Thursday, March 31, 2016

Today is another situation where we have a very fine line between strong thunderstorms and a marginally “severe” storm or two.  Nothing really to worry about as the situation just can’t quite get its act together.

Large trough dropping into the midwest will slowly push eastward tonight and tomorrow.  A strong short wave disturbance is rotating around this trough and aiming for the south.  The northern halves of AL and MS as well as western TN  should see a significant severe storm outbreak this evening and tonight.

Meanwhile, a much weaker short wave is moving over western KY right now and is generating a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it moves toward us.  Look for this rain to reach Louisville about 4 P.M. and depart before 7 P.M.  Some of the embedded thunderstorms could be strong but should not reach into the “severe” range.  (Although with the trend of recent years for the NWS declaring almost any strong thunderstorm “severe”,  I would not be surprised if a  warning or two is issued.)  Keep in mind that a 58 mph wind (the lower limit of severe storms) will do a lot of damage.  Compared to a 50 mph wind gust (which doesn’t do a lot of damage, a 58 mph wind gust has about 35% MORE FORCE!

Later tonight, a cold front will cross IN into KY.  This front should become very active in the next few hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this front, especially over western and south central Indiana from about 6 P.M. to 9 P.M. EDT.  The southern end of this area will reach the Louisville between 9 P.M. until midnight.  No severe weather weather is expected with this line.  In fact, there’s a reasonable chance it’ll die out before reaching us.