4:30 P.M. Sunday, March 15, 2026

A major Winter/Spring storm is currently in Northern IL. Snow and blizzard conditions are located west, north and northeast of the storm. On the south side, however, we have a far different story – high potential for severe thunderstorms. Highest risk will be over southern IL/SE MO/AR. Tornado Watches cover this area but so far not much has happened.

Why not? Moisture! As the system moves quickly NE tonight, cold air will sweep eastward into a moisture field that has been advancing northward today. Lines of potential severe storms are just now beginning to form in the Watch area. The cold front is expected to advance rapidly eastward and move through the Louisville area between 10 P.M. and 1 A.M. Our big question is will the line of storms still be severe when it gets here.

According to our forecast models, the answer is no. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the answer is yes. They expect the line to continue to produce severe storms all night over eastern KY down to the Gulf (of Mexico) coast.

Who’s right? We’ll find out over the next 8 hours. I expect a Watch to be issued over the area. I also expect the storms to be weaker than to our west. But, the dynamics are so strong that some scattered severe storms will be likely between 11P.M. and 1 M.M. It’s going to be a very windy night…no matter what.