Author Archives: wx

Evolution of a forecast

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Heavy rain, strong winds tomorrow

6 P.M. Friday, January 10, 2020

A major storm system will move across the area tomorrow.  We’ve seen several similar systems over the past few months and the results should be about the same as the previous ones.

But, first, let’s look back at how the forecast has evolved this week.  The hype was out early – Monday I heard “potential” for 5″-7″ rains (Thursday through Saturday), major severe storms outbreak Saturday, high winds and flooding were added to the mix.

By Tuesday, the rain potential was down to 3″-5″, but all the other dire circumstances were still in play.  Wednesday, the rain potential forecast was down to 2″-3″ and rain for Thursday was out but still a 90% chance for rain Thursday night and Friday.  The bad-news vibe for Saturday was still there.   Wind gust forecast was now up to 50-55 mph.

Thursday was a nice day, but the bad news would start Thursday night – it didn’t.  But, Friday would be a rainy day setting the stage for Saturday’s deluge.  Also, the rain forecast was now down to 1″- 3″.

Friday.  The  total rain forecast is now down to 1″-1.5″.  Wind gust forecast is still calling for a few gusts to 45 mph in Louisville area.  My current forecast expects a few showers in the area until 10 P.M. followed by dry windy weather later tonight through tomorrow morning.

This is a good reminder about the scourge of hype that has infected meteorology and the media.  This is not new – there was plenty of it during the time I was working.  It just seems to be getting worse.  The same thing holds for the “climate crisis.”  There is no climate crisis.  So many dire claims; no verification.  Supposedly, in the past 30 years, or so,  42 specific “predictions” of things that would happen before 2020 have been made. So far, none of the 42 has happened.  But, I digress.

Tomorrow

Here’s what I expect tomorrow.  Partly cloudy, windy and warm in the morning.  Temperatures will reach a record high in the low to mid 70’s.  Winds will gust into the 30-40 mph range by late morning. That’s the easy part.

The GFS has the cold front/heavy rains pushing through between Noon and 4 P.M. while the NAM is four hours later.  Let’s compromise and say 2-6 P.M.  During that time heavy rain is likely.  Thunderstorms are possible, but a pretty low risk.  Wind speeds and gusts will be lower during the afternoon than they were in the morning.

After the heavy rain  moves east, winds will pick up again into the 30-40 mph gust range and temperatures drop rapidly to near 40 by Sunday morning.

Notes:  The NAM predicts the center of low pressure with this storm to move/form right over Louisville tomorrow afternoon.  The GFS hints at it.  IF that happens, you’ll notice two results.  1).  Rainfall will be less than currently predicted.  Total rainfall would probably be less than one inch.                                                                                                                                                                    2).  Winds will be weaker than expected.  Morning gusts in the 25-35 mph range.  Evening gusts in about the same range.

Either way, not to much to be worried about.

Heavy snow tonight…for central Indiana

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Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019  2 P.M.

Just rain for Louisville area.

Fairly weak disturbance working northeast will push through the area tonight.  As often, we’re near the borderline between rain and snow.  As moisture increases this afternoon a few spots of very light snow/sleet/rain will probably develop over southern Indiana.

Larger area of rain/snow will probably move to the I-65 corridor by 7-8 P.M.  At onset, some snow and/or sleet may mix in, but will quickly become all rain for most of the night around Louisville.  Any snow of a half inch or more should be at least 30 miles north of Louisville.  But, total snowfall could easily reach 2″-4″ over central Indiana.

Tonight’s precipitation event is part of a much larger storm system that will bring us heavier rain late Monday and Monday night.  As the system moves east, the rain could change to the period of light snow early Tuesday.

Christmas weather

Today’s GFS predicts unseasonably warm weather for most of Christmas week.  Temperatures could reach the 60’s at least a couple of days, including Christmas Day.  No White Christmas this year.

Snow tonight

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Not much, but it’s a good start

Monday, November 11, 2019

Forecasters and forecast models all seem to be on the same page with the cold front moving through this evening.  Late afternoon rain should change over to light snow between 7 – 8 P.M. around the metro area.  Snow should be light and be over by midnight.  Then a wintry blast of cold air takes over for a few days.

