Active weather continues.

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021  6 P.M.

The upper air disturbances keep coming our way.  It was nice to actually watch the snow today…seems what little snow we’ve had this winter has fallen at night.

Afternoon flurries will fade away tonight.  No problems are expected in the metro area as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing.

Another upper air system will move across the region tomorrow.  Louisville’s weather should be much the same as today – periods of light snow but no accumulation.  The snow will be a little heavier in southern Indiana where some minor accumulations are possible.

At least  we’ll get to see it snow again!

Light snow tonight and…

Friday, Jan. 15, 2021

Situation is developing pretty much as described in yesterday’s post…check that for more details.  Meanwhile…

Tonight:  periods of light snow.  accumulations range from “a dusting” up to one inch by morning.

Tomorrow: a few flurries possible while Friday night’s snow melts away.

Late tomorrow night/Sunday:  another round of light snow begins (especially north of the Ohio River).  Little or no accumulation in Louisville area.  However, 1″- 2″ possible over south central Indiana.

P.S.
That possible storm around 1/24 has dropped out of the models…too warm for snow.  But we will get colder air for the last week of January.

Our atmosphere’s cranking up some storms

Thursday, January 14, 20216 P.M.

Lot’s of activity, but still lacking cold air

Temperatures have been mild this winter so far.  The short cold spell around Christmas is about the coldest we’ve been.  And, overall, the weather here has been rather quiet.  But, part of that equation is about to change.

Weather patterns are really expected to pick up over the next ten days as a major upper air trough over central is expected to expand and slowly move eastward.  That eastward shift opens up the opportunity to push some significant cold air south over the eastern U.S., but not until about 7-10 days from now.

Meanwhile, upper air patterns are going to start moving quickly across the country.  The first one will move over the northern Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow.  Some scattered light showers will be likely this evening, but they will be of little consequence since the Gulf of Mexico is shut off from this system.  As colder air arrives tomorrow a few rain and/or snow showers will be possible.  Best chance for snow showers will be tomorrow night with accumulations up to one inch on grassy areas.  Temperatures should remain above freezing, so no major road problems are expected.   Some flurries could continue Saturday.

Sunday another disturbance will float over the area.  Once again Gulf moisture will be missing, so snow potential will be on the low side – probably up to a half-inch or so.

At least a couple more disturbances will hit the area next week, but there won’t be enough cold air to make snow…just cold rain.

It’s a long way off, but a storm expected next weekend should be quite strong and offer a rain-changing-to-snow situation.  It might be strong enough to push us into a “colder than normal” weather pattern.

Deja Vu

Monday, January 11, 2021  6 P.M.

It’s happened again!

Yesterday’s post was about a little “pet peeve” about the National Weather Service’s failure to update forecasts when they go bad.  For details, read yesterday’s comments.  Well, it really surprised me to see the same situation again today.  Only this time, the forecast also hit upon another one of may pet peeves.

Today’s forecast called for mostly cloudy skies this morning with skies becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon.  A late morning look at the situation showed that clearing, if any, would be very slow this afternoon.  So a forecast update then should have been a downgrade to at least “mostly cloudy” or , even better, “cloudy.” But, since midday updates aren’t required anymore, nothing happened.

My second pet peeve of the day is this…many times the morning forecast contains messaging for “this morning” and “this afternoon” rather than “today.”  That’s good.  After all, weather does change.  To me, it seems like a sensible idea that around Noon the forecast should be reissued removing the “this morning” wording.  Makes sense to me.  But, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gone to the NWS forecast during the afternoon and the first phrase of the forecast contains the words “this morning.”  It’s just common sense.

Stuff

One of my favorite quotes…Common sense isn’t.

The “good old days”

Sunday, January 10, 2021  12:30 P.M.

One of things I miss from the old days is the updated forecasts issued by the NWS around 11:30 A.M. and P.M.  Forecasts were not as accurate in those days, so the updates to the “prime” morning and evening forecasts were sometimes needed.

Somewhere along the line it was decided that the morning and evening forecasts were all that was needed.  Updates became hard to find.  Today’s forecast is a perfect example why that may not be such a good thing.

