Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co. Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50. Strong, gusty winds possible. Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Today is another situation where we have a very fine line between strong thunderstorms and a marginally “severe” storm or two. Nothing really to worry about as the situation just can’t quite get its act together.
Large trough dropping into the midwest will slowly push eastward tonight and tomorrow. A strong short wave disturbance is rotating around this trough and aiming for the south. The northern halves of AL and MS as well as western TN should see a significant severe storm outbreak this evening and tonight.
Meanwhile, a much weaker short wave is moving over western KY right now and is generating a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it moves toward us. Look for this rain to reach Louisville about 4 P.M. and depart before 7 P.M. Some of the embedded thunderstorms could be strong but should not reach into the “severe” range. (Although with the trend of recent years for the NWS declaring almost any strong thunderstorm “severe”, I would not be surprised if a warning or two is issued.) Keep in mind that a 58 mph wind (the lower limit of severe storms) will do a lot of damage. Compared to a 50 mph wind gust (which doesn’t do a lot of damage, a 58 mph wind gust has about 35% MORE FORCE!
Later tonight, a cold front will cross IN into KY. This front should become very active in the next few hours. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this front, especially over western and south central Indiana from about 6 P.M. to 9 P.M. EDT. The southern end of this area will reach the Louisville between 9 P.M. until midnight. No severe weather weather is expected with this line. In fact, there’s a reasonable chance it’ll die out before reaching us.
Easter Sunday, 8 P.M.
Severe storm WATCH for the area – looks like the forecasters at SPC were a little bored and tried to get a little excitement in today’s weather.
But the models are showing any instability to grind down to near zero by 9 P.M. AND since the major line of showers/t-storms won’t arrive in Louisville area until after 9 P.M., any threat for severe thunderstorms is close to zero. Just a few hours of nice rain to help bring us our April showers.
Happy Easter.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Quite rainy day…most of Jefferson County seems to be nearing (or over) the one inch mark now (5:45 P.M.) with more due until about Midnight. After that, weak cool front drops across the area and pushes the rain eastward for tomorrow. But the upper air system looks like it’ll reload tomorrow and return the on-and-off showers for Saturday through Monday.
Next week figures to remain mild, but it should’t be nearly as wet.
El Nino
The current El Nino is beginning to wind down, but should not drop to “normal” status until this summer. But, historically, a strong El Nino brings a La Nina in its wake. So, beginning later this year, our Earth is likely to see below normal temperatures setting in and lasting for a year or two. According to satellite data, February was Earth’s warmest month (during the satellite era). The previous record was set during another strong El Nino year – 1998.
El Nino precipitation
El Nino weather patterns are known to bring above normal precipitation totals to the southwestern U.S. Drought-stricken California was greatly anticipating plenty of rain and snow this winter. Until last weekend the winter rainy season hadn’t lived up to expectations. Now, after last weekend’s heavy rains put a lot of water into the state’s reservoirs, there is hope that many of the recent water restrictions may be eased this year.
Even better news is that at least two more significant storms appear headed toward the Golden State over the next week to 10 days. If they both make it, California’s water situation will look better than it has for many years!
Comic relief
Saw a headline recently, “Researchers now say that man’s influence on climate may date back to the 1930’s. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$…yes, that’s your hard-earned money (tax dollars) being wasted on insanity. The headline gave me a good laugh, but in the larger picture, it should have made me cry. It’s sad, really, about all the money being wasted over the “climate change” agenda.
The “problem”, if you want to call it that, is nothing new. Ever since humans learned to cultivate crops and to live in communities, we have been inadvertently altering our climate. As our population has grown to over seven billion, the change we bring to our Earth has been expanding. Carbon dioxide is just a drop in the bucket compared to the overall picture. As climate has changed in the past, humans have acclimated, or adapted, to the new circumstances. In spite of the “stories” we’re being told by many so-called leaders, Earth’s climate is NOT broken, so it can’t be FIXED. It just changes, and so must we.