Sunday, July 21, 2024 4 P.M.

After a couple of big misses last week, the NWS is back with another strange (to me) forecast. A weak upper level pattern will change little over the Ohio Valley for the next few days. This will send a few more (today’s clouds) small upper air disturbances our way through Tuesday, at least.

As our atmosphere slowly moistens, rain chances will be increasing through Tuesday. Both the GFS and NAM models show the most likely time for rain will be Tuesday (afternoon). I agree.

The NWS forecast as of 3:50 P.M. has these rain chances: tonight 30%, tomorrow 50%, tomorrow night 50% and Tuesday 30%.

I’d suggest something like 20% tonight, 30% tomorrow and tomorrow night, then about 60-70% Tuesday.

We’ll see how it works out.

Note: very old forecast rule…The last wave on the train is always the strongest.

Tuesday, July 16, 2024 5:00 P.M.

1). Models beginning to downplay rainfall expections while National Weather Service issues Flood Watch.

2). Thunderstorms possibly forming along and/or south of the Ohio River tomorrow afternoon.

As mentioned above, forecast models have basically cut in half the previously predicted heavy overnight rain. Most models now keep total rainfall less than one inch overnight. Current timing hints at 2 A.M. to 10 A.M. as the most likely hours.

As the overnight/morning rainfall moves away, we should have several hours without rainfall. But the cold front causing this episode will lag behind the morning rain.

Then, the front, given a few hours to allow daytime heating, will develop a new line of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Starting about 2-3 P.M. the new line is expected to pop up near the Ohio River and then move rapidly southeast later in the afternoon.

Stuff

When Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860, he did not vote for himself. Reason: he wanted to remain “impartial” to let the public decide.

Tuesday, June 25, 2024 5:15 PM

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving rapidly southeast from IN toward KY. The storms should cross the Ohio River around 6 P.M. However, an outflow boundary from this system will arrive 20-30 minutes before the storms. This boundary will reduce temperatures and dew points before the line of storms arrives. Thus, some of the fuel needed to reach “severe” status will be eliminated.

Strong gusty winds will be likely with some minor damage possible, but an outbreak of severe weather is not expected.

6 P.M May 8, 2024

Latest model updates indicate two episodes of showers/storms tonight. The first will be here roughly 7-9 PM. As mentioned before, any severe storms with this system are likely to stay south of the Louisville area.

Second system will be around 1-5 AM. It’ll be a little stronger than the first system. However, any severe storms with this system are also likely to stay south of Louisville area.

Wed. May 8, 2024 5 P.M.

5:15 P.M. update to adjust timing… Rain showers should arrive in Louisville by around 6 P.M. Most of the severe storms over western KY are taking a path which will keep them south of Louisville – KY areas along and south of the Parkway will see the brunt of the storm activity over the next few hours.

Meanwhile, another severe cluster in the Owensboro to Evansville area could bring storms to the Louisville area between 7 and 9 P.M.

Original post below….

Today has been a very active severe weather day. Severe systems from yesterday continued overnight with severe weather (mostly hail). The storms have remained active today and are now becoming stronger and more numerous.

Western Kentucky has had significant hail storms most of the day. We are now seeing a new batch of storms developing rapidly and moving northeast. This cluster of potentially severe storms will arrive in the Louisville area between 6 and 7 P.M. Areas southwest of Louisville will see the storms sooner while areas north east of the city will see a later arrival. The Storm Prediction Center expects this to be an “all threats” situation. Large hail remains the greatest threat, but high winds and possibly some tornadoes may also develop.

Biggest threat to our region will end before Midnight as the system moves east.  

Stuff

47 states have at least one billionaire who lives there. The states without such a wealthy person are Alaska, Delaware and West Virginia

Thursday, May 2, 2024 5:30 P.M.

The forecast for Oaks Day has called for rain since late last week. Then, Derby Day weather looked very good. Earlier this week, the Derby Day forecast started to look questionable as well. As we approach these two “special” days, the picture has become clearer along with better news.

