Category Archives: forecast

Thursday’s main concern looks to be sleet.

5 P.M. Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022

Basic ideas put forth in yesterday’s post still hold.  However, some subtle changes in the models since yesterday, to my mind anyway, seem to be shifting the primary focus away from freezing rain toward sleet.  And we’re not talking about just a little sleet.  Over an inch of sleet is possible!  We don’t see that very often.

Here’s my current idea about this will play out.  Rain begins around rush hour tomorrow and continues off and on through the day and night.  Temperatures will be about 50 tomorrow morning and slowly fall into the lower 30’s by Thursday’s morning rush hour.

Thursday morning the rain will become freezing rain but, with daylight and temperatures in the lower 30’s, the freezing rain should create few problems.  Things get really interesting during the afternoon.  Sleet will mix in with the freezing rain and quickly become the dominate precipitation form until all precipitation fades away during the evening.  A brief period of snow will be possible as the sleet ends.

The big question in my mind is when the sleet begins.  An early afternoon start could result in significant accumulations while a late afternoon onset would create far fewer problems.  At this time, an earlier start looks more likely.  That would produce a 1″-2″ sleet accumulation – a major driving mess.

Things can still change in the next 48 hours.  Another update tomorrow.

Stuff

Over the past two years the Corona Virus has killed 0.3% of the U.S. population.  World War II  also killed 0.3% percent of our population, but it took twice as long.

Ice Storm possible Thursday

6 P.M. Monday, Jan. 31, 2022

Three days ahead is a very difficult time to figure out what a storm system is going to do.  Never one to shy away from the attempt, however, here’s what the models are telling me today.

1).  Heavy rains are likely Wednesday and Thursday.  2″-3″ are possible.

2).  Another huge mass of cold air is dropping out of Canada and will be dropping only very slowly southward.  Upper upper air winds will be opposing the southward push of cold low level air.  The result will be a very shallow cold air mass reaching us during Thursday.  That is a big indicator for freezing rain and sleet, not snow.

3).  Thursday morning we’ll see rain with slowly falling temperatures during the day.  About 40 deg at morning rush hour sliding to the lower 30’s by evening rush hour.  The southern half of Indiana should be in freezing rain by morning with sleet farther north of the Ohio River.

As temperatures cool  freezing rain could move south of the Ohio during the afternoon.  Freezing rain should be of little consequence for Louisville during the day.

4).  Thursday evening,  precipitation will diminish quickly with a period of sleet/snow.  Accumulation of snow/ice should be less than one inch.

5).  A significant ice storm is likely over southern Indiana (except counties bordering the Ohio River).

6).  Snow will not be a factor locally.  However, the northern half of Indiana should expect 6″ – 12″ of snow Thursday.

Exciting few hours ahead

Fri. Jan 28, 2022  3 P.M.

A small, fast moving and potent upper disturbance will race across our area from now until about 7 P.M.

Most of the area will see snow showers and flurries with accumulations up to one inch.  However, a narrow swath of much heavier snow showers, about 25-40 miles across, will be embedded in the wider snow area.  Forecast models are currently projecting the axis of heavier snow to run from southern Indiana (west of I-65)  through Louisville metro then southsoutheastward  through KY.

Models project 2″-4″ of quick hitting snow squalls in narrow lines within this snow swath.  Meanwhile spots only a few miles from the heavy snow will see very little.  Wouldn’t it be cool to be lucky enough yourself in the middle of the action?  Unfortunately, most of us will be in the “near-miss” category.

Little, if any, snow tonight

4 P.M.  Wed., Jan. 19, 2022

Short term models continue to push tonight’s area of accumulating snow south.  Latest GFS isn’t out yet, but the trend is clear from the NAM, Nam HiRes, RUC and HRRR.  Louisville area should see possibly a dusting (less than a half inch) (two models) or nothing (two models).  So the pickings are pretty lean for snow lovers locally.

It’s a different story, however, for southern and eastern KY.  Wide area south and east of a line from southern Hardin County to  Frankfort to Ashland will see accumulations from 2″ to 4″.  Some spots will probably top 4″.