It’ll probably take about 1-2 hours after the snow begins before temperatures drop below freezing. Nevertheless, we’ll probably see a little snow on grassy areas – up to 1″ in colder suburban areas.  No more than a few icy spots on roads, especially bridges and overpasses.  No problems are expected for the morning rush hour(s).

Stuff:

No wonder squirrels seem busy these days.  It takes at least 100 acorns for an average squirrel to make it through a winter.

 

Take your pick

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Sat. Oct 26, 2019 3 P.M

Windy and wet

As I usually do when I get up in the morning, I turn on NOAA Weather Radio to get an idea on what the latest ideas are.  I didn’t get much help today.  Rain…yes, but that has been pretty obvious for the past couple of days.

But, high winds were also expected today.  Here’s what I got… from the “official forecast” the winds were predicted for this afternoon to be 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  However, there was also a Wind Advisory.  That said late afternoon gusts would be 40-45 mph with a few gusts possibly reaching 50 mph.  Well, there is quite a difference between 30 mph and 50 mph gusts.  Thirty is pretty ordinary; fifty can create significant damage. So we’re getting two very different forecasts at the same time!  Probably should have just used the word “windy” and let everybody decide for themselves.

At least the Noon forecast updated the gusts up to 35 mph, but that doesn’t change the situation very much.

Meanwhile, the latest short term models have been lowering their wind predictions.  Current indications point to the strongest wind gusts should be between 4 and 7 P.M.  My best current estimate is for gusts reaching 35 and 40 mph with perhaps into the low 40’s

U of L’s Homecoming game should see those gusty winds and about a 50-50 mix of showers/no showers during the game.

UK’s game should also see a rain/no rain mix.  However, the winds should be quite a bit weaker.  Top gusts around 30 mph or so.

Mystery forecast?

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Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2019

Spent some time this morning and again this afternoon looking at the GFS and NAM forecasts for the rest of the week.  Both models move a full-latitude trough into the Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night.  It’ll positive-tilted, so no major storm development is expected here.  But, there’s almost certainly going to be plenty of moisture around with a large area getting rain, especially Friday night.

Then I checked the National Weather Service’s forecast.  This morning they had a 20% chance for rain Friday.  Now, the Friday/Friday night forecast has no mention of rain at all!

I’ve said this thousands of times..things change.  And I’m certain Friday won’t turn out exactly as the models are saying now.  But, if your two most important forecast tools are practically yelling “rain” at you, shouldn’t you at least mention the possibility in your forecast?

Much weaker than advertised

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Ohio Valley part of storm fades

Oct. 21, 2019 4 P.M.

Since late last week I’ve been hearing all these horror stories about today’s weather – heavy rain, flash flooding, possible severe storms, strong winds, etc.

Well, Monday has arrived and only (mostly) one part of the forecast will be correct.  We have had strong winds – gusts in the mid 30’s.  Although we were led to believe they’d be about 10 mph stronger.

Periods of rain are likely through about 9 P.M. though total rainfall should be about a quarter-inch or less.   A little lightning will be possible around 8 P.M.  Winds will still remain gusty- gusts possible of 30-35 mph late afternoon but diminishing this evening.

Stuff

This situation brought back a story about a former WAVE weathercaster from waaaay back.  He had predicted the next day to be sunny, windy and warm.  Instead, we had a cloudy, cool, rainy and windy day.

His next broadcast began this way…”See, I told you it was going to be windy today!”

Really?!

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Nit Picking

Noon Oct.9,2019

Just checked the afternoon forecast from the NWS.  Cloudy with a high in the upper 70’s.

Here we are sitting under cloudy skies, light NE winds at about 60 degrees.  How are we going to get almost 20 degrees of warming over the next 4-5 hours?  We’re not.  Even if the clouds cleared immediately, we’d be hard pressed to get that warm.  In reality, clouds should begin to thin by 3-4 P.M.  Even with thinning clouds, we’ll be lucky to reach the low 70’s.  Around 70 seems more likely.

What’s up?  Isn’t anyone paying attention?

