

Then I checked the National Weather Service’s forecast.  This morning they had a 20% chance for rain Friday.  Now, the Friday/Friday night forecast has no mention of rain at all!

I’ve said this thousands of times..things change.  And I’m certain Friday won’t turn out exactly as the models are saying now.  But, if your two most important forecast tools are practically yelling “rain” at you, shouldn’t you at least mention the possibility in your forecast?

Much weaker than advertised

Ohio Valley part of storm fades

Oct. 21, 2019 4 P.M.

Since late last week I’ve been hearing all these horror stories about today’s weather – heavy rain, flash flooding, possible severe storms, strong winds, etc.

Well, Monday has arrived and only (mostly) one part of the forecast will be correct.  We have had strong winds – gusts in the mid 30’s.  Although we were led to believe they’d be about 10 mph stronger.

Periods of rain are likely through about 9 P.M. though total rainfall should be about a quarter-inch or less.   A little lightning will be possible around 8 P.M.  Winds will still remain gusty- gusts possible of 30-35 mph late afternoon but diminishing this evening.

Stuff

This situation brought back a story about a former WAVE weathercaster from waaaay back.  He had predicted the next day to be sunny, windy and warm.  Instead, we had a cloudy, cool, rainy and windy day.

His next broadcast began this way…”See, I told you it was going to be windy today!”

Really?!

Nit Picking

Noon Oct.9,2019

Just checked the afternoon forecast from the NWS.  Cloudy with a high in the upper 70’s.

Here we are sitting under cloudy skies, light NE winds at about 60 degrees.  How are we going to get almost 20 degrees of warming over the next 4-5 hours?  We’re not.  Even if the clouds cleared immediately, we’d be hard pressed to get that warm.  In reality, clouds should begin to thin by 3-4 P.M.  Even with thinning clouds, we’ll be lucky to reach the low 70’s.  Around 70 seems more likely.

What’s up?  Isn’t anyone paying attention?

Stuff

A little perspective…

Slashing and burning of the Amazon has been going on for decades.  All of a sudden this year, it became the “climate destruction gang’s” next big thing on the climate agenda.  But why now?  The  average amount of deforestation over the past five years has been only about 50% of what was occurring 20 years ago.

Don’t get me wrong on this, Amazon deforestation is (and has been) a big climate problem.  But, programs have been ongoing for years to reduce the burning.  Success has been modest, but this certainly is not a new problem.

Not much more to say about Dorian

Six P.M. Thursday, Sept 5, 2019

Dorian approaching North Carolina

Dorian is weakening but still poses a threat to  SE North Carolina. It’ll move along, perhaps touching, the coast tonight and exit off of Cape Hatteras around midday tomorrow.

So, we sit back and wait to see the results.  It certainly won’t be as bad as some of the projections issued earlier this week.  But, it still looks like beach erosion will be extensive.

Some of the video from the northern Bahamas look almost unbelievable.