Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025 1:30 P.M.

Blanket of 2″-4″ of snow likely by morning!

The Alberta Clipper mentioned last night is still on target for a solid hit on us tonight. Latest estimates expect snow to begin by 8 P.M. with most accumulations likely between 9 P.M. and 1 A.M. Then slowing snow fall late tonight. With the models all converging on the same solution – basically what the GFS was hinting at last night, a slight bump upward in snow totals is warrented.

This, as most Clippers, will be a rather narrow line of accumulation. The axis of 2-4″ snow should be about 50-75 miles wide centered on a path from NW to SE across southern IN – through Louisville – to south of Lexington. As you head S and W of Louisville there will be a rapid drop off of accumulations. On the northern side of the path, snow accumulations will drop slowly.

This system is not bringing much cold air along with it, so a good bit of melting will occur tomorrow and Saturday. Major roadways have been brined so not many problems expected there. However, smaller roads should be snow-covered by morning.

NEXT: The long advertized bitterly cold air arrives Saturday night. It should bring another patch of snow (likely less than tonight). But the big thing will be the cold/wind. Single digit temperatures likely Sunday and Monday.

LATER: The longer term picture is showing a major reversal in weather patterns over the U.S. beginning around Christmas (Saturnalia, if you wish). Cold weather returns to the western regions while major warming sets in over the eastern half of the country. It appears that severe thunderstorms around Christmas will be more likely than snowy roads!

STUFF: Things just keep running through my head…

1st U.S. President: “I cannot tell a lie.”

Last U.S. President/1st Autocrat: “I cannot tell the truth.”

MARA – Make America a Republic Again

Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 11 P.M.

A weak Alberta Clipper will move quickly tomorrow from Montana and the Dakotas SE into our area by tomorrow night. Models put the system on a perfect path to bring light snow into southern IN and northern KY starting tomorrow evening. System has little energy, but should produce a fairly wide area of 1″-3″ of snow.

GFS model puts axis of the snow right over the Louisville area, but NAM models push the axis about 40-50 miles NE of Louisville. Usually, the GFS is a little better on snow forecasts. Some “fine-tuning” is likely tomorrow.

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025 6:30 P.M.

It’s been fun today to watch how two different systems were going merge and what that means for us.

First, a dying storm has been producing mostly 2″-4″+ snows over Missouri and southern Illinois. That system will produce 2-4″ snows over southern IN tonight – starting about 30 miles (or so) north of the Ohio River.

That energy is now shifting southward to hook up with a new storm coming northeast from Texas. That will combine to create a large snow/rain system spreading NE overnight. Snow will break out around midnight and move rapidly NE. It’ll leave 2-4″ of snow over southern KY into West Virginia overnight. Once again heaviest snow area will begin about 30 miles (or so) south of the river.

Models strongly support a weak “dry” slot moving along the river. The result: Louisville area likely to see 1″ to 2″ of snow. Probably closer to the 1″. Accumulations mostly on grassy areas – don’t expect too much on roads.

Inside the Watterson, accumulations should be less than 1″. Heaviest snow time – 2-5 A.M.

Recent Changes

Sunday, November 30, 2025 6 P.M.

For many months, the U.S. long range forecast models have followed the usual trends for a “La Nina” winter. We are currently in weak La Nina conditions and are expected to slowly rise into the neutral range early next year. La Nina status is when sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific are below normal…as they are now.

A La Nina winter pattern usually starts as most of Canada with colder than normal temperatures while the U.S. has above normal warmth. The major storm track tends to run along the warm/cold boundary. Then, in January, the cold Canadian air drops slowly southward into the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. At the same time the primary storm track also drops south. By February, the colder than normal air masses and storm track drop even more southward. So the result is often called a” Late” Winter with most of the stormiest conditions during the latter half of the season,

Not this year! Starting early in November, the longer range models abruptly changed. Basically, the December forecast changed from warm to cold. That colder-than-normal outlook has locked in for December. The cold pattern warms a bit by January and back to neutral-to-warm temperatures by Febraury.

That’s a complete reversal of the La Nina cycle.

My personal thoughts generally agree with the new data. Look forward to a cold December with numerous chances for snow and rain. Then temperatures ease (compared to normal) in January but still pretty high levels of snow chances. More temperature easing in Feb.

Monday, November 10, 2025 Noon

Snow showers are currently moving through western and southern Jefferson County. These may leave a temporary minor accumulation on grassy areas, but will move quickly southeast away from us. Elsewhere in the Metro, nothing but flurries until mid-afternoon. No road problems expected.

Stuff:

Keep the NO KINGS movement going! Let’s shoot for ten million next time.

Thursday, May 15, 2025 6 PM

Atmosphere is setting up for a big day of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night. Forecasts point to a major outbreak starting tomorrow midday over Arkansas, MO, IL with all severe categories moderate to high.  That outbreak will consolidate into one (or more) squall lines as it moves toward IN/KY tomorrow evening – roughly 8 PM to Midnight.That’s not the only problem – atmosphere also favors individual “discrete supercells” ahead of the cold front over western IN/KY tomorrow afternoon.  If these develop, they can be very damaging.  Supercells in the warm, humid air mass ahead of a cold front can be very dangerous.Meanwhile, as the warm air mass works its way northward tonight, we could see some non-severe thunderstorms this evening and again toward morning.

5:45 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues with greatest threat headed over South Central Indiana – at least 30+ miles north of the Ohio River.

Farther south, 30 miles north and south of the River, the expected intensity increase has failed to fire. Line of storms headed toward Metro Louisville should remain mostly (if not entirely) below “severe” limits. They should produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM.