Monthly Archives: August 2016

I don’t want to complain, but…

Saturday, August 13, 2016  11:45 P.M.

What a miserable week of forecasting we’ve been victimized by all week and the worst is still happening.  Thursday and Friday the forecasts, aided by the ever-willing media hype made it sound like we were due for ark-building rains.  Only one thing was wrong – the models had already backed off of the extreme rain forecast by THURSDAY.  By Friday, the models had backed off the threat of heavy rain even more.  It was obvious that heavy, flooding rains were out of the picture for today and Sunday.  So, the NWS did the “obvious” thing – issued a Flash Flood Watch for Louisville area and southern Indiana.

Today worked out just the way the models predicted – a few very light showers in the metro area with heavier rain over central Indiana.  However, the Flash Flood Watch was expanded over a larger area Sat. morning…ever though the NWS forecast had reduced the chances for rain by about 20% or so for next 48 hours!

A few showers are possible overnight, but very little, if any, rain is likely for Sunday and heavy rain Monday will stay far to our west.  But, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday.  My advice to the NWS is pretty simple:  Stop hyping a dead forecast…it died a long time ago.