Monthly Archives: September 2019

Dorian footnotes

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5 P.M. Friday, Sept. 6,2019

Some laughs in a serious situation

Looking back on some things said this week, it appears the U.S. coastline got off pretty easily.  We had plenty of damage, but nothing that could compare anywhere close to the damage sustained by our Bahamian neighbors just 100 or so miles east of Florida.

Meanwhile, I just couldn’t resist laughing at our Prevaricator-in-Chief.  Some really funny sound bites – actually, though, crying should have been my reaction instead of laughter.  But, when the Prevaricator speaks about science, funny things roll out of his mouth.  He’s the classic example of speaking first, thinking later.

1).  Alabama.  He postpones (or cancels) a trip to Poland because of the potential hurricane damage to Alabama.  No National Hurricane Center bulletins on Dorian ever mentioned Alabama.  There was never a potential threat to ‘Bama.  (Of course, now he’ll probably ask the citizens of Alabama to vote for him because he kept the storm away from them.  Prevaricator-in- Chief indeed,)

2). Cat 5.   Numerous quotes earlier this week about…Category 5, nothing like this has ever happened before.  Who can believe this?  Amazing, Category 5’s just don’t happen.  And on and on.  Trouble is, he used the same words over and over and over in 2017 when another Category 5 storm approached the U.S.  Are we talking about memory loss or slow learner or both.

3).  Nuke it.  Hurricanes should be no problem, says the PIC.  We can just nuke ’em.  In any other reality, that just makes matters worse.  Instead of a hurricane hitting the coast, we’d have a radioactive hurricane hitting the coast.  We’d need a far different system to clean up from that hurricane.  Why won’t nuking a hurricane work.? The amount of energy nature works with dwarfs what we humans can do.  The NHC estimates that a typical average hurricane releases an amount of energy equal to about 10,000 average nuclear bombs.  Over an typical 7 day lifetime, that amounts to about one bomb per MINUTE.

Basically, the PIC should keep away from talking about science.

P.S.  I’ve just had an even scarier thought.  What if his science advisers told him to say those things???

Not much more to say about Dorian

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Six P.M. Thursday, Sept 5, 2019

Dorian approaching North Carolina

Dorian is weakening but still poses a threat to  SE North Carolina. It’ll move along, perhaps touching, the coast tonight and exit off of Cape Hatteras around midday tomorrow.

So, we sit back and wait to see the results.  It certainly won’t be as bad as some of the projections issued earlier this week.  But, it still looks like beach erosion will be extensive.

Some of the video from the northern Bahamas look almost unbelievable.

The next 36 hours are going to be tough for the Carolinas

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Wed, Sept 4, 2019  6 P.M.

Gulf Stream providing more fuel

Now that Dorian has cleared the Bahamas and moved over the warmer Gulf Stream waters, the storm’s winds and organization are picking.  Quite likely Dorian will move back to Cat 3 status, if it isn’t already there.

For the past couple of days, I’ve been focusing on the area between Myrtle Beach and the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the most at risk from this storm.  That’s still the case.  The full force of the winds plus the wind-driven storm surge will hit the South Carolina coast tonight and move along the coast until leaving the Outer Banks Friday morning.

Forecast models are consistent that the storm path will hug the coastline.  In fact, there’s a growing consensus that Dorian will make landfall for at least a few hours in North Carolina.

Official forecasts predict at least a 7-8 foot storm surge over northern South Carolina and probably higher over North Carolina.  The highest storm surges will occur at the time of high tides.  These storm surges were based on Dorian when the storm was weaker.  Now that intensification is occurring,  the waves could be even higher.

Whether Dorian is a Cat 2 or Cat 3, the Carolina coast is going to take quite a pounding during the next 36 hours.

 

Weaker Dorian approaching the U.S.

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Tuesday, Sept 4, 2019  4P.M.

Little change since yesterday.  Models in very close agreement.

