Sat. Oct 26, 2019 3 P.M
Windy and wet
As I usually do when I get up in the morning, I turn on NOAA Weather Radio to get an idea on what the latest ideas are. I didn’t get much help today. Rain…yes, but that has been pretty obvious for the past couple of days.
But, high winds were also expected today. Here’s what I got… from the “official forecast” the winds were predicted for this afternoon to be 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. However, there was also a Wind Advisory. That said late afternoon gusts would be 40-45 mph with a few gusts possibly reaching 50 mph. Well, there is quite a difference between 30 mph and 50 mph gusts. Thirty is pretty ordinary; fifty can create significant damage. So we’re getting two very different forecasts at the same time! Probably should have just used the word “windy” and let everybody decide for themselves.
At least the Noon forecast updated the gusts up to 35 mph, but that doesn’t change the situation very much.
Meanwhile, the latest short term models have been lowering their wind predictions. Current indications point to the strongest wind gusts should be between 4 and 7 P.M. My best current estimate is for gusts reaching 35 and 40 mph with perhaps into the low 40’s
U of L’s Homecoming game should see those gusty winds and about a 50-50 mix of showers/no showers during the game.
UK’s game should also see a rain/no rain mix. However, the winds should be quite a bit weaker. Top gusts around 30 mph or so.
Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2019
Spent some time this morning and again this afternoon looking at the GFS and NAM forecasts for the rest of the week. Both models move a full-latitude trough into the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. It’ll positive-tilted, so no major storm development is expected here. But, there’s almost certainly going to be plenty of moisture around with a large area getting rain, especially Friday night.
Then I checked the National Weather Service’s forecast. This morning they had a 20% chance for rain Friday. Now, the Friday/Friday night forecast has no mention of rain at all!
I’ve said this thousands of times..things change. And I’m certain Friday won’t turn out exactly as the models are saying now. But, if your two most important forecast tools are practically yelling “rain” at you, shouldn’t you at least mention the possibility in your forecast?
Ohio Valley part of storm fades
Oct. 21, 2019 4 P.M.
Since late last week I’ve been hearing all these horror stories about today’s weather – heavy rain, flash flooding, possible severe storms, strong winds, etc.
Well, Monday has arrived and only (mostly) one part of the forecast will be correct. We have had strong winds – gusts in the mid 30’s. Although we were led to believe they’d be about 10 mph stronger.
Periods of rain are likely through about 9 P.M. though total rainfall should be about a quarter-inch or less. A little lightning will be possible around 8 P.M. Winds will still remain gusty- gusts possible of 30-35 mph late afternoon but diminishing this evening.
This situation brought back a story about a former WAVE weathercaster from waaaay back. He had predicted the next day to be sunny, windy and warm. Instead, we had a cloudy, cool, rainy and windy day.
His next broadcast began this way…”See, I told you it was going to be windy today!”
Just checked the afternoon forecast from the NWS. Cloudy with a high in the upper 70’s.
Here we are sitting under cloudy skies, light NE winds at about 60 degrees. How are we going to get almost 20 degrees of warming over the next 4-5 hours? We’re not. Even if the clouds cleared immediately, we’d be hard pressed to get that warm. In reality, clouds should begin to thin by 3-4 P.M. Even with thinning clouds, we’ll be lucky to reach the low 70’s. Around 70 seems more likely.
What’s up? Isn’t anyone paying attention?
A little perspective…
Slashing and burning of the Amazon has been going on for decades. All of a sudden this year, it became the “climate destruction gang’s” next big thing on the climate agenda. But why now? The average amount of deforestation over the past five years has been only about 50% of what was occurring 20 years ago.
Don’t get me wrong on this, Amazon deforestation is (and has been) a big climate problem. But, programs have been ongoing for years to reduce the burning. Success has been modest, but this certainly is not a new problem.