6 P.M. Monday, Jan. 31, 2022

Three days ahead is a very difficult time to figure out what a storm system is going to do.  Never one to shy away from the attempt, however, here’s what the models are telling me today.

1).  Heavy rains are likely Wednesday and Thursday.  2″-3″ are possible.

2).  Another huge mass of cold air is dropping out of Canada and will be dropping only very slowly southward.  Upper upper air winds will be opposing the southward push of cold low level air.  The result will be a very shallow cold air mass reaching us during Thursday.  That is a big indicator for freezing rain and sleet, not snow.

3).  Thursday morning we’ll see rain with slowly falling temperatures during the day.  About 40 deg at morning rush hour sliding to the lower 30’s by evening rush hour.  The southern half of Indiana should be in freezing rain by morning with sleet farther north of the Ohio River.

As temperatures cool  freezing rain could move south of the Ohio during the afternoon.  Freezing rain should be of little consequence for Louisville during the day.

4).  Thursday evening,  precipitation will diminish quickly with a period of sleet/snow.  Accumulation of snow/ice should be less than one inch.

5).  A significant ice storm is likely over southern Indiana (except counties bordering the Ohio River).

6).  Snow will not be a factor locally.  However, the northern half of Indiana should expect 6″ – 12″ of snow Thursday.