Monday 1:30 P.M. May 11

A Tornado Watch for areas north of the Ohio River (and a small area of Kentucky near Cincinnati) has been recently issued.  But, a quick look at the radar clearly shows any threat to the Louisville has already moved east of the Louisville.

Models are in good agreement that a process known as “bridging” is occurring over the lower Ohio Valley.  That definitely is a downer for severe storms locally AND could very well mean no rain at all from this system.  That’s another big downer since it looks like we won’t get another serious rain chance until early next week.

Meanwhile, back to bridging – sometimes when a storm system moves northwest of us (the big weekend storm-maker is finally leaving the southern plains) it shifts most of the energy northward toward the Great Lakes while leaving a lot of the major moisture over the south. Then, mid-level winds become westerly and drive a wedge of drier air between the northern energy and the southern moisture.  That’s exactly what’s happening today.

Yes, there is a threat from severe (maybe tornadic) storms with the northern system, but not over southern Indiana.  Best chance of severe storms lies north of Indianapolis.  Meanwhile the southern part of the system now is energy-shy but should still produce thunderstorms later today from Tennessee southward.

So, where does that leave us?  Pretty much in no-man’s land.  Bridging is occurring over southern Indiana and most of Kentucky.  There’s still a chance we’ll see showers or a thunderstorm between 5 and 8 P.M., but the probability has dropped to the 20%-30% range.

Oh well, at least it’ll be cooler tomorrow.