Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021 6 P.M.
The upper air disturbances keep coming our way. It was nice to actually watch the snow today…seems what little snow we’ve had this winter has fallen at night.
Afternoon flurries will fade away tonight. No problems are expected in the metro area as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing.
Another upper air system will move across the region tomorrow. Louisville’s weather should be much the same as today – periods of light snow but no accumulation. The snow will be a little heavier in southern Indiana where some minor accumulations are possible.
At least we’ll get to see it snow again!
Friday, Jan. 15, 2021
Situation is developing pretty much as described in yesterday’s post…check that for more details. Meanwhile…
Tonight: periods of light snow. accumulations range from “a dusting” up to one inch by morning.
Tomorrow: a few flurries possible while Friday night’s snow melts away.
Late tomorrow night/Sunday: another round of light snow begins (especially north of the Ohio River). Little or no accumulation in Louisville area. However, 1″- 2″ possible over south central Indiana.
That possible storm around 1/24 has dropped out of the models…too warm for snow. But we will get colder air for the last week of January.
Thursday, January 14, 20216 P.M.
Lot’s of activity, but still lacking cold air
Temperatures have been mild this winter so far. The short cold spell around Christmas is about the coldest we’ve been. And, overall, the weather here has been rather quiet. But, part of that equation is about to change.
Weather patterns are really expected to pick up over the next ten days as a major upper air trough over central is expected to expand and slowly move eastward. That eastward shift opens up the opportunity to push some significant cold air south over the eastern U.S., but not until about 7-10 days from now.
Meanwhile, upper air patterns are going to start moving quickly across the country. The first one will move over the northern Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow. Some scattered light showers will be likely this evening, but they will be of little consequence since the Gulf of Mexico is shut off from this system. As colder air arrives tomorrow a few rain and/or snow showers will be possible. Best chance for snow showers will be tomorrow night with accumulations up to one inch on grassy areas. Temperatures should remain above freezing, so no major road problems are expected. Some flurries could continue Saturday.
Sunday another disturbance will float over the area. Once again Gulf moisture will be missing, so snow potential will be on the low side – probably up to a half-inch or so.
At least a couple more disturbances will hit the area next week, but there won’t be enough cold air to make snow…just cold rain.
It’s a long way off, but a storm expected next weekend should be quite strong and offer a rain-changing-to-snow situation. It might be strong enough to push us into a “colder than normal” weather pattern.
Monday, January 11, 2021 6 P.M.
It’s happened again!
Yesterday’s post was about a little “pet peeve” about the National Weather Service’s failure to update forecasts when they go bad. For details, read yesterday’s comments. Well, it really surprised me to see the same situation again today. Only this time, the forecast also hit upon another one of may pet peeves.
Today’s forecast called for mostly cloudy skies this morning with skies becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. A late morning look at the situation showed that clearing, if any, would be very slow this afternoon. So a forecast update then should have been a downgrade to at least “mostly cloudy” or , even better, “cloudy.” But, since midday updates aren’t required anymore, nothing happened.
My second pet peeve of the day is this…many times the morning forecast contains messaging for “this morning” and “this afternoon” rather than “today.” That’s good. After all, weather does change. To me, it seems like a sensible idea that around Noon the forecast should be reissued removing the “this morning” wording. Makes sense to me. But, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gone to the NWS forecast during the afternoon and the first phrase of the forecast contains the words “this morning.” It’s just common sense.
One of my favorite quotes…Common sense isn’t.
Sunday, January 10, 2021 12:30 P.M.
One of things I miss from the old days is the updated forecasts issued by the NWS around 11:30 A.M. and P.M. Forecasts were not as accurate in those days, so the updates to the “prime” morning and evening forecasts were sometimes needed.
Somewhere along the line it was decided that the morning and evening forecasts were all that was needed. Updates became hard to find. Today’s forecast is a perfect example why that may not be such a good thing.
When I got up this morning, my radio told me “sunny skies today with a high near 40.” But it wasn’t sunny, so I went to the NWS site to see what they were saying. There I found a forecast for Jefferson County of “partly cloudy with a high in the upper 30’s.” Ok, that was still in play. Later, however, taking a little closer look at the actual weather data and satellite imagery, I noticed that the models predicted the sunnier part of the day to be during the morning with clouds increasing again during the afternoon. A quick look at satellite views shows increasing clouds advancing eastward from western KY.
So, now the morning forecast no longer seems to be “in play.” In the old days, the 11:30 A.M. update would (should?) have put the forecast back on track. But, at last glance, the incorrect forecast still stands. Surely someone at the NWS would want to correct it (and drop the “high” to the mid 30’s).
The music for the song, Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star, is the same tune that is used in the ABC song we use to teach children the A, B, C’s.
The composer of that music was Mozart!