Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Noon

We have a very unstable air mass over the area, so we have lots of energy available for thunderstorms. This is not too unusual for mid summer. However, what is unusual is the upper air wind fields are quite a bit stronger than normal. This combination could lead to some very strong/severe thunderstorms later this afternoon.

Keep your eyes toward the northwest and pay attention to weather updates this afternoon. This could develop into a serious situation. Time estimate for Louisville is 3 -5 P.M.

Sunday, July 21, 2024 4 P.M.

After a couple of big misses last week, the NWS is back with another strange (to me) forecast. A weak upper level pattern will change little over the Ohio Valley for the next few days. This will send a few more (today’s clouds) small upper air disturbances our way through Tuesday, at least.

As our atmosphere slowly moistens, rain chances will be increasing through Tuesday. Both the GFS and NAM models show the most likely time for rain will be Tuesday (afternoon). I agree.

The NWS forecast as of 3:50 P.M. has these rain chances: tonight 30%, tomorrow 50%, tomorrow night 50% and Tuesday 30%.

I’d suggest something like 20% tonight, 30% tomorrow and tomorrow night, then about 60-70% Tuesday.

We’ll see how it works out.

Note: very old forecast rule…The last wave on the train is always the strongest.

Tuesday, July 16, 2024 5:00 P.M.

1). Models beginning to downplay rainfall expections while National Weather Service issues Flood Watch.

2). Thunderstorms possibly forming along and/or south of the Ohio River tomorrow afternoon.

As mentioned above, forecast models have basically cut in half the previously predicted heavy overnight rain. Most models now keep total rainfall less than one inch overnight. Current timing hints at 2 A.M. to 10 A.M. as the most likely hours.

As the overnight/morning rainfall moves away, we should have several hours without rainfall. But the cold front causing this episode will lag behind the morning rain.

Then, the front, given a few hours to allow daytime heating, will develop a new line of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Starting about 2-3 P.M. the new line is expected to pop up near the Ohio River and then move rapidly southeast later in the afternoon.

Stuff

When Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860, he did not vote for himself. Reason: he wanted to remain “impartial” to let the public decide.