Friday, Jan.23, 2026 5 P.M.

Forecast models are very little changed over past 24 hours, so it’s time to just sit back and see what happens. The consensus model still has us smack in the middle of the 12″-15″ range starting tomorrow and ending Monday morning. So, I’ll stick with that until proven wrong (or right).

Matt Jones’s TV weathercasters contest seemingly has aroused quite an interest around the state. It’ll be interesting to see the results. I’ve noticed quite a wide range with the forecasts. As always with the weather…we’ll see.

The best thing about the contest, beside bragging rights, is that some charity or charities will get a big bonus from the contest. I’m not eligible for the contest, but I can still throw in my two cents. My prediction is 14.5″ at SDF and 16.8 at LEX. That’s snowfall. My “accumulation” forecast is 13″ at SDF while LEX gets 15″.

Stuff:

The proverb, “None is so blind as one who will not see.” The Bible has an Old Testimate mention about this idea, but it came into English language usage in 1546 in a book by John Haywood. I am truly amazed that a large number of my fellow Americans still can’t overcome their “blindness”. We’ve suffered through a year now of a reincarnation of Hitler’s Storm Troopers/Brown Shirts. Lawless harassment of citizens and aliens including harsh physical treatment, separation of families, even MURDER happens under this regime of terror. Even the illegal perpetrators know what they are doing is wrong…why else would they wear masks? Then, there other things. How about ending SNAP, reducing Medicade, greatly reducing medical and scientific research, siccing JFK JR on us, invading/bombing foreign countries, and on and on. That’s horrible, but I haven’t mentioned LYING. Just continuous lying, lying, lying…Our Authoritarian leader opens his mouth, IT’s a LIE. Always! I can’t imagine anyone lying more, unless it’s his Press Secretary.

That’s just a small sample of what we’ve experienced during this lawless administration. Did I mention the constant lying? While this has been going on we’ve become the laughing stock of the world. Putin loves what’s happening. So does China. And the list goes on and on…bad idea after bad idea.

And yet roughly one-third of the American public sees no harm in our national disintegration. It is time to wake up and see the real world (not the FOX Entertainment one) and lose your “blindness.” It’s especially true for members of Congress. Remember, your Government is constantly lying to you! Oh, and whatever happened to the Epstein Files?

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026 5:30 P.M.

The evolution of this storm since Sunday has been fun to watch. Then, a small “cut-off” upper air disturbance was projected to drop into the far SW corner of California, Arizona, and northern Mexico. From there, it was projected on an ENE path to bring snow/ice to the southern states and off the east coast. We were projected to have no snow here and no snow north of Virginia along the east coast.

Then, AS ALWAYS, the daily small changes started adding up to a major change four days later. What happened?

+First, the weak cut-off over the southwest dropped several hundred miles farther south than expected. That put it over the Pacific Ocean where it attracted a large amount of moisture. This was not a part of original expectations. That led to a more “energetic” system.

Second, the cut-off’s unexpected southern divergence led to a series of changes downstream. The Storm turned to a more NE path which has allowed Gulf of Mexican moisture to flow farther north. Each day the predicted northern edge of the snow/ice has drifted northward. Sunday, it was southern KY; today it’s moved to the Great Lakes!

So, as we stand now, the axis of the predicted maximum snowfall lies right along the Ohio Valley! So, how much snow?

First, a little history. Back in the 60’s and 70’s we forecasters had a common expression when there was a “difficult” forecast looming – “Take five forecasters, isolate them, and give them copies of all the charts. The results – five different forecasts. Computer forecast models were in their infancy then, but have since improved forecasting immensely.

So, back to today. Now we have forecast models that are very good, but not perfect. Now we can take ten (or more) models, combine all the model data into one single composite. The idea is to get all the variations smoothed out to make a forecast as good as you can get. The results are very, very good, but still not perfect.

So, how much snow? The latest composite forecast for Louisville area is for an accumulation of 12″ – 15″. Lexington about 1-3″ more than Louisville. It’ll begin around midday Saturday, then heavier snow Saturday night, then tapering slowly Sunday afternoon. Winds will become strong Sunday with lots of drifting snow.

NOTE: I’ve tried to point out how some seemingly insignificant events can influence events in the future. We’re still two days away…THINGS CHANGE!

Wednesday, Jan.21, 2026 6P.M.

The season’s coldest air mass, so far, will drop over most of the eastern half of the Autocracy of the U.S. in time for the weekend. A cold air mass of this intensity tends to cause any large storm systems to head southward to move around the cold air. Not this time.

About a week ago, computer forecast models started predicting a small pack of energy to “cut off” from the main upper air flow. At that time, the models projected the cut-off to drift into southern California/Arizonia, then head ENE over the southern U.S. This rather weak system would drift over the southern states and create a large area of some snow, but, mostly a major ice storm from northern Texas to North Carolina and out to sea.

