Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019 4: 30 P.M.
Newest Euro: Keeps Dorian several hundred miles east of Florida (only small problems for the coast. Then, it gets stays off the Carolina coasts and stays east of Cape Hatteras. (more good news)
Newest GFS: stays away from the Florida coast, but probably makes landfall along the North Caroiina coast.
Sat. Aug. 31, 2019 3:30 P.M.
Much better news for Florida!
Over my 50+ years of trying to into harmony with nature, I repeated countless times, “Don’t trust any forecast beyond two days.” We still miss forecasts in days 1 and 2, but that forecast is usually pretty accurate. But when you get beyond 2 days, things change.
Hurricane Dorian forecasts this week have been a prime example. Early this week Dorian was projected to hit somewhere along the Florida east coast. Where? We have many different models looking at the storm (you’ve probably seen the “Spaghetti Diagrams” on tv), but the U.S. showcase is the GFS and the top model in the world is referred as the EURO. Let’s just track those two.
Early in the week, the GFS landfall was predicted to be along the FL/GA border. The euro focused on southern FL. Over the next day or two, the GFS gradually worked its landfall southward to close to the euro position. Yesterday, the GFS still predicted a hit north of Miami then at least a two day journey northward over Florida. That matches the horrific damage projection I mentioned Thursday.
But, yesterday’s morning euro changed! It no longer predicted Dorian to hit Florida. Instead, it would get within a 100 miles or so, then turn slowly northward along the coast and probably not hit land until about North Carolina. That’s VERY important! As far a potential damage goes, there’s a huge difference between a hit and a near miss. Meanwhile, the GFS maintained it’s devastating forecast.
This morning, the GFS caught up to the euro with the “close miss” scenario, but was still putting landfall along the area along the North/South Carolina border. Today’s euro, however, has shifted the storm track farther east, possibly even missing the Outer Banks.
So, what’s going to happen?
Good question. We’re still more than two days away from U.S. coastal interaction and “trends” sometimes do reverse. So, no one from Florida to North Carolina is completely out of danger yet. But, current trends are indicating a much better situation, especially for Florida. As it stands now, Florida’s biggest threat will come from beach erosion. But remember, things change!
GFS vs. euro
Remember earlier this summer when the National Weather Service made a big fuss over it’s introduction of its “new and better” GFS version? The model was designed to oust the euro as world’s best. Dorian has been the first big test for the new GFS. So far, so bad. But, things change. Let’s see how it plays out.
Stuff
The director of the Internal Revenue Service during the mid 1940’s later went to jail for failing to pay his income taxes.
Thursday, August 29, 2019 6 P.M.
Models diverge from National Hurricane Center
First Dorian was forecast to make landfall along the Florida east coast late Saturday. Then early Sunday. Latest forecast is for about Midnight Monday morning. The later it gets, the more problems it’ll create.
Latest GFS products and several other models slow it even more – with one model actually holding off landfall until Tuesday! The delay will allow the storm to sit off the coast (probably SE Florida) for 2-3 days. That could create almost unbelievable shore erosion along the east coast of the northern two-thirds of the east coast of Florida as well as parts of Georgia’s coast.
Hurricane Center is projecting max winds around 130 mph at landfall. That may be a tad on the high side, but the extremely slow motion of the storm combined with the expected winds could wipe out many beaches due to the prolonged storm surge.
Hopefully, things will change over the next few days, but, if not, prepare for the worst for the northern 2/3 of Florida’s east coast. If you have interests along the Gulf (west) Coast of Florida, no big deal. Few, if any, problems there.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but right now it’s not looking good.
Thursday, August, 8, 2019
We’ve had some crazy pretty forecasts this summer, especially before our weather turned dry over the past six weeks. Meanwhile, the recent dry weather has us hoping for some needed rainfall. And, the National Weather Service has given us some hope for tomorrow and tomorrow night. I just have no idea where their forecast came from!
They’ve got a 50% chance for both time periods. The models I’ve seen have dropped rain chances to less than 10%. So, what’s up? I have no idea. I don’t see any rain tomorrow or tomorrow night. But, I’d sure like to get a good, soaking rain. I just don’t see it happening soon.
Remember back in May and early June how 50% forecasts brought us many heavy rain episodes? Seems to me the forecast probabilities were too low then, and too high now.