Monthly Archives: March 2022

Quick update on tonight’s snow forecast

Friday, March 11, 2022  Noon

In reference to yesterday’s blog, as expected the NAM still seems to have the better solution.  The GFS and other models now pretty much agree with the NAM.  On the large scale picture the result should be overall less snowfall for eastern KY and the Appalachian region than previously expected.

For Louisville area, my latest idea is this.  Rain/snow arrives in Louisville area around 6-7 P.M.  Snow becomes dominate from 8 P.M. until Midnight.  Only flurries after that.  Temperatures remain around 32 degrees during the snow so major roadways will only see minor accumulations due to above freezing surface temperatures.  Snow accumulations  on grassy areas should be up to one inch in metro area with higher accumulations south/east of Louisville.  Highest accumulations (2″ – 4″) along central I-75 and east.

Mostly sunny tomorrow with high around 30, but back to near 50 by Sunday.

Winter makes a brief comeback

Thursday, March 10, 2022  6 P.M.

All week the models have been predicting a seasonably cold air mass to reach our area late tomorrow.  They were expecting a quick drop in temperatures from the 50’s during the afternoon, then dropping to near 30 by Midnight.  Meanwhile, the cold air would be able to squeeze some snow out of our relatively dry air.  Snow forecasts averaged about an inch.  Cold air would stick around Saturday with a strong warming beginning Sunday.

Then, this morning’s models started to upgrade the situation(s).  I use the plural because this morning the GFS and NAM models had two distinctly different solutions on how this situation will play out.  The primary headline is that they both end with the same large scale solution – a large spring snowstorm dropping 4″-6″ over southern  and eastern KY tomorrow night then sweep along the Appalachians with 5″-8″ of snow Saturday.

Without getting into too much explanation, while getting to the big picture the GFS paints a snowier picture for us near the Ohio River.  The GFS puts about an inch of snow for far southern Indiana.  About 40 miles either side of the river it predicts about 1″-2″ of snow.  Sliding south and east of Louisville you quickly get to 3″, then 4″+.

The NAM, on the other hand, keeps the band of heavier snows farther south of the Ohio River.  It predicts about 1″ for Louisville (lower north of the river, more south of the city).

As I’ve mentioned before, normally the GFS is a little better than the NAM.  In this case, however, I like the NAM’s solution – about an inch of snow tomorrow night from about 8 P.M. until 1 A.M.

We’ll give it another look tomorrow.