When I got up this morning, my radio told me “sunny skies today with a high near 40.”   But it wasn’t sunny, so I went to the NWS site to see what they were saying.  There I found a forecast for Jefferson County of “partly cloudy with a high in the upper 30’s.”  Ok, that was still in play.  Later, however, taking a little closer look at the actual weather data and satellite imagery, I noticed that the models predicted the sunnier part of the day to be during the morning with clouds increasing again during the afternoon.  A quick look at satellite views shows increasing clouds advancing eastward from western KY.

So, now the morning forecast no longer seems to be “in play.”  In the old days, the 11:30 A.M. update would (should?)  have put the forecast back on track.  But, at last glance, the incorrect forecast still stands.  Surely someone at the NWS would want to correct it (and drop the “high” to the mid 30’s).

Stuff

The music for the song, Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star, is the same tune that is used in the ABC song we use to teach children the A, B, C’s.

The composer of that music was Mozart!

Looks like a White Christmas!

1 P.M. Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020

Short-term models are predicting a significant outbreak of snow showers/flurries this afternoon and evening.  With temperatures in the 20’s, snow will accumulate and slick roads will develop.  With the cold air around, the light, fluffy snow could accumulate to several inches this evening.  Water content will be very low, but dry snow accumulation features plenty of air to fluff it up.  The low water content, however, should allow roads to stay  in fairly good shape.

Snow should begin in Louisville area by mid afternoon.  Accumulating snow will end before midnight.  The whole area should get about an inch of snow. However, systems like this usually form some heavier “cells” of snow showers.  If one of these hits you, 2″-4″ inches will be likely.

So as an estimate:  within a 40 mile radius of Louisville…                                                                        up to 1″ – near 100%                                                                                                                                        1″-2″ –   about 50% of the area                                                                                                                      2″-4″ –  about 20%                                                                                                                                            4″+   – about 5%

Since yesterday, I found the traditional greeting for the season

Lo Saturnalia   (lo is pronounced    “yo”)

Saturnalia is the reason Christmas is celebrated on Dec. 25th

 

Very cold for Christmas

6 P.M. Wed., Dec. 23, 2020

Rain likely tonight…probably ending 2-3 A.M.  No snow, as cold enough air won’t arrive until daybreak.

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold tomorrow – some flurries possible .

Tomorrow night continues with mostly cloudy and cold with flurries possible.

Best chance for snow will be Christmas morning as an upper air system tries to wring out some moisture.  Some minor accumulations (less than an inch) possible.  Christmas day will be very cold with highs mostly in the low 20’s

Note:  Snow is likely over eastern KY (mostly along and east of I-75) tomorrow into Christmas Day.  Around an inch near Lexington but the far eastern mountainous areas could see 2″-4″.

Happy Saturnalia!!!  (The real “reason for the season.”

11 P.M. update

11 PM Dec. 15, 2020

Evening models  have shifted everything about 30-40 miles farther north than earlier.  That puts the Louisville area into the little or nothing snow category.  Meanwhile, 1″-3″ inches of wet snow remains likely in all but extreme southern Indiana.

 

Snow is in the air!

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2020

Seems like the thoughts of snow have brought me out of hibernation.  So, here come some thoughts on yet another one of our rain/sleet/snow situations…

In general, an active upper air trough will swing out of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley to the east coast by late tomorrow.  Ordinarily, that would bring us some rain under the current temperature setup.  But, this system features a big twist.  A big lobe of energy has dropped into the far southern part of the system.  That piece of energy will gradually take control and become the primary driver of the spectacular nor’easter expected to drop a foot or two of snow from West VA, PA and to New England by tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, we’ll be left with a dying system over the Ohio Valley.  Thus, total precipitation will probably amount to a quarter-inch or less.  But, in what form will it fall?

One important thing – all models agree that temperatures around 5000 feet above the surface will stay below freezing.  That definitely keeps snow in play.  Also important is when the dying upper air system trudges up the Ohio River, temperatures in the lower atmosphere will warm.  That pushes the odds for rain/drizzle higher.

Forecast

Put a line about 20 miles south of the Ohio River.

If you live south of that line, you’ll see a rain/snow mix after 3 A.M. changing to rain after an hour or two.  By daybreak, it’ll be rain/drizzle through midday.  Possible flurries late afternoon/evening.

