Thursday, July 7, 2016  4 P.M.

After the wide model divergence this morning, it’s looking more and more likely as though the short-term models will win out over the big guys (GFS and NAM).  To their credit, the NAM and GFS are rapidly catching on.

Storm Prediction Center has a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH covering about the western half of KY, but it stops short of Louisville.  It doesn’t matter about the watch boundary, because we’re in just as much risk (low) for severe winds as the folks to our west are.  A line of thunderstorms covers southwestern IN and western KY and is rapidly moving eastward – pushing quite strong gusty winds our way.  Radar estimates suggest 60-70 mph winds, but surface results usually don’t match the estimates.  Nevertheless, extreme southern IN and the Louisville area can expect strong (perhaps severe) wind gusts as this line races  through the metro area between approximately 5:15 and 6:30 P.M.  Scattered minor damage and some power outages are likely during that time.

The threat of severe winds from this system drops to near zero very quickly north of I-64.  The above description and timing pertain mostly to the area of IN and KY along and south of I-64.