Louisville appears destined to see just a short period of snow.  Rain-to-snow changeover should happen between 6 and 7 P.M.  Any significant precipitation will end shortly thereafter.  That should add up to a dusting, at best.

Seasonably cold weather air takes over tonight and should last through Friday.

Stuff

Of every 15 potential cancer treatment drugs submitted to the FDA for approval, about 14 never make it out of the testing phase.

Snow chances fading

Three Chances for snow ahead

6 P.M. Friday, Jan. 14, 2022

Major upper air disturbance dropping south through central U.S. tonight will continue dropping heavy snows from southern Minnesota to Iowa to northern Missouri.  Some spots (especially central Iowa) could get 8″+.  Snow falls will lessen as the storm loses the upslope surface winds from central Missouri into Arkansas.  Any significant snows from this system will stay west of us, but the Louisville could get snow showers tomorrow morning.  No accumulation expected here.

Meanwhile, the upper air storm is expected to drop all the way to southern Louisiana, drift eastward for awhile, then head up the Appalachians Sunday afternoon and night.  This, too, should become a major snow-maker.  Highest snow totals will ride along and east of the mountains.

As the storm intensifies Sunday, the precipitation shield will expand westward.  This could reach as far west as Louisville, but we’ll be too far west to see anything significant.  Less than an inch, if anything for Louisville.  A little rain could mix in as well. East of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland could see several inches.

As the storm accelerates northeast Sunday night, a cold front will sweep across IN/KY early Monday morning.  This will bring us our third chance for snow.  It’ll probably just be some flurries and/or snow showers.  Little, if any, snow expected.

Frustrating!

Model reversal

Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022  5:30 P.M.

Models still far apart

Yesterday, the GFS was predicting a big snow Sunday while the Blend of models was predicting little to no snow.  Today’s the Nam’s forecast reaches out to Sunday and offers another opinion.

Today, the GFS takes the storm considerably farther south before heading north along the Appalachians.  That means for us:  1″-2″ Sunday.

The BLEND continues on it’s southern track and a little east along the mountains.  For us: little, if any, snow.  If yes to snow, up to an inch.

The latest NAM has the storm track a little north and west of the GFS prediction.  Projection for us:  2″ – 4″ starting late Saturday.

Tomorrow: check back to see if the models get any closer to agreement.

Stuff

About 75 to 80 shark bites are reported around the world each year.  In New York City, however, roughly TEN times more bites are reported of people biting people.

Snow Thursday

Little change since yesterday

11 P.M. Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022

Model outlooks are little changed since yesterday.  The GFS predicts the lowest accumulation with the NAM products and model blend about an inch to two higher.

GFS – 1″-2″

Nam- 2-3″

Blend has 2.3″ for Louisville

Snow should begin around 11 A.M. and end before 6 P.M.

My thoughts:  Many times I’ve wished the NAM would be correct, but most of the time the GFS turns out better.  So I’d say Louisville area 1-2″ with increasing snowfalls south and east.  Could top 8″ over southeast KY.

Think snow!

La Nina winter working normally

Just like it’s supposed to be.

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

El Ninos get most of the attention, but little sister (La Nina) can step to the plate just as well.  Both systems can be traced back centuries and they tend to operate in irregular cycles.  Over a cycle of decades we’ll see long periods where El Ninos are more frequent and stronger than La Ninas.  One of those started fading about 5-10 years ago.  We’re now in a cycle where the La Ninas dominate.

We are currently in a moderate La Nina phase.  During a La Nina time, the jet stream over the Paciific is pushed northward so that heavy winter precipitation hits northern California, Oregon and Washington while leaving southern California and Arizona very dry. Example: snowfall in Oregon in December set a record high.

After the west coast, the jet stream generally runs along the U.S.- Canadian border before dipping into the northeast.  That was the story for December as most of the U.S. had a very warm December.  Meanwhile, Canada was very cold compared to normal.

