+Friday, Feb. 14, 2025 6 P.M

Major storm over the western U.S. will drop southeast, then head northeast once it crosses the Rockies. This storm will bring very heavy rain to much of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow and tomorrow night into early Sunday. Models are now projecting about 4″ of rain along the Ohio River with as much as 6+”over central and southeast KY.

Widespread flash and general river flooding is expected over most of KY. If you live in flood-prone areas and many non-flood prone areas, take precautions/ Be especially careful for flooded roads.

We could see some flurries Sunday as cold air arrives as the rain departs and much colder air arrives.

Snow

Another weaker system, similar to the one early this week will cross the region Tuesday. The difference this time is colder air. Rather than wet snow, we’ll see a fluffy dry snow – much better for accumulations. It’s still a long way off, but looks like 2″-3″ could happen.

Think snow!

Monday, Feb. 10, 2025 6:30 P.M.

Well, what do we have here? Latest National Weather Service briefing on tomorrow’s weather has got everything covered.

1). Winter Storm Warning for our Kentucky area plus Harrison and Floyd Counties in southern Indiana. This “warning” contains wording for 4″ or more of snow and serious travel problems.

2)). Their actual snow forecast for Loiuisville, however, is 2″-3″.

3). Their graphic shows pretty much all of our area with “minor travel problems.” Only areas of hazardous driving are from Frankfort/Lexington and east.

4). So, if we go by their graphics and forecast, we should be under a Winter Weather Advisory. But for some reason they went with a big upgrade to Winter Storm WARNING. Go figure!

Let’s try to make a little sense out of this…

A relatively weak upper disturbance will glide over us tomorrow, its primary focus (rain) over Tennessee. We’ll be on the northern edge of the system with temperatures just cold enough for snow. It’ll be a very wet, sloppy snow with accumulations locally of 1″ mostly north of the city reaching up to 3″ south of the Metro. Little accumulations on roadways, only minor problems. My best guess for Louisville is 1″-2′ .

Sunday, Feb.9, 2025 11:30 P.M.

Just enough cold air has arrived to set the stage for a rather weak upper air system to give us a good chance for snow Tuesday. At this time it looks like a very sloppy wet snow starting around daybreak Tuesday. Temperature is expected to remain above 32 throughout the snow event. So, traffic problems should be minor with about a 1″-2″ snow accumulation on grassy areas, but not much on roads.

Heavier snow is likely south of Louisville with 2″-4″ possible from E-town to Lexington.

Congrats to the Eagles!

Sunday, January 19, 2025 11 A.M.

Yesterday, I was quite surprised when the NWS predicted 2″ of snow for the Louisville area. There just disn’t seem to be enough moisture/energy to get nearly that much snow here. Since then, the models have dropped any snow estimates to near zero. But, the NWS increased their snow forecast to up to three inches! Not even close to expected reality.

Meanwhile, back in the real world. Louisville still has a chance for some light snow/flurries until early afternoon. Little, or no, accumulation expected.

In spite of the lack of snow, the very cold air will still take over through midweek. It’ll be pretty similar to the cold blast we had after the snow/ice storm a couple of weeks ago.

Friday, January 10, 2025 1:30 P.M.

Light snow continues across the area. Bands of heavier snow are affecting two areas – southwestern IN northeast toward central IN – and southern KY. Forecast models pick up this trend and maintain it and expect the heaviest accumulations in those areas. Meanwhile, the region between about 50 miles north and south of the Ohio River are predicted to remain in the lighter snow.

Most recent model runs are projecting snow accumulations along the river to be in the 1.5″ to 3″ range. My forecast yesterday was 2″ – 4″. I’ll stick with that for now, but the 4″ inch total is probably a little high for Louisville. Most of the area should be around 2″-3″. Any 4″ totals should be south of Jefferson County.

Snow will become heavier during afternoon rush hour then fade away by 7-9 P.M.

NOTE: Snowfall is not the same as snow accumulation. Interestingly, we forecast “accumulation” but then report “snow fall” publicly. For instance, this past weekend’s snow/ice storm was reported as 10.5″. However, accumulation is recorded but not generally reported. Accumulation reached 7″ during Monday’s snow, but by evening it was down to 6″.

Thursday, Nov.21, 2024

Weather Service has upped their snow forecast tonight to 2″ That would be nice, but seems too high to me. Locally, we should get up to 1″ on grassy areas. No accumulation is likely on roadways thanks to temperatures staying above freezing.

Heavier snow totals up to 1″+ are likely northeast of our local area – places like Seymour, Madison, Frankfort and Lexington.

Thursday, Aug 1, 2024 2 P.M.

Set up is almost identical to yesterday. Plenty of instability; nice upper air support. And thunderstorms popping to our west. Yesterday produced a “cluster” of thunderstorms. Today looks to be linear. That means a larger area will experience strong to severe winds along with heavy rain.

I’d estimate line of storms to arrive in our area by 4:30 and exit eastward by 6:30 P.M.