Category Archives: Uncategorized

Snow chances looking good.

Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2017

Interesting Alberta Low-type system will pass north of the area tomorrow.  This system wasn’t given much credit as recently as yesterday (NWS had only a 40% chance for measurable snowfall Thursday. Now they’ve jumped to 2″-3″ of snow by late tomorrow.)

Models haven’t changed all that much, but the “official” forecast sure has.  Models continue to place the best chance for snow over southern Indiana with I-64 about the southern edge of a possible 1″-3″ snow band.  Louisville area should get around one inch (along with plenty of road problems).  Snow appears likely to begin in Louisville by late morning and end during the evening rush hour.

More later.

THINK SNOW!

Cutting back the rain forecast

Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2016  6 P.M.

After a very dry October, forecasts had been indicating a possibly rainy start to this month.  Unfortunately, that outlook has been drying quickly.  The models stated playing down the rain last night and the trend has continued.  There’s still a pretty high chance for rain tomorrow morning (50%-60%) but even if we do get rain, it won’t be much.  It’s likely to stay below .10″, so not much help to our dry conditions.

One thing the models have strengthened, though, is the magnitude of the colder air to follow – models are now running up to 5 degrees colder (than yesterday) for the weekend.  That still keeps us in above normal temperatures, however.

Looks like we’ll see a period of colder-than-normal weather setting up after Election Day.  More on that later.

5 P.M. update

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Storms fade…no threat to metro area.

Southeastward thrust to storms continues and any severe weather threat for the Louisville metro area has faded away.  Some heavy rain/gusty winds will hit southern Jefferson County and northern Bullitt County over next 30-45 minutes, but the storms will not be very strong.  Otherwise, rain is fading over southern Indiana.  So, it now appears that most of Jefferson County will get little, if any, rain.

Storm update – good news

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4:45 P.M.

Decreasing threat to Jefferson County

Most active part of line of thunderstorms approaching us has shifted southward into parts of Meade and Hardin Counties.  Hardin County could still see strong winds of 50 mph or more for the next hour.

Meanwhile, northern part of the line is now entirely south of I-64 in southern Harrison County.  Gusty winds are still likely, but they should stay in the 40-45 mph range.  This line will bring similar winds to areas of Jefferson Co. south of the Watterson X Way between 5:15 and 6 P.M.  Northern Jefferson County and southern Indiana (north of I-64) will be much calmer – not much rain and little wind threat.

Late afternoon could get stormy

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4 P.M.

After the wide model divergence this morning, it’s looking more and more likely as though the short-term models will win out over the big guys (GFS and NAM).  To their credit, the NAM and GFS are rapidly catching on.

Storm Prediction Center has a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH covering about the western half of KY, but it stops short of Louisville.  It doesn’t matter about the watch boundary, because we’re in just as much risk (low) for severe winds as the folks to our west are.  A line of thunderstorms covers southwestern IN and western KY and is rapidly moving eastward – pushing quite strong gusty winds our way.  Radar estimates suggest 60-70 mph winds, but surface results usually don’t match the estimates.  Nevertheless, extreme southern IN and the Louisville area can expect strong (perhaps severe) wind gusts as this line races  through the metro area between approximately 5:15 and 6:30 P.M.  Scattered minor damage and some power outages are likely during that time.

The threat of severe winds from this system drops to near zero very quickly north of I-64.  The above description and timing pertain mostly to the area of IN and KY along and south of I-64.

 

 

Interesting forecast problem today

Thursday, July 7, 2016  11 A.M.

Looking at this morning’s forecast models and actual forecasts is almost a case of “What’s going on?”  Everything you look at has a different story to tell.  First, the NWS forecast includes a scant 20% chance for rain/t-storms today and another 20% chance tonight.  The backbone of our forecast system, the GFS produces a 1% chance today and about 40% tonight (LAMP) and a 4% chance today, 45% tonight (MOS).  Meanwhile, the NAM model output is also low…11% today and 53% tonight.  By the way, all of the “tonight” forecasts call for the rain after midnight.

On the other hand, the Storm Prediction Center gives us a 40% chance for thunderstorms today and just 10% tonight.   Then, the two primary short-term forecasts chime in with a slight different story.  Both the RAP and the HRRR predict a line of thunderstorms to reach the Louisville area between roughly 8 P.M. and Midnight.  Earlier today I saw WAVE TV’s in house model project a line of storms between 6 and 8 P.M..

What’s one to believe?  Good question!  First of all the GFS has been terrible lately as evidenced by a lot of forecasts we’ve heard recently.  Second, the short-term forecasts are better at picking up on the “outflow boundaries” created by previous storm systems, so they should be more reliable.  As a result, I’d lean toward the RAP/HRRR/WAVE forecast expecting a line of thunderstorms this evening.  We’ll see how it plays out.