For the rest of us,  here’s how I think it’ll work – Clouds will thicken this evening while local temperatures drop into the mid thirties.   Around 3 A.M. some snow should begin.  Mixed with rain and/or sleet, it’ll continue until about daybreak.  Little accumulation on roadways, but grassy areas could see 1″-2″ locally.  Up to 3″ farther north of the river.

After daybreak, we’ll see periods of light snow, rain and mostly drizzle through the morning.  No additional accumulation is expected.  In fact, most of the overnight snow should melt away.  Snow flurries will be likely again as colder air arrives late afternoon into the evening

 

The Land of “I”

Sunday, June 28, 2020  8 P.M.

Disappointing rain, so far.

Weather Service has really cranked up the rain probabilities recently and continues them well into the week.  The best chances for wide spread rains, however, seem to be over.  Lots of rain yesterday, last night and this morning.  Soaking, even flooding, rains fell over central Indiana and most of Kentucky, but not here.  Along and north of I-64 there was about a 60 mile wide area with very little rain.  Plenty of rain north and from southern Jefferson County southward.  But most of us missed out.  Never good news during the growing season.

Meanwhile, NWS continues with 70% – 80% most of the time tonight through Tuesday. I’m hoping they are right, but to me the situation isn’t nearly that clear cut.  The rains of the past 36 hours had some pretty good upper dynamics, but that support has faded.  We still have lots of moisture and a fading warm front hanging around, but with upper dynamics weak I’d drop the rain chances to the 30-40% range – more scattered showers/t-storms than widespread.

I’d still love for some worthwhile rain to hit my lawn and garden.

Now, to that strange headline above.

The Land of “I”

I have a lot of concerns.  The one I’m going to discuss here is nothing new.  It has, however, reared it’s ugly head to much greater extremes and ruinous results during the current presidential regime.  It’s been revealed that our PIC (Prevaricator In Chief) has some really nasty genes.  (True, that was well known before the election, but too many Americans failed to grasp the reality.)

Our PIC has been the embodiment of, and promoter of, the “I” generation.  The “I” generation has only one concern – themselves.  Whenever PIC speaks, the words “I” and “me” are constantly being expressed.  Anybody remember hearing the word “we”?  Doesn’t ring a bell to me.  PIC’s “thing” has been this MAGA  nonsense.  That won’t work with I.  “I” has made America worse before and, especially, after PIC took over.  (A side thought…maybe Joe Biden should campaign using the slogan – Make America Great Again! )

Let’s take a look back.   World War II.  The era that produced what Tom Brokaw named the Greatest Generation.  Along with help from many nations, the United States led the battle to defeat the evil empires of Germany and Japan.  Millions of Americans joined together to produce the greatest military victory this world has ever seen.  It was a huge sacrifice – rationing, shortages, blackouts in addition to the battle casualties.  It was an effort enabled by Americans working together – WE.

After World War II, Americans continued to work together.  WE were the leaders of the world.  WE beat polio.  WE made the Russian missiles leave Cuba.  WE won the Cold War.  It’s impossible to mention all the WE moments Americans achieved.  But, somewhere along the way, WE started to fade and “I” started becoming important.

Looking back, I think things started unraveling during the Vietnam War.  WE became divided over the war.  But, when the war ended, WE never fully recovered.  Additional wars have further divided Americans.  Each time, the “I” factor grew.

But, the change hasn’t been only about war.  Front and center – the Anti-vaxxers.  What could be more simple than taking a shot to eradicate a dangerous disease from the world?  It’s obvious to WE vaccines are a good thing.  But “I” says no.  ‘I” will not vaccinate my child.  I don’t care if your kids get sick.

In this time of great uncertainty, the “I” movement has really become emboldened – and PIC has been cheering them all the way. Don’t do simple things like stay at home or wear masks – that’s your right.  Don’t care about WE who don’t want covid 19.  WE can’t peacefully demonstrate because “I” will send in the troops to clear the way for my photo at a church “I” haven’t been in since Inaugural Day.  And on and on…

“I” has been slowly growing in the U.S. for decades, but the trend has accelerated since PIC took over.  He has clearly demonstrated that “I” only weakens us.  Only WE can get America moving in the right direction again.  My hope is that WE will find something to unite around to get us moving in the right direction…before it’s too late.