Friday, May 16, 2025 4:30 PM

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT

Storm system has been developing as expected. Numerous reports of extreme winds (more than 74 mph) and/or large hail (2″ diameter or more) have been concentrated mostly over SE MO. No tornado reports so far (4:20 PM) although the threat still remains.

As expected, the system appears to be organizing into a large line as it crosses the Mississippi River and races eastward at 50-55 miles per hour. One short-term model (RAP) is hinting at two squall lines forming – one ahead of the cold front and another with the front. In general, the 8 to 10 PM arrival time still looks pretty good. However, if the two thunderstorm lines idea works out, the first one could be in the 7-8 PM time frame with the second one about 9-10 PM.

Stay alert to local media for any warnings that may be issued.

Friday, may 16, 2025 12:30 PM

Situation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. Todays heating has been delayed by morning rain/clouds, but we’ll be into sunshine and strong southerly winds soon. That’ll be enough to still put us under a strong severe storms threat this evening. Best estimate looks like 8-10 PM tonight.

Currently, soon-to-be severe thunderstorms are firing over northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. This area will gradually merge into a line or two of severe thunderstorms and move rapidly eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Individual supercells will be possible ahead of the actual cold front pushing the squall line eastward. These supercells should be especially dangerous. Luckily for us, the most likely place for these isolated storms will occur from near the Mississippi River into West KY, southern IL and southern IN. It’s expected that these supercells will merge into lines and weaken a bit before reaching us.

Again, expect a line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms to pass through the Louisville area between about 8 to 10 PM.