4:30 update

Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co.  Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50.  Strong, gusty winds possible.  Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.

January thaw has late arrival.

Thursday 1/28/2016

Weather update:

After a couple weeks of wintry weather, a common January weather feature is entering the game – the January Thaw.  For centuries, weather watchers have noticed a tendency for a period of milder, calmer weather to hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the latter part of January.  This year (it doesn’t happen happen every year) it’s a bit late. We’ve been experiencing a rather weak example of it this week, but it’ll really kick into action by the weekend.  Temperatures could reach 60 or so then, but it’ll be even warmer early next week when even 70 degrees is not out of question. A strong storm will come out of the southwest early next week and move northward through the Mississippi Valley.  That will bring us strong southern winds and warm, rainy weather Tuesday and Tuesday night.  That’ll be it for this year’s “Thaw” as wintry conditions will return by midweek.

The “10 year deadline” has passed.  Why are we still here?

It was 10 years ago this week when former Vice President Al Gore made his (at the time) famous proclamation that if we didn’t make drastic efforts to end global warming in the next 10 years, Earth was doomed.  Well, the years have passed, Earth hasn’t warmed (according to satellite data), we haven’t done much to reduce the supposed enemy – carbon dioxide, and everything seems to be rolling along smoothly.  Of course, Al’s made a fortune acting as the shill for some climate fanatics, so he’ll be well prepared when the end arrives.

If you’d like more detail on Al’s proclamations and predictions, check out this article from the climate website Watt’s Up With That?   http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/25/state-of-the-climate-10-years-after-al-gore-declared-a-planetary-emergency-top-10-reasons-gore-was-wrong/

2015 – Hottest Year Ever?

Last week our government announced NOAA ‘s and NASA’s findings that 2015 was the warmest year on record.  This is based on their analysis of global surface data that they have “adjusted” so many times as to be barely recognizable.  But, it fits the agenda.  Interestingly, our government also pays two groups to measure Earth’s temperatures.  Have you ever heard satellite data discussed during their “hottest this, warmest that” press conferences?  No, I didn’t think so.  The two satellite groups are GSS (Global Satellite Services) and UAH (University of Alabama-Huntsville).  The satellite global temperature surveys began in late 1978 and have closely matched each other over the years.  Why haven’t you heard about them?  This graph shows you why… Screenshot 2016-01-28 at 1.11.58 PM    Satellite data doesn’t support the agenda.

What’s Up???

Friday evening (Feb 20)

Confusion abounds.  Each model tells a little different story, so I’ve decided to look at the overall large picture (the basic “rules” from years past.  What appears below is for the Louisville area – more sleet/freezing rain/rain south of us; more snow north of us (especially northeast)

Here’s what I’m going with:

8P.M. – Midnight  Light snow spreads over the area

Midnight- 6A.M.  Snow intensifies but sleet takes over as primary precip. form after 3 A.M.  Temperatures slowly rising.  By 6 A.M. snow /sleet accumulation should be 2″ – 3″.  No significant accumulations are likely after this time.

6 A.M. – Noon  Sleet and freezing rain take over with freezing rain becoming heavy at times during the morning (no major problems from this).  Temperatures should reach 32 or higher by Noon.

Noon-6 P.M.  Rain (and possibly some light wet snow) diminish during the afternoon.

Watch for some urban street flooding, especially tomorrow morning.

Do you hear what I hear?

Sunday afternoon

It seems like it’s been a week, maybe longer.  I’ve been warned about a possibility of an ice storm this weekend.  Constant barrages of what we could have – sleet (maybe) rain(maybe), slow(maybe, and freezing rain(maybe).  Starting a couple of days ago, the frozen options began to fall out of the “options” list (as per the computer models),  but not from the forecasts.  If you read (very carefully )the NWS forecast today, it’s a forecast for rain(as it should be).  However, why is the forecast so full of references to sleet and freezing rain and possibly snow flakes??? Beats me!  How long do you think it’ll take the weather service to get all the icy words out of the Louisville forecast?

Until they do, here’s my forecast.., Light rain should move into the area by 3-4 P.M.  Rain should get a little heavier during the evening hours, then should become more scattered again after midnight.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s to near 40 once the rain begins.  Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 36-38 range most of the night then fall to the mid 30’s tomorrow afternoon.

The above forecast is for the Louisville metro area.  As we get 20-30 miles north of Louisville a  little light freezing rain will be possible this evening, but it will quickly change over to all rain.  Roads are expected to remain wet, not icy.