First, a weak upper air disturbance coming out of Texas today will cross the lower Ohio Valley late tonight/tomorrow morning. This will bring us rain and possible thundershowers during that time frame. However, recent model trends show the rain moving east of I-65 between Noon and 2 P.M. So, Oaks Day should get off to a wet start but the prime racing hours during mid to late afternoon should be rain-free. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with muggy temperatures reaching about 80 by late afternoon.

Second, another (even weaker) upper air system will cross over TN into WV tomorrow night. Any rain from this system should remain over southern and eastern KY. As this system moves east Saturday, it will leave behind a very pleasant Derby Day for us – sunny to partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures reaching as high as 83-85 degrees!

Now, if I could just figure out the horses!

“Choose the horse’s number or like his name; You just can’t beat the betting game.”

Stuff: There are more golf courses (16,000) in the United States than McDonald’s restuarants (13,000).

5:25 P.M. Tuesday April 2, 2024

Activity has acted as suspected. Heaviest storms are over southern IN – along and north of I-265 in Floyd Co, – moving rapidly ENE. Over KY a narrow line of storms is moving ENE onto Louisville area. Strong winds are biggest threat, but the threat is certainly much less than SPC’s Watch of a few hours ago led me to believe. Storms will be generally weakening as they cross our area over the next two hours.

Some mostly minor damage can be expected.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 3:50

The Storm Prediction Center is about to Issue a Tornado Watch for southern IN and central KY. Louisville is right in the middle of the Watch.

The main focus for severe weather today was expected to be mostly eastern Kentucky, but clouds from this morning’s storms have held temperatures down to levels where it has been hard to generate instability.

Meanwhile, the weak cool front/dry line crossing western IN southwestward into Tennessee has been slowly trying to generate thunderstorms. The area has the advantage of warming sunshine to induce greater instability. The upper winds are very strong, so severe weather can be expected from any thunderstorm that can form. The wind fields are conducive to tornado formation. Any supercell that manages to develop in this situation could easily produce strong (F2 or higher) tornadoes. Instability required to manufacture strong thunderstorms is somewhat limited, but if supercells can form, we’re in for trouble.

At this time (4 :15 P.M.) the strongest storms are over southwest IN moving northeast at 50-60 mph. That puts southern IN under the greatest threat of damaging weather now. In this case, damaging weather should stay 30-40 miles north of the Ohio River. Primary time for storms to arrive in Louisville area will be 5:30 P.M. until 7:30 P.M.

Currently, thunderstorms in western KY are having a tough time developing. If that trend continues, the threat for damaging weather over the Louisville area will be low.

More later.

Feb.27, 2024 11 PM

Southern part of system has been slow to develope, but should become quite active in the next few hours. 1st round of storms mentioned earlier will not be a factor. Activity will be concentrated on both sides of the cold front scheduled to arrive in area around 6 AM.

Thus, 4-7 AM looks to be “prime time” for severe weather. This system is packed with energy, so strong to very strong winds (50-75 mph) will be possible. In addition, hail will be possible. Some tornadoes are likely to be scattered across the area.

Tornado Watch until 6 AM. Storm Prediction Center puts us at a moderate risk for high winds, hail, tornadoes and strong tornadoes (EF 2 or higher). Widespread power outages are expected

Keep alert for possible warnings late tonight.

Atmospheric conditions are lining up in a familiar pattern. It’s a pattern that often wreaks havoc over the Gulf Coast states during winter nights.

This time, the system is farther north and seems to have its sights along the Ohio River later tonight. The moisture component is weak, but the dynamic wind patterns are very strong. That should easily overcome the moisture problem

A storm system developing over IL will send a strong cold front into the Ohio Valley overnight. As that encounters somewhat wetter air to our west, I expect two lines of thunderstorms to form tonight. A prefrontal line should in the area about 2-4 AM. Strong wind gusts are possible (50 mph+) as they pass over.

The cold frontal line should be here roughly 5-7AM. It should be even stronger. The Storm Prediction Center says wind gusts could reach as high as 75 mph. In addition, due to the enhanced wind fields, some tornados will be likely.

At the least, I expect we’ll see widespread power outages.

Keep alert tonight!