By Monday, there was a large difference in models. The GFS, the prime US model, followed the scenario described above. But other models were predicting the eventual path of the cut-off to be hundreds of miles farther north.

And that’s the way it’s going to turn out. That change will create a much larger area of snow centered over northern Tennessee and Kentucky. The sleet/freezing rain storm remains south of the snow.

It’s still too early to determine the exact path of the storm and the amounts of snow and ice. But, for now, the GFS predicts 6″ – 8″ for the Louisville area while the consensus model goes 8″-12″.

It’s going to be very cold during the snowstorm, so we’ll have a very dry, fluffy snow and it’ll be hard to measure due to a lot of drifting.

Friday, January 16, 2025 4 P.M.

A cold front will be crossing the area over the next 6 hours or so. Not much moisture is available, but the upper level wide fields are favorable for enough lifting to squeeze out some precipitation between now and Midnight. Temperatures aloft are quite cold so snow will be the expected form of precipitation.

However, surface temperatures reached the 40’s this afternoon. Thus, I expect to see a rain/snow mix at onset. That will cause temperatures to drop quickly and we should see snow become the dominate precipitation form by 6-7 P.M. Through the evening, temperatures are expected to remain in the 30’s. That’s good news for area roadways as they should remain wet, not icy. Some snow accumulation, however, is likely on grassy areas. Snow totals locally should be up to one inch on those off-road surfaces. East of Louisville area, snow accumulations (grassy areas) could hit 1-2″ (Shelbyville) and possibly 3″ near Frankfort and Lexington.

Stuff

Isn’t it ironic that the person who commonly calls Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe” is now falling asleep in public almost every day?

Saturday, Dec. 13, 2025 4PM

Unusually cold air slides in tonight with single-digit temperatures likely tomorrow and Monday mornings. Winds are expected to remain about 10 MPH (plus or minus 5), so wind chills should drop below zero, but nothing extreme. Strong warming will begin Monday.

As the colder air arrives this evening, some light snow will be possible for a few hours. Yesterday, forecast models indicated little or no snow accumulation. That would be typical for this type of system. By this morning, however, the models “found” a little more moisture and the National Weather Service now says about 2″ of snow for Louisville!

But, the most recent short-term forecast models are back to little to no snow this evening. That goes back to the usual expectations.

Whatever the amount of snowfall, it’ll be here roughly between 7 and 11 P.M. I’ll stick with the “little to no” accumulation for the Louisville area. However, slightly higher amounts will be likely east of here – perhaps up to an inch along the I-75 corridor.

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025 1:30 P.M.

Blanket of 2″-4″ of snow likely by morning!

The Alberta Clipper mentioned last night is still on target for a solid hit on us tonight. Latest estimates expect snow to begin by 8 P.M. with most accumulations likely between 9 P.M. and 1 A.M. Then slowing snow fall late tonight. With the models all converging on the same solution – basically what the GFS was hinting at last night, a slight bump upward in snow totals is warrented.

This, as most Clippers, will be a rather narrow line of accumulation. The axis of 2-4″ snow should be about 50-75 miles wide centered on a path from NW to SE across southern IN – through Louisville – to south of Lexington. As you head S and W of Louisville there will be a rapid drop off of accumulations. On the northern side of the path, snow accumulations will drop slowly.

This system is not bringing much cold air along with it, so a good bit of melting will occur tomorrow and Saturday. Major roadways have been brined so not many problems expected there. However, smaller roads should be snow-covered by morning.

NEXT: The long advertized bitterly cold air arrives Saturday night. It should bring another patch of snow (likely less than tonight). But the big thing will be the cold/wind. Single digit temperatures likely Sunday and Monday.

LATER: The longer term picture is showing a major reversal in weather patterns over the U.S. beginning around Christmas (Saturnalia, if you wish). Cold weather returns to the western regions while major warming sets in over the eastern half of the country. It appears that severe thunderstorms around Christmas will be more likely than snowy roads!

STUFF: Things just keep running through my head…

1st U.S. President: “I cannot tell a lie.”

Last U.S. President/1st Autocrat: “I cannot tell the truth.”

MARA – Make America a Republic Again

Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 11 P.M.

A weak Alberta Clipper will move quickly tomorrow from Montana and the Dakotas SE into our area by tomorrow night. Models put the system on a perfect path to bring light snow into southern IN and northern KY starting tomorrow evening. System has little energy, but should produce a fairly wide area of 1″-3″ of snow.

GFS model puts axis of the snow right over the Louisville area, but NAM models push the axis about 40-50 miles NE of Louisville. Usually, the GFS is a little better on snow forecasts. Some “fine-tuning” is likely tomorrow.