Late afternoon could get stormy

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4 P.M.

After the wide model divergence this morning, it’s looking more and more likely as though the short-term models will win out over the big guys (GFS and NAM).  To their credit, the NAM and GFS are rapidly catching on.

Storm Prediction Center has a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH covering about the western half of KY, but it stops short of Louisville.  It doesn’t matter about the watch boundary, because we’re in just as much risk (low) for severe winds as the folks to our west are.  A line of thunderstorms covers southwestern IN and western KY and is rapidly moving eastward – pushing quite strong gusty winds our way.  Radar estimates suggest 60-70 mph winds, but surface results usually don’t match the estimates.  Nevertheless, extreme southern IN and the Louisville area can expect strong (perhaps severe) wind gusts as this line races  through the metro area between approximately 5:15 and 6:30 P.M.  Scattered minor damage and some power outages are likely during that time.

The threat of severe winds from this system drops to near zero very quickly north of I-64.  The above description and timing pertain mostly to the area of IN and KY along and south of I-64.

 

 

Interesting forecast problem today

Thursday, July 7, 2016  11 A.M.

Looking at this morning’s forecast models and actual forecasts is almost a case of “What’s going on?”  Everything you look at has a different story to tell.  First, the NWS forecast includes a scant 20% chance for rain/t-storms today and another 20% chance tonight.  The backbone of our forecast system, the GFS produces a 1% chance today and about 40% tonight (LAMP) and a 4% chance today, 45% tonight (MOS).  Meanwhile, the NAM model output is also low…11% today and 53% tonight.  By the way, all of the “tonight” forecasts call for the rain after midnight.

On the other hand, the Storm Prediction Center gives us a 40% chance for thunderstorms today and just 10% tonight.   Then, the two primary short-term forecasts chime in with a slight different story.  Both the RAP and the HRRR predict a line of thunderstorms to reach the Louisville area between roughly 8 P.M. and Midnight.  Earlier today I saw WAVE TV’s in house model project a line of storms between 6 and 8 P.M..

What’s one to believe?  Good question!  First of all the GFS has been terrible lately as evidenced by a lot of forecasts we’ve heard recently.  Second, the short-term forecasts are better at picking up on the “outflow boundaries” created by previous storm systems, so they should be more reliable.  As a result, I’d lean toward the RAP/HRRR/WAVE forecast expecting a line of thunderstorms this evening.  We’ll see how it plays out.

More odds and ends

Tuesday, June 14, 2016  (Flag Day)

Current Weather:

Humidity rushed into the area in a BIG way late this morning.  Dew points jumped from the mid 50’s to near 70 degrees in three hours!  That has set the stage for some classic popup “hit ‘n’ miss” showers and thunderstorms.  So, far they are mostly west of I-65 but they should advance slowly eastward later this afternoon.  They are moving very slowly – about 10 mph, so if you get caught under one, watch out for some heavy rain in a short time.  As with most so-called “popups” they form quickly then rain themselves out in about an hour.

Looks like a smaller chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, but if any arrive they should be stronger than today’s.

Muhammad Ali:

With the recent death of The Champ and all the television coverage celebrating the international life of our home town hero, the story of the beginning trail of the future “Greatest” was repeated many times.  The story of the stolen bike which began the Joe Martin connection which  led to the boxing ring and future greatness is well known.  WAVE’s tv boxing show for young boxers, “Tomorrow’s Champions”, turned out to be well-named because of some appearances by a young Cassius Clay.  That story is also well known.  But apparently not all of it.

When I arrived at WAVE in 1969, the most popular story included additional details that I didn’t hear anyone relate last week.  So, as the late Paul Harvey would have said, “Here’s the rest of the story…”  Apparently, on Cassius’s first appearance on “Tomorrow’s Champions,” it came time for his match.  But, he was nowhere in sight.  Not in the studio, not in the halls, not in the rest rooms.  Finally WAVE’s legendary Ed Kallay found him in a broom closet…hiding and fighting back tears!  STAGE FRIGHT.  Ed cheered him (as he did countless children over the years),  and got him into the ring.  As they say, the rest is history.

Ali 2:

(Continued later)

4:30 update

Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co.  Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50.  Strong, gusty winds possible.  Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.

More showers/t-storms rumbling toward us.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Today is another situation where we have a very fine line between strong thunderstorms and a marginally “severe” storm or two.  Nothing really to worry about as the situation just can’t quite get its act together.

Large trough dropping into the midwest will slowly push eastward tonight and tomorrow.  A strong short wave disturbance is rotating around this trough and aiming for the south.  The northern halves of AL and MS as well as western TN  should see a significant severe storm outbreak this evening and tonight.

Meanwhile, a much weaker short wave is moving over western KY right now and is generating a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it moves toward us.  Look for this rain to reach Louisville about 4 P.M. and depart before 7 P.M.  Some of the embedded thunderstorms could be strong but should not reach into the “severe” range.  (Although with the trend of recent years for the NWS declaring almost any strong thunderstorm “severe”,  I would not be surprised if a  warning or two is issued.)  Keep in mind that a 58 mph wind (the lower limit of severe storms) will do a lot of damage.  Compared to a 50 mph wind gust (which doesn’t do a lot of damage, a 58 mph wind gust has about 35% MORE FORCE!

Later tonight, a cold front will cross IN into KY.  This front should become very active in the next few hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this front, especially over western and south central Indiana from about 6 P.M. to 9 P.M. EDT.  The southern end of this area will reach the Louisville between 9 P.M. until midnight.  No severe weather weather is expected with this line.  In fact, there’s a reasonable chance it’ll die out before reaching us.

