Category Archives: commentary

Dorian footnotes

5 P.M. Friday, Sept. 6,2019

Some laughs in a serious situation

Looking back on some things said this week, it appears the U.S. coastline got off pretty easily.  We had plenty of damage, but nothing that could compare anywhere close to the damage sustained by our Bahamian neighbors just 100 or so miles east of Florida.

Meanwhile, I just couldn’t resist laughing at our Prevaricator-in-Chief.  Some really funny sound bites – actually, though, crying should have been my reaction instead of laughter.  But, when the Prevaricator speaks about science, funny things roll out of his mouth.  He’s the classic example of speaking first, thinking later.

1).  Alabama.  He postpones (or cancels) a trip to Poland because of the potential hurricane damage to Alabama.  No National Hurricane Center bulletins on Dorian ever mentioned Alabama.  There was never a potential threat to ‘Bama.  (Of course, now he’ll probably ask the citizens of Alabama to vote for him because he kept the storm away from them.  Prevaricator-in- Chief indeed,)

2). Cat 5.   Numerous quotes earlier this week about…Category 5, nothing like this has ever happened before.  Who can believe this?  Amazing, Category 5’s just don’t happen.  And on and on.  Trouble is, he used the same words over and over and over in 2017 when another Category 5 storm approached the U.S.  Are we talking about memory loss or slow learner or both.

3).  Nuke it.  Hurricanes should be no problem, says the PIC.  We can just nuke ’em.  In any other reality, that just makes matters worse.  Instead of a hurricane hitting the coast, we’d have a radioactive hurricane hitting the coast.  We’d need a far different system to clean up from that hurricane.  Why won’t nuking a hurricane work.? The amount of energy nature works with dwarfs what we humans can do.  The NHC estimates that a typical average hurricane releases an amount of energy equal to about 10,000 average nuclear bombs.  Over an typical 7 day lifetime, that amounts to about one bomb per MINUTE.

Basically, the PIC should keep away from talking about science.

P.S.  I’ve just had an even scarier thought.  What if his science advisers told him to say those things???

Dorian has stopped, for now

Sunday, Sept. 2, 2019  5 P.M.

Northern Bahamas still getting blasted

Dorian has weakened a bit today, down to a Cat 4, but is still very potent.  The weakening trend should continue for awhile due to interaction with land.  More importantly, weakening may be even greater than expected because the storm has essentially stopped.  To simplify things, hurricanes grab a lot of their energy from the warm surface waters  beneath them.  But, when a tropical system stops, the warm surface water gets essentially “used up.”  In fact, cooler water from below the ocean’s surface rises to the surface.  When this happens, the hurricane becomes energy deprived and weakens.  The longer Dorian remains stalled, the better the prospects become for the southeast U.S. coast.

As you might suspect, the closer (in time) Dorian comes to possible landfall, the closer the forecast agreement gets.  But, there are still some very destructive scenarios to consider.

Florida and Georgia Coasts:  Neither the GFS nor the euro models expect landfall along these coasts.  The GFS, however, does nudge Dorian closer to the coast.  Either way keeps any major storm problems away from these coasts.

South and North Carolina coasts:  The GFS continues the northeast movement of Dorian.  As the storm parallels the coast, A very strong storm surge will produce moderate to major damage.  How much damage depends upon how much Dorian weakens by that time – late Tuesday into early Thursday.  Another thing to consider is that the current weakening should be temporary.  Dorian will be riding the Gulf Stream along the coast and that warm water favors reintensification.

Meanwhile, the euro has Dorian closer to the North Carolina coast, with a possible touching of land, over North Carolina.  This is a decidedly worse scenario than the GFS is offering.

So in summary, the Florida and Georgia coastal areas are likely to have strong winds and very heavy rains.  But, extreme conditions are not likely.  However, severe damage is still a possibility for the Carolina coasts, especially from Myrtle Beach northward.  But, things change.  Stay tuned.

More changes, this time it’s better news

Sat.  Aug. 31, 2019  3:30 P.M.

Much better news for Florida!