But, as the cold dome builds to our north, it eventually has to break under the jet stream and head south.  Right on schedule, that’s what is happening now.  The cold dome is breaking free.  The past couple of days have actually produced below normal temperatures.  And another lobe of even colder air will arrive tomorrow.  That should keep temperatures below freezing Thursday and maybe Friday.

In addition, a weak disturbance will form along the cold front to our south and spread some snow as far north as southern Indiana.  The water content will be very low, but with temperatures in the 20’s light snow should be able to “fluff up” to about 1-2″ Thursday afternoon and evening.

When the cold air dips out of Canada, history shows that the below normal temperatures and snow chances increase for two-three weeks.  So look for unseasonable cold weather into mid January.  By that time Canada has lost most of its excessive cold dome.  Rebuilding begins up north, and abnormally warm weather returns to much of the U.S.  Translation:  February will be very warm.  However, often a La Nina winter ends with another round of the cold air escaping Canada in early March.

Such is life in an La Nina winter!

Dry weather continues.

Rain chances are fading

Friday, August 13, 2021  4 P.M.

Looks like the “Friday the thirteenth” superstition will come true in at least one topic today…rainfall.  All week forecasters have been pointing to today as our best bet for some rain to ease our lengthening dry spell.  Now, however, it seems likely the rain won’t develop locally.

A weak cool front is slowly working southward over Indiana, but this front has been unable to generate any showers/thunderstorms today.  And most likely won’t be able to.  Instead, a line of showers and thunderstorms formed just east of us earlier this afternoon and is moving into northeastern KY.

Still some hope the front could kick up some rain this evening, but don’t count on it.  Short term models keep us dry tonight.  Needed rainfall won’t return until Monday afternoon at the earliest.

Stuff

Starting in the late 1890’s, Scottish-American industrialist donated funding to build 2509 libraries around the world.  1679 were in the U.S.  Indiana built 156 Carnegie Libraries while 23 were built in Kentucky.  Louisville got a $450,000 grant in 1899 to build 9 public libraries.

From 70 degrees to snow in 12 hours?

Tuesday, April 20, 2021  6 P.M.

It could happen tonight!

Our weather has been pretty dull lately.  Dull in the sense that not much “weather” has been nearby.  So most of April has been quite pleasant.  The absence of typical stormy Spring weather has allowed a great opportunity to see more of nature’s awakening beauty.

But, tonight’s weather could be highly unusual.  A small, but very cold, upper air system will drift over us tonight.  It’ll bring along a pocket of colder air behind a developing cold front.  That will provide enough lift to squeeze some moisture out of the atmosphere.  It won’t be much (less than a quarter inch) and won’t last long (from about 10 P.M. to 4 A.M.).  However, the upper level cold air will produce snow.  The big question will be “How soon will the surface cold air arrive.” At onset, the snow will be melted by the currently mild air so we’ll see rain.  The rain will help cool (by evaporation) the low-level temperatures.  That, along with the colder air advancing into our area, will create rapidly falling temperatures.  By about 2 A.M. temperatures should drop into the upper 30’s.  Then, the colder air will slow the melting process.  Basically, the smaller snow flakes will melt while the larger flakes should be able to make it to the surface before completely melting.  Over the next two hours temperatures may drop another degree or two, so at times it may become only very wet snow.  Then, by 4 A.M.  the steady rain/snow will move east of our area.

Snow accumulation?  Not likely on the ground or roadways.  However, some tree limbs, rooftops and cars/trucks could see small accumulations.

Then we’ll have a couple of unseasonably cool days before Spring returns.

Stuff

36 degrees is the 50%-50% temperature for rain and/or snow. Above 36 the odds rapidly favor rain.  Below 36, the odd rapidly favor snow.

Guns:  Since 1975, guns have been responsible for  the death of 1.5 million Americans. Since the Revolutionary War, about 1.4 million Americans have died in all U.S. wars and conflicts.  (Seems like our “well armed militia” is better at killing Americans than enemy combatants.)  Does anyone see a problem here?