 

 

 

 

You can WATCH all night, but you aren’t likely to see any severe storms

Easter Sunday, 8 P.M.

Severe storm WATCH for the area – looks like the forecasters at SPC were a little bored and tried to get a little excitement in today’s weather.

But the models are showing any instability to grind down to near zero by 9 P.M. AND since the major line of showers/t-storms won’t arrive in Louisville area until after 9 P.M., any threat for severe thunderstorms is close to zero.  Just a few hours of nice rain to help bring us our April showers.

Happy Easter.

Better day tomorrow!

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Quite rainy day…most of Jefferson County seems to be nearing (or over) the one inch mark  now (5:45 P.M.) with more due until about Midnight.  After that,  weak cool front drops across the area and pushes the rain eastward for tomorrow.  But the upper air system looks like it’ll reload tomorrow and return the on-and-off showers for Saturday through Monday.

Next week figures to remain mild, but it should’t be nearly as wet.

El Nino

The current El Nino is beginning to wind down, but should not drop to “normal” status until this summer.  But, historically, a strong El Nino brings a La Nina in its wake.  So, beginning later this year, our Earth is likely to see below normal temperatures setting in and lasting for a year or two.  According to satellite data, February was Earth’s warmest month (during the satellite era).  The previous record was set during another strong El Nino year – 1998.

El Nino precipitation

El Nino weather patterns are known to bring above normal precipitation totals to the southwestern U.S.  Drought-stricken California was greatly anticipating plenty of rain and snow this winter.  Until last weekend the winter rainy season hadn’t lived up to expectations.   Now,  after last weekend’s heavy rains put a lot of water into the state’s reservoirs, there is hope that many of the recent water restrictions may be eased this year.

Even better news is that at least two more significant storms appear headed toward the Golden State over the next week to 10 days.  If they both make it, California’s water situation will look better than it has for many years!

Comic relief

Saw a headline recently, “Researchers now say that man’s influence on climate may date back to the 1930’s.  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$…yes, that’s your hard-earned money (tax dollars)  being wasted on insanity.  The headline gave me a good laugh, but in the larger picture, it should have made me cry.  It’s sad, really, about all the money being  wasted over the “climate change” agenda.

The “problem”, if you want to call it that, is nothing new.  Ever since humans learned to cultivate crops and to live in communities, we have been inadvertently altering our climate.  As our population has grown to over seven billion, the change we bring to our Earth has been expanding.  Carbon dioxide is just a drop in the bucket compared to the overall picture.  As climate has changed in the past, humans have acclimated, or adapted, to the new circumstances.  In spite of the “stories” we’re being told by many so-called leaders, Earth’s climate is NOT broken, so it can’t be FIXED.  It just changes, and so must we.

Windy and colder tonight

Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016

As the major surface low pressure area moved right over the area this morning, we actually got a break from the heavy rain and even saw some sunshine with temperatures in the upper 50’s for an hour or two.  Then, as the low moved northeast, the colder air on it’s backside dropped temperatures in a hurry…and the rain resumed.

But, we’ve seen the worst  of it now.  Winds will start decreasing this evening and the rain, possibly changing to snow, will be diminishing between 7 P.M. and 9 P.M.  After 9 P.M., light rain showers and/or snow flurries will be scattered around the area during the night.  Whether we have  rain or snow  showers doesn’t make any difference.  If it’s snow, it’ll melt on impact so there’ll be no accumulation – so it essentially makes a situation I like to call “white rain.”  It has the same impact as rain.

Temperatures should remain above freezing in the Louisville area, so traffic problems should be no worse than wet roads.

4-5 days ago the models were predicting a major cold air outbreak to hit the eastern half of the country this weekend.  But, nature didn’t seem to get the message – in reality the cold air is pushing east rather than south.  So, now it looks like a cold day tomorrow followed by warming Friday into the weekend.  Not as warm as last weekend, but still very nice for late February.

Note:    I know some forecasts floating around include the possibility of up to an inch of snow (on grassy areas), but that idea seems to me to be a real outlier.

Another near miss?

Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016

Small clipper system has been difficult for the models to define well…until now.  As mentioned yesterday, the models had strengthened the system so that the surface reflection would pass to our south.  Today’s models are even stronger, so it now looks as though the whole thing will stay south of Louisville.  Areas west and south of Louisville will receive some some light rain this afternoon, but I’ll give it only a small (30%) chance for measurable rainfall for Louisville.

Any precipitation in KY should be south of Louisville and east of I-65 by 7 P.M.  After that, a few snow flurries will be possible tonight but create no problems.

Tomorrow will remain cloudy and cold, but sunshine returns with a nice warm up expected Thursday through Sunday.  Two or three days could reach into the 60’s.

Note:

I guess a better way to express the title today should say…Another near hit?

Note 2:

Snow accumulations from Sunday’s storm…snowd02152016c(1)

More Snow?

Monday, Feb, 15, 2016

Quick update today.  As expected, large storm gaining strength to our south is heading toward the Appalachians with plenty of snow, but mostly rain.  Southeastern KY could get some flooding rains tonight.

That system could bring some rains as far north as the Ohio River.  I’d make it about and 40% chance for rain reaching Louisville for a couple of hours this evening.  Most areas south and east of Louisville will see rain tonight.

Yet another Clipper will approach the area tomorrow afternoon.  Models can’t agree with each other with this system.  It is stronger than expected and will likely take a path south of Louisville.  That puts us in “snow territory”, but the storm will be small and weakening as it absorbs into today’s southern storm.  The result should be some light snow (possibly mixed with rain) tomorrow afternoon.  Little, if any snow accumulation is expected.  No road problems are expected due to temperatures above freezing.