Over my 50+ years of trying to into harmony with nature, I repeated countless times, “Don’t trust any forecast beyond two days.”  We still miss forecasts in days 1 and 2, but that forecast is usually pretty accurate.  But when you get beyond 2 days, things change.

Hurricane Dorian forecasts this week have been  a prime example.  Early this week Dorian was projected to hit somewhere along the Florida east coast.  Where?  We have many different models looking at the storm (you’ve probably seen the “Spaghetti Diagrams” on tv), but the  U.S. showcase is the GFS and the top model in the world is referred as the EURO.  Let’s just track those two.

Early in the week, the GFS landfall was predicted to be along the FL/GA border.  The euro focused on southern FL.  Over the next day or two, the GFS gradually worked its landfall southward to close to the euro position.  Yesterday, the GFS still predicted a hit north of Miami then at least a two day journey northward over Florida.  That matches the horrific damage projection I mentioned Thursday.

But, yesterday’s morning euro changed!  It no longer predicted Dorian to hit Florida.  Instead, it would get within a 100 miles or so, then turn slowly northward along the coast and probably not hit land until about North Carolina.  That’s VERY important!  As far a potential damage goes, there’s a huge difference between a hit and a near miss.  Meanwhile, the GFS maintained it’s devastating forecast.

This morning, the GFS caught up to the euro  with the “close miss” scenario, but was still putting landfall along the area along the North/South Carolina border.  Today’s euro, however, has shifted the storm track farther east, possibly even missing the Outer Banks.

So, what’s going to happen?

Good question.  We’re still more than two days away from U.S. coastal interaction and “trends” sometimes do reverse.   So, no one from Florida to North Carolina is completely out of danger yet.   But, current trends are indicating a much better situation, especially for Florida.  As it stands now, Florida’s biggest threat will come from beach erosion.   But remember, things change!

GFS vs. euro

Remember earlier this summer when the National Weather Service made a big fuss over it’s introduction of its “new and better” GFS version?  The model was designed to oust the euro as world’s best.  Dorian has been the first big test for the new GFS.  So far, so bad.  But, things change.  Let’s see how it plays out.

Stuff

The director of the Internal Revenue Service during the mid 1940’s later went to jail for failing to pay his income taxes.

Barry “underperforms”

Tuesday, July 16, 2019  4 P.M.

Barry provides a wet night

Remember all the frightful forecasts about the flooding rains Barry would cause last weekend over Louisiana and surrounding states?  Well, the storm did produce the normal heavy rains that a tropical storm does, but the big weather story for the past couple of days has been Barry’s “underperformance.”  A huge part of the damage and destruction predicted never happened.  That’s the good news.  Here’s the bad news:  All the familiar meteorologists’s phrases popped up – “We dodged the bullet”, “We got lucky”, and “The storm underperformed”.  Ah!  The world we live in.  All the reasons given imply that the forecast was correct.  Thus, it was nature that blew it!

Note to fellow forecasters:  Nature does NOT make mistakes, but we do.  Isn’t it about time that forecasters actually own up to their mistakes and just admit them rather than trying to push the blame to “the weather”?

Barry’s moisture finally reaches us.

Barry’s remnants are being picked up by a weak upper air system over the midwest that will push eastward tonight and cross the lower Ohio Valley by midday tomorrow.  Ahead of this system we’ll see periods of rain and a few thunderstorms tonight.  There could be a few lingering light showers tomorrow, but the bulk of the rain will be overnight.  Current model trends are for the heaviest rains to occur over the western third of KY and over the eastern third of KY later tonight and tomorrow.  Both of those areas could see 1″-2″ rain totals with perhaps higher totals in the mountains.  Most of southern IN and central KY should receive up to an inch of rain with a few areas higher if thunderstorms develop.

Break in the heat coming?

For at least a month, the GFS model has been predicting a change in the upper air pattern over North America.  The forecast has always been for the shift/change to occur 10 days to two weeks ahead.  But “next week’s cooling” has never shown up…yet.

Late last week the forecast was for a transition to the cooler pattern to happen Sun/Mon (July 21-2).  Now we’re less than a week away and the forecast hasn’t changed.  Could it be “real” this time?  It sure looks like it.  So, a more comfortable weather pattern should set if next week.

