Friday afternoon (Mar 6)
After a beautiful snow forecast, the NWS fell back into it’s recent trend of big-time errors on low temperatures. Early yesterday, it was all about the record lows we’d be having. Didn’t happen. Didn’t even come close. But, in fact, a record MAY have been set!
First, yesterday’s high, predicted to be 17, reached the mid 20’s. But the crowning event was to be the low this morning. (see yesterday’s blog) Yesterday’s overnight forecast, issued at 3:41 P.M. predicted a low temperature of -5 to -10 degrees. This morning’s low was 8 deg. ( In forecasting, an error of +/- 3 degrees is considered a “hit”.) So, the official forecast had an error range from 13 degrees to 18 degrees! In today’s world, a miss of 10 deg. or more probably only happens a handfull of times a year. But, a miss of 18 deg. is virtually unprecedented. So, indeed, a new record may have been set this morning – worst low-temperature forecast ever. However, I don’t imagine that such records are kept, so we’ll never know.
Southerly winds and partly cloudy skies will contribute to dry, warming weather. That’s good news for most of us, but not for those who live in flood-prone areas. Highs in 40’s may sound good, but that’s still below normal for early March. Next week we’ll have some days in the 50’s and some reach the 60’s.
Tonight…partly cloudy and cold…low near 20 this evening, then slowly rising temperatures overnight.
Tomorrow and Sunday: partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.
Hey, Tom. Something that was common knowledge around my house growing up is that Louisville weather is particularly difficult to predict. Is this true? If so, do we know why?