Thursday, May 31, 2018 5:45 P.M.
Development to our west is still slow. Primary development, as expected, will stay south (where the energy is) with heaviest storms over western TN. A weaker bit of energy may still work its way up the Ohio River tonight, but that looks like it’ll be later than I originally thought…probably arriving around 11 P.M. to Midnight. No problems with this system, if it arrives.
Comment: This has been a really bad month for Louisville area forecasters. It’s only fitting that the current NWS forecast seems destined to join the faulty list. My guess is they haven’t taken into account the changes caused by this afternoon’s storm system.
Thursday, May 31, 2018 5 P.M.
Severe wind gusts ripped across the area this afternoon as winds gusted as high as 59 mph at Standiford Field. Many reports of 50+ mph came in from around the state. That cluster of strong storms is continuing to create trouble over southeastern KY.
Meanwhile, to our west what was expected to be the “big event” tonight is having a tough time organizing. No surprise there. This afternoon’s big cluster of storms has used a huge amount of the potential energy expected to fuel tonight’s storms. So, no “big event” is likely tonight. A line/cluster of thunderstorms could develop into our area around 9 P.M. until Midnight. But they won’t be very strong, even if they do reach us. No additional severe weather is expected tonight It appears that tonight’s outbreak may stay south of KY. Lots more energy available over TN.
Thursday, May 31, 2018 Noon
After a largve production of heavy/severe thunderstorms in the central plains overnight, two distinct developments today as that energy moves east.
1). A pulse of upper energy is moving rapidly eastward and is creating a developing strong cluster of storms over southern Illinois. This system is expected to expand eastward across southern Indiana and extreme northern Kentucky over the next few hours. Some severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. Primary threat will be brief, strong gusty winds. Smaller threat will be hail. If everything develops as expected, the cluster of storms will move through the Louisville area from about 2 P.M. to 3:30 P.M.
2). The “main event” from the midwestern system is expected to develop later this afternoon and reach our area tonight. Best time for us looks like 8 P.M. until Midnight. Again, strong, gusty winds will be primary threat. This time, however, the storms are expected to be more widespread.
NOTE: How this afternoon’s storms play out could have a significant say in how tonight’s system develops. I’ll have an update on that later.
3:30 P.M. 5/26/2018
Rain/thundershowers over southern IN have remained weak and are not showing any indication of dropping into KY. So, there will still be a slight chance for a shower later today or tonight, but most, if not all, of the Louisville area will stay dry through the weekend. But, it’ll be hot! Have fun!
Sat. May 26, 2018 12:30 P.M.
Up to an hour of rain and possible thunder late this afternoon appears to be the only weather disruption we’ll see this long weekend. Memorial Day weekend is often referred to as the “unofficial beginning of summer.” This year, however, it’ll be more like the middle of summer, especially tomorrow and Monday.
This afternoon, I expect a narrow line of showers/thunder to form over southern Indiana by around 2 P.M. They will drift slowly southeastward through the Louisville metro between about 4 P.M. and 5:30 P.M. It should not be a solid line, so not everyone will see rain. Even those who receive rain won’t get much, probably less than a quarter inch.
The rest of the weekend will be hot, humid and dry. Only a scant chance for a thunderstorm tomorrow and Monday. Highs both days will be near 90 degrees. (heat index: low 90’s)