Then, the question becomes whether the cooler pattern will persist for several weeks or just be  a minor “blip” in the summer heat.  Longer range models keep the cooler pattern in place for most of August.  We’ll just have to wait and see.

Stuff:

There’s been a lot of news and celebration this week concerning the 50th anniversary of the Apollo II moon landing.  Here’s a tidbit I read this week…

The Apollo II computer system required about 145,000 lines of code.   (Today, Facebook runs about 62 million code lines while Google uses more than 2 billion lines!)

Earth Day 2019

Thoughts on Earth Day 50 

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Earth Day should be a day of joyful ceremony and celebration.  But, instead, it’s more of a horror show – full of predictions of death, misery, etc.  In general it’s a day of dire warnings of horrible doom and gloom in our near future.  And, of course, the fault is all ours.

So, why should Earth Day be a time of celebration?  Let’s take a quick look at what’s been going on for the past century, or so.                                                                                                                             1). Earth’s population in 1900 was an estimated 1.6 billion.  Poverty  rates and malnutrition rates were very high.  Disease was rampant.  Today Earth’s population is estimated at 7.8 billion.  Poverty rates and malnutrition rates are the lowest ever.  Many common diseases of the past have been eliminated.  (Or at least they were eliminated until some of today’s enlightened population decided that it might be fun to bring them back.  But, at least they’ve offered their own children as test subjects.  I digress.)

2).  Food was a scarce commodity in the first half of the 20th Century.  Now, thanks to a warming Earth, modern technology and higher carbon dioxide levels, food is abundant.  (So abundant in fact that in the U.S.  much of our corn production is not even eaten.  Rather, it goes to making ethanol which is then mixed with gasoline to make our cars run less efficiently.  In addition, the production/distribution of ethanol produces MORE carbon dioxide than it saves as a fuel!  Only in America!  I digress.)  Today, estimated global food production creates an equivalent of roughly 2800 calories per person per day.  Past Earth Day predictions foresaw mass starvation and global wars over food by now.  Unfortunately, food distribution is largely a political problem, so food is not shared equally.

3).  Earth Day sages have also missed on may other smaller scale predictions.  As it turns out Al Gore’s famous photo of a polar bear floating on a lonely, small iceberg was photoshopped.  Polar bears were not disappearing.  In fact their population is now higher than ever recorded.  Arctic Sea ice has not disappeared.  In fact, sea ice yearly minimums have actually be increasing over the past decade.  Global hurricane production/intensity has not increased in the past 3-4 decades.  (Yes, there’s been a lot more damage – because we keep building stuff on barrier islands.)  The frequency of winter storms has also shown no increase.

In fact, there have been articles floating around the internet recently “grading” 49 years of Earth Day predictions.  So far NOT ONE has come true!  And this year’s theme – species extinction – is sure to keep the Earth Day score unblemished.  Here it is:  30% to 50% of Earth’s species will be on the final road to extinction by 2050.  They’re calling it the 6th Great Extinction.  Interestingly, even if the prediction were to somehow prove to be correct, Earth would still have more species than BEFORE the last Great Extinction 65 million years ago.

So, what’s all the fuss about carbon dioxide?

There’s a very vocal sect with a religious-like  fervor that believes that increasing carbon dioxide is going to kill us all.  They don’t seem to realize that carbon dioxide is an extremely beneficial gas.  After all, life on  Earth is carbon based.  Many times in the past carbon dioxide levels have been much higher than now.  Most of the past 10,000 years Earth’s temperature has been higher than now.  We are still recovering from the Little Ice Age (started in the 16th century and ended about the mid 19th century).  The rate of global warming from the late 1970’s to about 2010 was just .1 deg. F more than a similar 30-year period at the start of the 20th Century.  So, it’s not so unusual.  Only then, nobody thought it was the beginning of the end of the world.

But, there is some concern about rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.  How much?  We just don’t know.  We’ve all heard/read estimates that a rise to about 550 parts per million would warm Earth by 3 to 8 degrees C  (5-14 deg F).  All those estimates come from computer modelling of the atmosphere.  Luckily, none of those models has ever shown much skill at its assigned task.  And, there are also additional problems with some assumptions the models make.

