Monthly Archives: February 2019

Happy Groundhog Day

Sat. Feb. 2, 2019

Early spring has arrived

We’ve now completed the cycle created by the Sudden Stratosphere Warming we began talking about about a month ago.  The breakoff vorticies from the polar jet stream have retreated northward to allow warmer air to take over.  The last segment of the polar vortex to hit the U.S. was extremely cold for the Great Lakes and northeast but moderated quickly as it pushed southward.  We didn’t even drop to zero ( 3 was the lowest), so it certainly wasn’t even close to “record breaking” as it was to our north and east.

With the polar jet now back home, the next few (maybe, many) systems to produce our weather will arrive via the Pacific Ocean, so they’ll be warmer.  And, with a little help from the Gulf of Mexico, probably wetter as well. The first will arrive Monday night.  Then, a large slow-moving system could provide periods of rain from Wednesday through Friday.

The GFS isn’t even hinting at decent snow chances for the next couple of weeks.  We’re going back to the West Coast Cold – Eastern U.S. Warm pattern that was prominent from late December to early January.  Get out your raincoat and put away the snow shovel for awhile.

The Groundhog

Punxsutawney Phil was rudely awakened from his hibernation around daybreak today.  His handler then read a statement “supposedly” from Phil.  The guy in the funny top hat announced that we’ll have an early spring.

The GFS and the seasonal model both say the same thing – early spring.  I consider that a far superior source for weather data.