4:45 P.M. Tuesday (April 7)
Line of strong thunderstorms moving toward Louisville has been the source of numerous Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings over the past hour or two. So far, upper circulation has been noted but no reports of any actual tornadoes.
Radar indications are showing the small line shifting southward while the northern edge is becoming more obscured due to heavy rain. If this trend continues (it should), the greatest threat to the Louisville area will be just south of the city – northern Hardin, Meade and Bullitt Counties should see strong winds and heavy rains. A small (weak ) tornado is not out of the question.
Meanwhile, the northern half of the line approaching the Louisville area will lose it’s severe weather threat, but still bring heavy downpours and gusty winds. All activity should pass east and south of Louisville by 6 P.M.
Note: 4:55 P.M.
Quick radar update shows line acting as described above. Primary severe threat will pass south of Louisville. Northern area seems to be weakening quickly, Thus, severe threat for Jefferson Co and Clark and Floyd Cos. will be very low. Meanwhile, northern Hardin and Bullitt Co. will be hardest hit, maybe with severe winds, but tornado chances are very low.
Friday 3 P,M. (April 3)
I know there’s a Tornado Watch in effect, but realistically it shouldn’t include the Louisville area. Thunderstorms, not especially strong ones, moving through the area at this time were the reason the Watch included us. But, they certainly are not strong enough to do any “storm” damage here. Flooding, however, is a different concern. Additional heavy rains until about 4-4:30 could easily accentuate our local flooding problems.
The current Tornado Watch has a more realistic chance of producing severe storms over the southern half of Kentucky later this afternoon and evening. At this time, the most likely locations for severe weather appear to along the Tennessee/Kentucky border west of I-65 during the couple of hours. By early this evening, the primary threat will be over southeastern KY (mostly east of I-75).
The current storms in Louisville area are bringing northerly winds in their wake. That means cooler and drier air will slide in after 4 P.M. That means “goodbye” to any severe storm threat for us. I hope the Storm Prediction Center catches on to this and drops us from the Watch area. Based on past experience, that won’t happen. The horse is dead guys, you can stop beating it!
It’s now 3:20 P.M.
Heaviest part of storm cluster has now moved into Oldham, Shelby and Spencer Counties. And, it looks weaker. Still some renewed flooding concerns, but probably not much. Any threat for severe storms is over for anybody within 35 miles or so of Louisville.
Stuff – total lunar eclipse late tonight.
Skies should clear tonight, so early risers tomorrow morning should get a good view of a total eclipse of the moon. It’ll be “total” for a shorter time than usual (less than five minutes) and harder to see thanks to the morning light, but still it’s a chance to see a relatively rare event. For full details visit: www.spaceweather.com
Thursday evening (April 2)
It’s not too often when hail is the primary ingredient in severe weather around here. But that’s the way it was this afternoon AND we could easily see another surge or two of additional Hail-makers tonight. Chances are, though, that hail won’t get as large tonight. Wind gusts should remain in the “nothing to worry about” range tonight.
Current Severe Storm Watch was issued after the storms were past, so that too is nothing to worry about locally.
A small area of t-storms approaching Evansville should be in our area between about 9 P.M. to Midnight. These have lost the help of daytime heating, so small hail seems to be the best they can do.
Later tonight, an upper air system becomes more active over the area and another surge of thunderstorms becomes likely from about 5 A.M. to 9 A.M. In spite of the late-night timing, these storms look capable of another round of hail and some gusty winds.
Additional showers/t-storms appear likely again tomorrow afternoon and evening, but severe weather does not appear to be a threat at that time.