One thing we do know (at least we think we do) is if you only consider carbon dioxide and nothing else, Earth’s temperature should rise about 1 deg F.  for a carbon dioxide level of 550 ppm.  No big deal.

The problem, however, is that carbon dioxide doesn’t act alone.  It interacts with many things in the Earth/atmospheric system.  How much do all those interactions effect warming or cooling of the Earth.  The answer is:  We just don’t know!  Until we know definitively, we have no way to determine how much increasing carbon dioxide will change our world.  So far, the benefits from the increasing carbon dioxide far outweigh the negatives.

That’s why Earth Day should be a day of celebration rather a rant of doom and gloom.

Forecast models still at odds

Thursday, Feb. 14, 2019  4:30 P.M.

Snow possible tomorrow night!

Happy Valentines Day!

First of all – tonight.  A weak cold front will cross the area.  It has little upper air support and slim moisture available.  Nevertheless, it could squeeze out a few, brief light showers tonight.  Only about a 30% chance for a measurable amount.  Temperatures tomorrow should stay near 40 during the day.

Snow situation

The northwest U.S. is being pounded by yet another winter storm.  A small piece of upper air energy is breaking away from the parent system and will move eastward across the country over the next two days.  Both the GFS and NAM portray this system a little stronger than yesterday.  They still differ on the storm path and consequences for us.

The GFS is gung ho on snow for us as the surface system slides south of us tomorrow night.  GFS snow totals are around 2″ for Louisville area with heavier totals (up to 4″) over  SW Indiana and western Kentucky.  Snow forecast is even higher along a path from near Evansville to south of St. Louis to Kansas City.

Then, there is the NAM.  Like yesterday, it isn’t taking the snow very seriously for the Louisville area.  It projects the storm track to be a little farther south.  That puts us on the northern edge of the snow threat.  Southern KY will see a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain creating major road problems tomorrow night and early Saturday.  It also has the heavy snow from far western KY back into Missouri.

So, which model is correct?

Good question.  Can you wait until Sunday morning for the answer?  Of course not!  We want to know beforehand.  So, I’ll give you my thoughts on the situation.

In general, most of the forecasting fraternity will go with the GFS.  Over the long haul, it seems to be the better of the two.  But, this winter the GFS has had snow lovers salivating over two big snow forecasts.  Both times local media and National Weather Service followed the GFS and went into hype mode only to have both forecasts fail.  Overall, the GFS has been in a slump but the NWS is going along with its 2″ forecast for tomorrow night.

But, what about the NAM?  It’s a good model, too.  But the wide differences between the two models for this forecast must mean something.  If tomorrow night’s weather solution were “settled science”, the two models would be very close.  The fact that they are not close tells us there is something about this atmospheric setup that they can’t quite resolve.  In essence, neither model can be ignored.

So, here’s my best shot.  I’m leaning toward the NAM ideas having the surface storm taking a more southerly track.  That means less snow for the Louisville area.  I’m expecting less than one inch for Louisville metro.  Snow totals will increase south of the city and could get an inch or two down to the E’town area.  South of the parkway they’ll see the wintry mix described above.

West of Louisville snow accumulate along and south of I-64.  The farther west in IN/KY, the more snow – as high as 4″ near Evansville.  North of Louisville, little or no snow will fall.

Again,  I believe the Louisville area will be on the northern edge of the snow system.  I expect less than 1″…probably closer to the lower end of the range.

Valentines Day

For hundreds of years BCE (B.C.), the Romans celebrated a Spring ritual known as Lupercalia.  It was a fertility rite to welcome back the growing season, among other things.  It was celebrated around February 14th.  About 500 CE (A.D.) the Catholic Church  decided that Lupercalia was a little too bawdy  for its flock, so it was banned.  It was replaced by a new Church holiday they named Valentines Day in honor of an Italian saint who had been decapitated (by the Romans).

Another weekend…another storm

Thursday, January 17, 2019…4 P.M.

Subtle changes

If you’re a snow-lover you’re not going to like the small changes to Saturday’s forecast.  Both the GFS and NAM have drifted in the same direction, so I’ve got pretty good confidence the solution they are pointing toward looks realistic.

