Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 3 P.M.

Well, my “one question remains” comment from yesterday certainly got answered resoundingly. Plenty of snow had time to fall before sleet entered the picture. Looks like 6″-8″ inches in my yard while we’re in a temporary pause. Sure missed that part of the forecast, but the storm’s not over yet.

As snow returns later it’ll be mixed with sleet with sleet becoming dominant by late afternoon. Then sleet turns over to freezing rain tonight. The sleet and rain will compact the snow so that by morning snow depth will be less than it is now. Biggest concern now is for freezing drizzle after Midnight which may have the capacity to create some icing on limbs/wires toward morning. I still think it’ll not be enough to create significant problems.

Tomorrow, periods of light snow/flurries will return, but accumulation will be light – up to an inch.

Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025 7 P.M.

Putting the recent forecast model runs together, the general pattern looks about the same as it did yesterday. The biggest doubt remaining is how much snow/sleet? Basically, how much snow falls before sleet takes over. The old reliable GFS expects 4-6 hours of snow which could build about a 4″ snow cover. The NAM models show sleet mixing in earlier, so about a 1″-3″ snow depth. The NAM models also show a snow pattern I had expected to see – an almost perfect match to a trick learned way back in my college days. So, here’s how it looks to me…

Snow begins around 9 A.M. tomorrow and continues through early afternoon when sleet joins the party. Somewhere around 2 P.M. we’ll have a snow depth of about 1″-3″. Sleet then becomes the main player and could “solidify” the snow into about 2″-3″ by evening.

Then, the freezing rain takes over for about 4-5 hours. This will make the ground very slushy and possibly create urban road problems if slush has blocked storm sewers. This will not result in damaging icing conditions.

Around Midnight or so, any steady precipitation will pause for about six hours. Patchy areas of freezing drizzle will form during this time. If we’re going to see any potentially problematic icing it’ll be during this time. But, I don’t think it’ll amount to that much.

During the Monday morning rush some light snow and flurries will return and gradually fade away during the afternoon.

By the time it’s all over, expect 1″ – 3″ of snow/ice.

This forecast is for the Louisville area. Less of every thing as you head south. Meanwhile, some very heavy snow will fall over southern Indiana. From about Scottsburg north to Indy, a swath of snow of up to 8″ to 12″ is possible.

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 6 P.M.

The potential Winter Storm we’ve been watching for the past few days is continuing to follow the scenario described by the GFS model. The NAM has chimed in today with roughly the same idea.

Without getting too deep into the subtle changes today (mostly timing), here’s my latest expectations for the late weekend weather.

Snow should begin by late Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon. Sleet should mix into the snow during the afternoon, then become the dominant feature by late afternoon. By evening, we should have 1″-3″ inches of snow/sleet on the ground.

Around 6-8 P.M. freezing rain/rain takes over. Six to seven hours of freezing rain/rain should wipe out most of the snow cover. However, due to the rain’s intensity, there won’t be much ice buildup on trees/power lines…yet.

After Midnight, we’ll see about six hours (or so) of little to no precipitation. Unfortunately, during that time, periods of freezing drizzle will be likely. Should be enough to create icy limbs and power lines, but not enough to create any widespread problems.

By daylight Monday morning, light snow returns to the area and continues much of the day. Final snow accumulation will likely be about 1″-3″.

NOTE: Above forecast is for Louisville area. Significantly more snow/ice is likely starting about 20 miles north of I-64 in Indiana and northeastward into northern KY.

Another update tomorrow.

Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 4 P.M.

Yesterday I mentioned the GFS model had become a little “warmer” than it was Tuesday. That trend has continued today…pushing the heaviest snow forecast northward into central Indiana.

That puts our outlook for snow on a downward cycle. Yesterday’s 8″ forecast has now dropped to around 2″ for Louisville with a rapid drop south of town.

Instead, our main concern is likely to be freezing rain. Although we expect a large amount of rain/freezing rain Sunday afternoon, melting should prevent any serious problems.

It’s only Thursday, so more changes are likely before Sunday. It’s not unusual for the GFS model to continue to warm as the event nears.

Meanwhile, here’s today’s forecast for the weekend… Onset of storm should be about daybreak Sunday with light snow and sleet. An inch or two of snow will be likely before a change to freezing rain occurs by late morning. Freezing rain/rain through the afternoon, perhaps heavy at times.

By evening precipitation fades for about six hours. Freezing drizzle is likely at times. (This will probably be the time that ice accumulations are most likely.)

After Midnight, colder air moves in with periods of light snow/flurries begining and continuing into Monday afternoon. Another inch or two of snow will be possible.

Another update tomorrow!

THINK SNOW

Wed. Jan.1, 2025 6 PM

GFS model is flexing its snow muscles pointing toward a big storm shaping up for Sunday into Monday. Plenty of time for subtle changes.

But, the current model run brings around 8″ of snow to our area Sunday into into Monday morning. Possible problem: model brings in (unneeded) warming to the lower atmosphere. This could be a real deal breaker as it suggests sleet/freezing rain would reduce snow totals. Another possible problem: yesterday the model kept the bulk of the snow/ice farther south. Additional “track shifts” over the next few days could make significant changes to the snow/ice mixture and location.

Stay tuned. Lots of fun for forecasters over next few days!

Saturday, Jan.21, 2023 6 P.M.

I’ve been watching the models’ handling of the next two storms headed our way. Both have been indicating a cold rain for tomorrow and for Tuesday night/Wednesday. The second on will be much stronger (for us).

Yesterday, words like snow, sleet and freezing rain started entering the forecast. A deeper dive into the weather data made me believe those words shouldn’t be there. The atmospheric setup just isn’t cold enough.

A storm developing over Texas tonight will advance ENE over the Gulf Coastal states tonight and tomorrow before turning up the Atlantic Coast tomorrow night. With the storm staying so far to our south, we’ll be on the northern fringes, so rain totals will be on the light side.

Models agree that the rain/snow line will be at least 30 miles north of the Ohio River. So, don’t be surprised if we see a little wet snow mix in from time to time. Basically, though, we’re expecting just a cold, rainy morning. Then rain will slide eastward by early afternoon.

Models also point to another (mostly) rain event by midweek, so snow lovers are probably in for another disappointment with that system.

Meanwhile, global models are pointing toward below normal temperatures here for the next week or two. So, we’ll see additional snow chances ahead.