Wed, Sept 4, 2019 6 P.M.
Gulf Stream providing more fuel
Now that Dorian has cleared the Bahamas and moved over the warmer Gulf Stream waters, the storm’s winds and organization are picking. Quite likely Dorian will move back to Cat 3 status, if it isn’t already there.
For the past couple of days, I’ve been focusing on the area between Myrtle Beach and the Outer Banks of North Carolina as the most at risk from this storm. That’s still the case. The full force of the winds plus the wind-driven storm surge will hit the South Carolina coast tonight and move along the coast until leaving the Outer Banks Friday morning.
Forecast models are consistent that the storm path will hug the coastline. In fact, there’s a growing consensus that Dorian will make landfall for at least a few hours in North Carolina.
Official forecasts predict at least a 7-8 foot storm surge over northern South Carolina and probably higher over North Carolina. The highest storm surges will occur at the time of high tides. These storm surges were based on Dorian when the storm was weaker. Now that intensification is occurring, the waves could be even higher.
Whether Dorian is a Cat 2 or Cat 3, the Carolina coast is going to take quite a pounding during the next 36 hours.