We’ve been tracking a storm system blasting northern California and a large chunk of Arctic air moving south from Canada.  Original thought was these two systems would merge over the Ohio Valley/midwest on Saturday.  The result of the merged system would bring us plenty of rain (2″-3″) Saturday.  Then, as the cold air rushed in Saturday night, we’d see an inch or two of snow.  I’ve heard talk of heavier snow, a “flash freeze,”  and single-digit temperatures (even sub-zero).

That’s all nonsense if the current model trends are correct.  The new idea is that the west coast trough and the cold air system will not get “in phase” until the primary surface storm system passes east of the Louisville area.  That means the storm system will not get to its rapid development stage until it gets to Ohio or beyond.

Consequences of the recent changes

1).  Rain remains likely most of the day Saturday.  But it won’t be as much.  Totals will probably range in the 1″ to 1.5″ range.

2).  Rain should end by Saturday evening and we’ll probably see some snow flurries and/or snow showers overnight.  Accumulation, if any, should be less than 1″.

3).  The initial surge of colder air will be slower to arrive.  Temperatures will not fall rapidly enough to allow a flash freeze.  Icy spots, however, will form on roadways during Saturday evening.

4).  Sunday will be very cold…probably near 20-22 all day.  Because the primary storm system will intensify north/east of Louisville, the cold air transport southward will be weaker.  Thus, it appears the local temperatures won’t drop into the single digits in the Louisville area either Monday or Tuesday morning.  Rural areas especially in southern IN could see lows below 10 degrees.)

Note:

The cold upper trough expected over the eastern parts of North America due to the Sudden Stratospheric Warning of late December is now in place.  This system should provide us with frequent snow opportunities and plenty of cold air for the next 2-4 weeks.  Forecasting should be lots of fun.

If you’d like a little more detail on what a Sudden Stratospheric Warming is, see my post from a couple of weeks ago.

Stuff:

We are constantly bombarded by the things that the climate change “hawks” want us to hear, so you probably missed the news that the U.S. is one of the world leaders in carbon emissions REDUCTION.  Yes, compared to the 2005 baseline, total U.S. emissions have dropped 11%, even though we had a small increase last year.  As a whole, Europe has dropped a little (1-3%) as well.  But, the rest of the world continues their rapid increases.  Roughly 80-90% of the nations which signed the Paris Climate Accord continue to increase their emissions.  China and India are by far the biggest offenders.

Let’s not blame China too much.  After all, they have a signed agreement with the U.S.  to keep increasing emissions as much as they want until 2030.  The Climate Gang praised that agreement as just about the greatest thing since (the proverbial) sliced bread.  I’ve always felt that the agreement gave China all the bread and the slicer.  Maybe we’ll get some crumbs out of the deal.

Weekend Weather Prospects

6:30 P.M. Thursday, Jan. 10, 2019

Snow and rain likely.

Forecast models have changed little since yesterday, but that’s enough to bring our weekend forecast into better focus.  The primary change is that the NGM and GFS have both warmed a little.  My worry from yesterday about that prospect is looking like a realistic idea.  Consequences follow:

General situation remains the same…a weak system coming out of the southwest will drift ENE across the southern states.  It will start to regenerate Sunday, but that will be too late for us.  With the low center staying to our south, we’ll have a northerly component to our winds, so the colder air will hold in place with only a slight warming modification.

Heavy snow will break out over northern AR and southern Missouri tomorrow and march eastward into KY/IN tomorrow night.  Snow should begin in the I-65 region about midnight or later.  Temperatures should remain at or above 32 degrees overnight, so snow should accumulate ON GRASSY AREAS !”-2″ by morning.  Roads will have only a small accumulation of slushy/wet snow, but,as always, drivers will find the icy spots.  Luckily, since it’ll be Saturday traffic should be light.

Saturday most of the overnight snow will melt away and roads will improve rapidly.  It’s also looking like little or no precipitation will fall during the day.  If anything falls from the sky during the day, it’ll be light rain.

