Heavy rain, strong winds tomorrow
6 P.M. Friday, January 10, 2020
A major storm system will move across the area tomorrow. We’ve seen several similar systems over the past few months and the results should be about the same as the previous ones.
But, first, let’s look back at how the forecast has evolved this week. The hype was out early – Monday I heard “potential” for 5″-7″ rains (Thursday through Saturday), major severe storms outbreak Saturday, high winds and flooding were added to the mix.
By Tuesday, the rain potential was down to 3″-5″, but all the other dire circumstances were still in play. Wednesday, the rain potential forecast was down to 2″-3″ and rain for Thursday was out but still a 90% chance for rain Thursday night and Friday. The bad-news vibe for Saturday was still there. Wind gust forecast was now up to 50-55 mph.
Thursday was a nice day, but the bad news would start Thursday night – it didn’t. But, Friday would be a rainy day setting the stage for Saturday’s deluge. Also, the rain forecast was now down to 1″- 3″.
Friday. The total rain forecast is now down to 1″-1.5″. Wind gust forecast is still calling for a few gusts to 45 mph in Louisville area. My current forecast expects a few showers in the area until 10 P.M. followed by dry windy weather later tonight through tomorrow morning.
This is a good reminder about the scourge of hype that has infected meteorology and the media. This is not new – there was plenty of it during the time I was working. It just seems to be getting worse. The same thing holds for the “climate crisis.” There is no climate crisis. So many dire claims; no verification. Supposedly, in the past 30 years, or so, 42 specific “predictions” of things that would happen before 2020 have been made. So far, none of the 42 has happened. But, I digress.
Here’s what I expect tomorrow. Partly cloudy, windy and warm in the morning. Temperatures will reach a record high in the low to mid 70’s. Winds will gust into the 30-40 mph range by late morning. That’s the easy part.
The GFS has the cold front/heavy rains pushing through between Noon and 4 P.M. while the NAM is four hours later. Let’s compromise and say 2-6 P.M. During that time heavy rain is likely. Thunderstorms are possible, but a pretty low risk. Wind speeds and gusts will be lower during the afternoon than they were in the morning.
After the heavy rain moves east, winds will pick up again into the 30-40 mph gust range and temperatures drop rapidly to near 40 by Sunday morning.
Notes: The NAM predicts the center of low pressure with this storm to move/form right over Louisville tomorrow afternoon. The GFS hints at it. IF that happens, you’ll notice two results. 1). Rainfall will be less than currently predicted. Total rainfall would probably be less than one inch. 2). Winds will be weaker than expected. Morning gusts in the 25-35 mph range. Evening gusts in about the same range.
Either way, not to much to be worried about.