Important to note:  Dorian has weakened and is nor longer capable of catastrophic damage.  Dorian’s energy to do work, or its force, is now only about 40% of what it was the past two days.

Thus, Florida as expected gets off easy – minor to moderate beach erosion.  The beaches of the Carolinas will not be so lucky.  Major to severe erosion is likely as Dorian rides RIGHT along the coast, or briefly inland, late tomorrow through early Friday.  The area from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks will be the worst hit.

Dorian has stopped, for now

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Sunday, Sept. 2, 2019  5 P.M.

Northern Bahamas still getting blasted

Dorian has weakened a bit today, down to a Cat 4, but is still very potent.  The weakening trend should continue for awhile due to interaction with land.  More importantly, weakening may be even greater than expected because the storm has essentially stopped.  To simplify things, hurricanes grab a lot of their energy from the warm surface waters  beneath them.  But, when a tropical system stops, the warm surface water gets essentially “used up.”  In fact, cooler water from below the ocean’s surface rises to the surface.  When this happens, the hurricane becomes energy deprived and weakens.  The longer Dorian remains stalled, the better the prospects become for the southeast U.S. coast.

As you might suspect, the closer (in time) Dorian comes to possible landfall, the closer the forecast agreement gets.  But, there are still some very destructive scenarios to consider.

Florida and Georgia Coasts:  Neither the GFS nor the euro models expect landfall along these coasts.  The GFS, however, does nudge Dorian closer to the coast.  Either way keeps any major storm problems away from these coasts.

South and North Carolina coasts:  The GFS continues the northeast movement of Dorian.  As the storm parallels the coast, A very strong storm surge will produce moderate to major damage.  How much damage depends upon how much Dorian weakens by that time – late Tuesday into early Thursday.  Another thing to consider is that the current weakening should be temporary.  Dorian will be riding the Gulf Stream along the coast and that warm water favors reintensification.

Meanwhile, the euro has Dorian closer to the North Carolina coast, with a possible touching of land, over North Carolina.  This is a decidedly worse scenario than the GFS is offering.

So in summary, the Florida and Georgia coastal areas are likely to have strong winds and very heavy rains.  But, extreme conditions are not likely.  However, severe damage is still a possibility for the Carolina coasts, especially from Myrtle Beach northward.  But, things change.  Stay tuned.

Dorian now a Cat 5

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Sunday, Sept. 1, 2019  6 P.M.

Northern Bahamas getting blasted

In the past couple of hours, winds are believed to have gusted to over 180 mph at Great Abaco.  The storm is down to a forward speed about 5 mph toward the west, so high danger will last for quite a while.

Meanwhile, the model forecasts are now very close together concerning the eventual path of Dorian.  In general, they expect the slow westward drift to continue until Tuesday.  Then, a turn to the north followed by turn to the northeast by midweek.  Also, a slow drop in the max winds is expected as the storm makes its poleward move.  But, Dorian should still remain a major hurricane until late in the week.

Little has changed in the projected path since yesterday.  Dorian is expected to parallel, BUT NOT CROSS  the east coast of Florida and Georgia.  There will be some high surf problems, but, overall, this is very good news compared what it looked like several days ago.

It gets a little trickier, however, as the storm parallels the South and North Carolina  coastline.  Due to coastal geography there, if Dorian is still a high Cat 3 or Cat 4, the storm surge will be very severe.  Major to catastrophic damage could be the result.  Luckily we will be about halfway between a new moon and a full moon, so natural tides will be lower.  That will lessen the impact of the storm surge.

Back to the “model battles”

The GFS predicts the scenario described above.  Dorian really hugs the east coast of the Carolinas.  That’s the bad news.  The euro continues to predict a path farther away from the coast.  Now, the difference looks to be about 200-300 miles.  Not much in the big picture but the situation predicted by the euro isn’t really a big deal whereas the GFS  forecast could create a very serious situation.