Part 2

Light rain/drizzle moves in Saturday night and continues off and on until early Sunday.  During Sunday, the surface storm system pulls eastward and drags colder air back into the Ohio Valley.  Some light snow/flurries are likely during the day, but little, if any, accumulation is expected.

We need babies!

Read an article today about the slowing birth rate in the U.S.  In general, the thought goes, our female population needs to produce  2.1  children during her lifetime in order to keep our population stable.  Our current rate has dropped to about 1.7.  So, in spite of what we’re being told, we need those immigrants!

Sudden Stratospheric Warming

January 2, 2019

New hope for some actual “winter weather”

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).  I first became familiar with that term in early 1977.  For those of you with good memories, you’ll remember January 1977 as the coldest month in Louisville’s recorded weather history.  And it featured a good bit of snow as well.  At the time, the reason was given as rapidly warming stratosphere temperatures over the Arctic. Some studies of the stratosphere began in the 1950’s, but it remained a rather esoteric field until 1977 when Mother Nature decided to put on a demonstration of the full effects of SSW.  January started normally, but by the second week we were covered with snow and extreme cold. The cold air just kept on coming.  The average temperature for the month was 18.6 degrees – far below the previous record.  In early February, warmer weather returned and dominated the rest of the month.  That was it.  Four weeks of the coldest weather we’ve ever seen!

Today, many people enjoy walking over the Ohio River on the Big Four bridge.  Back in 1977, however, many people walked  to Indiana across the frozen Ohio River.

What brings up this discussion about the SSW is that we’ve just experienced another one.  As far as I can tell this warming event is not nearly as strong as the 1977 event.  Even so, the general consequences of a SSW remain the same.  The sudden warming fouls up the circulation of the now commonly-called Polar Vortex.  In recent years, the media have blamed the Polar Vortex for just about every moderate to strong winter storm.  True, but somewhat misleading.  Usually the storms are created by a strong pocket of atmospheric energy which breaks off the Vortex and digs south into the U.S.  During  a SSW event, however, the warming actually breaks up the vortex into two (rarely three) major troughs which drop out of the Arctic into the middle latitudes.  Usually, the strongest cold weather hits Europe while the weaker one sets up over eastern North America.

Normally, the time between the appearance of the SSW until the consequences reach our surface weather is two weeks.  So, right about the middle of this month, our mild winter will vanish for about four weeks.  Cold, and probably snow, should be plentiful during that time.

Don’t give up on winter yet!

The little engine that could

Tuesday, January 16, 2018  3 P.M.

The relatively small weather system that moved ever so slowly over southern IN and KY yesterday was amazing to watch.  It just didn’t want to move in spite of the models efforts to move it away last evening.  Watching the snow pattern move across the radar screen last night was like watching the proverbial paint dry.  In spite of the prolonged period of snow, the system still couldn’t generate much snow, but it was an amazing effort.

The last very cold surge (for at least two weeks) of Arctic air has arrived and will dominate our weather for the next two days.  We’re seeing a good example of the power of the sun this afternoon.  The air temperature is only in the mid teens but yet we’re getting a lot of melting on asphalt roads.  Concrete roads don’t absorb as much heat, so they haven’t melted as much snow.

By all large scale features, we should be having temperatures at zero or below tonight.  The coldest part of the cold air mass will be over us tonight,  we have a snow cover, clear skies and light winds.  That normally would produce temperatures in the 0 to -10 range.  However, model and human forecasts are predicting a low range of 5 to 10 degrees. Why?  Lake Effect

We normally think of snow when Lake Effect is mentioned.  Not this time.  This is more subtle.  The model suite is in agreement that low level winds (3,000 to 8,000 feet) will develop a fetch (flow pattern) from Lake Michigan SSE across IN and into the eastern half of KY.  It’s too weak to produce snow, but it should be able to produce mostly cloudy skies after midnight.  The clouds trap what little heat we have so our temperatures stay higher.  (Skies should remain mostly clear 30-40 miles west of Louisville, so sub zero temperatures are likely there.)

The ability of today’s weather forecast models to pick up on such small details as a Lake Effect’s ability to alter our weather (hundreds of miles away)  is really amazing.  We’re light years ahead of the two primitive models I started using more than 50 years ago.