Stuff

A little perspective…

Slashing and burning of the Amazon has been going on for decades.  All of a sudden this year, it became the “climate destruction gang’s” next big thing on the climate agenda.  But why now?  The  average amount of deforestation over the past five years has been only about 50% of what was occurring 20 years ago.

Don’t get me wrong on this, Amazon deforestation is (and has been) a big climate problem.  But, programs have been ongoing for years to reduce the burning.  Success has been modest, but this certainly is not a new problem.

Dorian footnotes

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5 P.M. Friday, Sept. 6,2019

Some laughs in a serious situation

Looking back on some things said this week, it appears the U.S. coastline got off pretty easily.  We had plenty of damage, but nothing that could compare anywhere close to the damage sustained by our Bahamian neighbors just 100 or so miles east of Florida.

Meanwhile, I just couldn’t resist laughing at our Prevaricator-in-Chief.  Some really funny sound bites – actually, though, crying should have been my reaction instead of laughter.  But, when the Prevaricator speaks about science, funny things roll out of his mouth.  He’s the classic example of speaking first, thinking later.

1).  Alabama.  He postpones (or cancels) a trip to Poland because of the potential hurricane damage to Alabama.  No National Hurricane Center bulletins on Dorian ever mentioned Alabama.  There was never a potential threat to ‘Bama.  (Of course, now he’ll probably ask the citizens of Alabama to vote for him because he kept the storm away from them.  Prevaricator-in- Chief indeed,)

2). Cat 5.   Numerous quotes earlier this week about…Category 5, nothing like this has ever happened before.  Who can believe this?  Amazing, Category 5’s just don’t happen.  And on and on.  Trouble is, he used the same words over and over and over in 2017 when another Category 5 storm approached the U.S.  Are we talking about memory loss or slow learner or both.

3).  Nuke it.  Hurricanes should be no problem, says the PIC.  We can just nuke ’em.  In any other reality, that just makes matters worse.  Instead of a hurricane hitting the coast, we’d have a radioactive hurricane hitting the coast.  We’d need a far different system to clean up from that hurricane.  Why won’t nuking a hurricane work.? The amount of energy nature works with dwarfs what we humans can do.  The NHC estimates that a typical average hurricane releases an amount of energy equal to about 10,000 average nuclear bombs.  Over an typical 7 day lifetime, that amounts to about one bomb per MINUTE.

Basically, the PIC should keep away from talking about science.

P.S.  I’ve just had an even scarier thought.  What if his science advisers told him to say those things???

Not much more to say about Dorian

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Six P.M. Thursday, Sept 5, 2019

Dorian approaching North Carolina

Dorian is weakening but still poses a threat to  SE North Carolina. It’ll move along, perhaps touching, the coast tonight and exit off of Cape Hatteras around midday tomorrow.

So, we sit back and wait to see the results.  It certainly won’t be as bad as some of the projections issued earlier this week.  But, it still looks like beach erosion will be extensive.

Some of the video from the northern Bahamas look almost unbelievable.

The next 36 hours are going to be tough for the Carolinas

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Wed, Sept 4, 2019  6 P.M.

Gulf Stream providing more fuel

Now that Dorian has cleared the Bahamas and moved over the warmer Gulf Stream waters, the storm’s winds and organization are picking.  Quite likely Dorian will move back to Cat 3 status, if it isn’t already there.

For the past couple of days, I’ve been focusing on the area between Myrtle Beach and the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the most at risk from this storm.  That’s still the case.  The full force of the winds plus the wind-driven storm surge will hit the South Carolina coast tonight and move along the coast until leaving the Outer Banks Friday morning.

Forecast models are consistent that the storm path will hug the coastline.  In fact, there’s a growing consensus that Dorian will make landfall for at least a few hours in North Carolina.

Official forecasts predict at least a 7-8 foot storm surge over northern South Carolina and probably higher over North Carolina.  The highest storm surges will occur at the time of high tides.  These storm surges were based on Dorian when the storm was weaker.  Now that intensification is occurring,  the waves could be even higher.

Whether Dorian is a Cat 2 or Cat 3, the Carolina coast is going to take quite a pounding during the next 36 hours.