Friday 3 P,M.  (April 3)

I know there’s a Tornado Watch in effect, but realistically it shouldn’t include the Louisville area.  Thunderstorms, not especially strong ones, moving through the area at this time were the reason the Watch included us.  But, they certainly are not strong enough to do any “storm” damage here.  Flooding, however, is a different concern.  Additional heavy rains until about 4-4:30 could easily accentuate our local flooding problems.

The current Tornado Watch has a more realistic chance of producing severe storms over the southern half of Kentucky later this afternoon and evening. At this time, the most likely locations for severe weather appear to along the Tennessee/Kentucky border west of I-65 during the couple of hours.  By early this evening, the primary threat will be over southeastern KY (mostly east of I-75).

The current storms in Louisville area are bringing northerly winds in their wake.  That means cooler and drier air will slide in after 4 P.M.  That means “goodbye” to any severe storm threat for us.  I hope the Storm Prediction Center catches on to this and drops us from the Watch area.  Based on past experience, that won’t happen.  The horse is dead guys, you can stop beating it!

It’s now 3:20 P.M.

Heaviest part of storm cluster has now moved into Oldham, Shelby and Spencer Counties.  And, it looks weaker.  Still some renewed flooding concerns, but probably not much.  Any threat for severe storms is over for anybody within 35 miles or so of Louisville.

Stuff – total lunar eclipse late tonight.

Skies should clear tonight, so early risers tomorrow morning should get a good view of a total eclipse of the moon.  It’ll be “total” for a shorter time than usual (less than five minutes) and harder to see thanks to the morning light, but still it’s a chance to see a relatively rare event.  For full details visit:  www.spaceweather.com

Monday afternoon

Cool high pressure dominates the weather scene for now.  However, the high drifts eastward tomorrow far enough to allow southerly winds to begin a warming trend as highs return to the mid 80’s after a cool night tonight.  Hopes that late last week’s highs in the low 90’s would be our last of the year should be dashed by Wednesday as stronger southerly winds should push us to 90 or higher, but at least the humidity will be lower.  Both tomorrow and Wednesday should be generally sunny.

The next big change will begin Wednesday night as a cold front arrives.  Current thought is that the front should bring some showers and possible thunderstorms late Wed. night into Thursday morning.   The government’s “precip predictors” are forecasting this to be a significant rain-maker – 1″ or more for southern Indiana and most of KY.  My thoughts are that this system is very similar to last week’s Fri/Sat system that really fizzled out.  True, this time the cold front is stronger, but there’s just not enough moisture expected to squeeze out  a large area of 1″+ rain amounts.

The cold air mass is already pushing southward along the front range of the Rockies in Montana and will push wintry air as far south as Colorado as the week wears on.  Don’t be surprised if you hear about snows in Montana, Wyoming and possibly even as far south as Colorado this week.  As the cold air moves eastward it will thin and absorb heat from the warm soil.  So it won’t be nearly as cold when it arrives here.

Harvest Moon tonight

Last month we missed out on the chance to see the year’s biggest full moon due to clouds obscuring the view.  But this month we will get to see the most famous full moon – the Harvest Moon.  Look east right about 8 P.M. to see it rise in its full glory.  Our sky is pretty clean right now, so it will not look as colorful as the picture below, but it’ll still be great to see.

Photo:  Ruslan Merzlyakov  from Denmark.  Courtesy www.spaceweather.com

Tuesday Afternoon

It’s back!  The pleasant, mild, dry days of August.  Now there’s a statement you don’t here too often.  But, this summer has produced an abundance of them with at least two more to go in this current sequence.  Clear, cool nights should produce nighttime lows in the lower 60’s (upper 50’s rural areas) while daytime highs return to the upper 70’s tomorrow then slowly warm into the 80’s Thu/Fri.  A situation somewhat similar to the one we had this past weekend appears to be shaping up in the longer range guidance – we’ll just have to wait and see.

Super Moon among the missing.

Thanks to the clouds and showers most of the lower Ohio Valley didn’t get a chance to view this year’s “Super Moon.”  Super moon is the name given to the full moon that occurs when the Earth-Moon distance is the least of the year.  The distance between Earth and Moon varies because the Moon revolves around us in a slightly elliptical orbit.  The super moon can be as much as 14% larger and normal full moons and up to 30% brighter.  The photos below are from www.spaceweather.com.   The comparison was made by Vese Vauhkonen of Finland.

The super moon was roughly 50,000 km (about 30,000 mi) closer to Earth than the picture on the left.

Here are some others

Sunday afternoon

Pretty calm weather – much like the weekend – will continue through Wednesday with temperatures rising a few degrees.  Next chance for rain looks like Wednesday night and especially Thursday.

Comet watch

About 10 years ago the European Space Agency launched a space probe to visit a comet.  We’ve had a few fly-bys during the space age, but this one has different purposes.  Rosetta, as the probe is commonly known, is due to reach close to the Comet 67P/Churyumov/Gerasimenko  (Comet C-G  OR 67P for short) on Wednesday.  It will go into orbit around the comet and map its surface, looking for an appropriate landing space for the module Philae which has gone along for the ride.  If all goes well, a landing could take place as early as November.  So, while Rosetta studies what actually happens while a comet approaches the sun, Philae will try to find out exactly what the comet is made of.  It will be a phenomenal achievement (and knowledge advancement) if everything works as planned.  Keep your fingers crossed…the big news starts Wednesday.

Meanwhile, ESA recently issued this photo from Rosetta… Comet C-G  is shown about 1000 km from Rosetta.