Friday, Sept. 16, 2016
Although yesterday’s forecasts for tomorrow’s big game with FSU were generally upbeat…rain before and after the game, but not during…current forecasts show no such thing. It now looks as though rain gear will be the best fashion statement during the game.
Both the NAM and GFS are still looking toward late night rains, but they are now showing an even higher chance for rain (and possible thunder) during most, maybe all, of the game. I remember a big win over FSU during a heavy rain about 10-15 years ago, so maybe the now-likely rain is a good omen.
Contrary to the NAM/GFS, the very short term models are now downplaying the overnight rain expectations. I hope that is wrong as we could certainly use a good, soaking rain. However, the short term models have been outperforming the NAM/GFS all summer (by a big margin) , so wouldn’t be surprised if the predicted rains tonight are a no show.
Friday Sept. 9, 2016 4 P.M.
Back in August I wrote about an unusually bad string of forecasts the Louisville area has been subjected to this summer. That week was the worst forecast performance (for a prolonged period) that I can remember. Individual forecasts, yes, but not such a long string of them. Well, it has started again.
We did have some isolated showers overnight and a good soaking rain south of Louisville this morning, so far three straight “high probability” showers and thunderstorm forecasts have come up largely dry for Louisville area. That includes the current time forecasts for Thursday, Thursday night and today. And, the current forecast for tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow looks to be just as bad (or worse.)
Without getting into specific details, let’s just say that if the most recent models are anywhere near correct, the current “official” forecast isn’t going to be.
Tonight, we’ll see a dying line of rain/storms approach us after midnight. Like last night they don’t look like they’ll bring any widespread rains.
Tomorrow’s forecast for numerous showers and thunderstorms (60% chance) actually boils down to the possibility of a line of thunderstorms forming over us in the early afternoon… an hour of rain at most. Both the NAM and GFS are tending have the formation either over us or to our east, so it would no be too surprising of they missed us entirely. The NAM (and me) are leaning that way.
Then, the 50% chance for showers/thunderstorms tomorrow night is just plain “Crazy Talk.”