Sunday afternoon

Strong storm system heading up the Mississippi River will have some big affects for us tonight and tomorrow.  Highlights: (1) Heavy rain this evening should be strongest between 6P.M. and 10 P.M.  Rain should fade quickly after midnight.  (2) Very strong  winds late tonight and all day tomorrow.  Winds will be picking up after midnight and increase to 20-25 mph (steady winds) with gusts 35-40 mph through tomorrow with slow weakening Tuesday.  (3) Colder temperatures move in again.  We’ll stay in the 50’s tonight then fall during the day tomorrow into the 40’s and near 30 by Tuesday morning.

Thanksgiving Outlook

A weak Alberta Clipper will move across the area Wednesday with a good chance for some light rain and/or snow showers.  Colder air follows the Clipper and makes a windy cold Thanksgiving Day – temperatures in the 30’s with some flurries possible.

Friday afternoon

Quite a difference a week can make.  Last week we were looking at a cold weekend ending with snow.  Basically, the same weather patterns exist this Friday with one important exception – the air is much warmer.  So this time we talk rain, not snow.  A weak upper air disturbance will reach us late tonight into tomorrow morning.  The NAM basically ignores any rain potential with this system while the GFS has increased its forecast for rain, but it’s still only about 30%.  Best bet is still no rain, but if any does fall, it’ll be very light (less than .05″).  Rising temperatures tomorrow should push us to 50 or so.  The stronger storm will be late Sunday (both models have slowed this again).  So Sunday should be a warm, windy day with highs near 60.  Lots of clouds, but little rain threat until late afternoon with the heaviest rain likely Sunday night.

Once again, we’ll see colder air arrive Monday, but it looks like next week’s coldest air will arrive for Thanksgiving Day.  Periods of snow flurries/snow showers look like a good bet Wednesday night and Thanksgiving.

Tuesday Evening

The old wisdom comes through again!  One of oldest forecasting “rules” I remember from college states “Never forecast a weather record.”  Good advice, but ignored by most (maybe all) local forecasters yesterday.  Our morning low was 16, three degrees above the record while some were forecasting as low as 10.

Meanwhile, looking ahead our weather looks like a warming trend (although still below normal) through Friday.  High temperatures should have a hard time getting out of the 30’s and we’ll see a small chance  for flurries tomorrow night.  The cold northerly flow will relax by the weekend, however, as a weak disturbance from the southwest will provide a chance for some light rain Saturday.  A second, stronger, system moves into the area Sunday with rain likely and even a thunderstorm possible.  Colder weather should return Monday.

Monday Evening

Pretty pictures from nature today as that wet, clinging snow held on tree limbs most of the day.  Forecast worked out pretty well although I would have liked to see the snowfall pattern drop about 20 miles south.  But nature does what it wants, not bothering with us humans and our models.  The official total from the airport came in at 2.9″.  I live about 15 miles northeast of the airport and measured 4.2″ on the ground.  So, a pretty wide variation over a short north/south distance.  Most of southern Indiana and Kentucky (north of I-64) finished in the 3″ to 5″ range while southern Jefferson Co. into Bullitt Co. were more like 1″-3″.

Now, it’s on to the cold.  Tomorrow’s record low is 13 degrees (1959).  With snow on the ground and expected clearing skies tonight, most forecasters are predicting a new record.  The only thing that could get in the way would be the clouds.  Flurries should hold for the next few hours, but it looks as though skies should clear for a least a few hours overnight.  That should be enough to get us to the new record.  But, if the clouds hold, it won’t happen.

Saturday update

Both models are coming into better agreement over tomorrow night’s weather event.  Both agree that there’s going to be significant precipitation (.25-.50″).  The NAM still favors more rain than snow while the GFS remains colder favoring mostly snow.  If the NAM is correct it’ll be a disappointing wet snow of around an inch.  The GFS favors about 3″ to 5″ inches of snow.  The most recent afternoon run of the NAM is slightly cooler than it was this morning.  My current thinking still leans (somewhat strongly) toward the GFS, but the possibility of a longer stay with the warmer air is beginning to worry me.  We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow!