Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Colder air brings some snow

While most of the weather talk today concerns the minus 10 to 20 degrees below zero wind chills expected tomorrow morning, the models are getting a little friendlier toward the cold blast bringing some snow as well.

It won’t be much, but at least we’ll probably see some actual snow on the ground by morning.  The GFS likes the idea of a bit of snow.  The NAM, not so much.  Both of the short term (24 hours or less) models, the HPPP and RAP like the idea a lot.  The latest blast of Arctic air will arrive this evening.  From roughly 9 P.M. until 1 A.M. some light snow/flurries will accompany the cold air.  Accumulations along and north of the Ohio River should be from a dusting to a half-inch.  South and east of Louisville will probably range between one-half to one inch.

In any event, the winds will be over 20 mph tonight, so the snow will be blowing around a lot.  Roads will see most of the snow blow off.  If crews put salt on the roads, it will make matters much worse – lots of icy spots.

Temperatures will bottom around 5 degrees tomorrow mid morning and only reach the lower teens tomorrow afternoon.  Most of us will see near zero temperatures Thursday morning.

Another chance for light snow arrives Thursday night.

Sunday, Jan. 27, 2019

No significant snow with the cold front

Basically no change today from yesterday’s models.  Strong cold front will cross central IN/KY tomorrow evening.  Ahead of the front tomorrow, we’ll see a windy mild day with temperatures reaching the upper 40’s to low 50’s during the afternoon.  As the front crosses I-65 tomorrow evening (around 6 – 9 P.M.)  it will probably squeeze a little moisture out of the air.  A little rain is possible with the front, then as the cold air rushes in, any rain should change to a brief period of light snow.  Little, if any, snow accumulation is expected locally.  However, !-2″ of snow will be possible east of I 75 thanks to some help from the higher terrain.

The upcoming cold air mass this week has been well promoted, so it should not come as a surprise to anyone.  However, temperatures in the low single digits with wind chills below zero Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be shocking on our systems.

By the weekend, however, it looks like temperatures once again bounce back into the 40’s and 50’s.

Friday, Jan. 25, 2019

Clippers coming at a rapid pace.

Models continue to bring small clippers into the U.S. once per day through the weekend.  They all appear weak, but still could bring us some light snow.  Last night’s clipper produced nothing but clouds and tonight’s might even be able to a produce some light snow from the clouds.  But even that looks like no more than the potential for a dusting of snow.

Tomorrow night’s clipper looks more promising.  This one seems to have the potential for a small accumulation, maybe a half inch or so.

Sunday’s clipper barely shows up on the models, so it looks like an “off” evening for snow chances.

But, Monday night’s clipper looks like the real thing.  It’s predicted to be quite strong and move across Wisconsin and Michigan Monday night and Tuesday.  Ordinarily Clippers don’t produce much precipitation south of the system’s storm track.  This time, however, the GFS has focused some rain and snow along the strong cold front sweeping south of the clipper.  There looks to be a potential for 1″-3″ of snow Monday night into early Tuesday.  It ought to be interesting.

Too early to tell about the snow, but one thing looks fairly certain – it’s really going to get COLD next Wed/Thu as nighttime lows should be the coldest (by far) this winter.

Think snow!

Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019

Rainy day tomorrow

As usual, the models have changed a little in the past day.  The most significant change is that a little pocket of energy has dropped out of Canada to enhance the northern part of the positively tilted trough moving slowly eastward over the central U.S.  That change will have two primary effects.  First, the western Great Lakes will get more snow than previously predicted.  Second, the weak cold front moving our way will probably be a larger rain-maker than I indicated.  Looks like about one inch plus or minus a quarter inch.

But, the changes , if anything, have reduced our already meager snow chances for late tomorrow.

Tonight

Increasing clouds and increasing temperatures tonight.  Rain arrives around 4 A.M. or later.  Temperatures rise to near 50 by morning.

Tomorrow

Rain, possibly heavy at times, during the morning.  Temperatures in the 50’s.  Rain tapers off during the afternoon and temperatures slowly fall into the 30’s. Rain ends about sundown – possibly changing to a little snow before ending.  No snow accumulation is expected, but a few areas could see a dusting.

Thursday+

A cold air mass will be rolling in all day.  A shot for some light Friday and the weekend.