Thursday, July 7, 2016
Storms fade…no threat to metro area.
Southeastward thrust to storms continues and any severe weather threat for the Louisville metro area has faded away. Some heavy rain/gusty winds will hit southern Jefferson County and northern Bullitt County over next 30-45 minutes, but the storms will not be very strong. Otherwise, rain is fading over southern Indiana. So, it now appears that most of Jefferson County will get little, if any, rain.
Thursday, July 7, 2016 4:45 P.M.
Decreasing threat to Jefferson County
Most active part of line of thunderstorms approaching us has shifted southward into parts of Meade and Hardin Counties. Hardin County could still see strong winds of 50 mph or more for the next hour.
Meanwhile, northern part of the line is now entirely south of I-64 in southern Harrison County. Gusty winds are still likely, but they should stay in the 40-45 mph range. This line will bring similar winds to areas of Jefferson Co. south of the Watterson X Way between 5:15 and 6 P.M. Northern Jefferson County and southern Indiana (north of I-64) will be much calmer – not much rain and little wind threat.
Thursday, July 7, 2016 4 P.M.
After the wide model divergence this morning, it’s looking more and more likely as though the short-term models will win out over the big guys (GFS and NAM). To their credit, the NAM and GFS are rapidly catching on.
Storm Prediction Center has a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH covering about the western half of KY, but it stops short of Louisville. It doesn’t matter about the watch boundary, because we’re in just as much risk (low) for severe winds as the folks to our west are. A line of thunderstorms covers southwestern IN and western KY and is rapidly moving eastward – pushing quite strong gusty winds our way. Radar estimates suggest 60-70 mph winds, but surface results usually don’t match the estimates. Nevertheless, extreme southern IN and the Louisville area can expect strong (perhaps severe) wind gusts as this line races through the metro area between approximately 5:15 and 6:30 P.M. Scattered minor damage and some power outages are likely during that time.
The threat of severe winds from this system drops to near zero very quickly north of I-64. The above description and timing pertain mostly to the area of IN and KY along and south of I-64.
Thursday, July 7, 2016 11 A.M.
Looking at this morning’s forecast models and actual forecasts is almost a case of “What’s going on?” Everything you look at has a different story to tell. First, the NWS forecast includes a scant 20% chance for rain/t-storms today and another 20% chance tonight. The backbone of our forecast system, the GFS produces a 1% chance today and about 40% tonight (LAMP) and a 4% chance today, 45% tonight (MOS). Meanwhile, the NAM model output is also low…11% today and 53% tonight. By the way, all of the “tonight” forecasts call for the rain after midnight.
On the other hand, the Storm Prediction Center gives us a 40% chance for thunderstorms today and just 10% tonight. Then, the two primary short-term forecasts chime in with a slight different story. Both the RAP and the HRRR predict a line of thunderstorms to reach the Louisville area between roughly 8 P.M. and Midnight. Earlier today I saw WAVE TV’s in house model project a line of storms between 6 and 8 P.M..
What’s one to believe? Good question! First of all the GFS has been terrible lately as evidenced by a lot of forecasts we’ve heard recently. Second, the short-term forecasts are better at picking up on the “outflow boundaries” created by previous storm systems, so they should be more reliable. As a result, I’d lean toward the RAP/HRRR/WAVE forecast expecting a line of thunderstorms this evening. We’ll see how it plays out.
Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co. Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50. Strong, gusty winds possible. Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.
After a couple weeks of wintry weather, a common January weather feature is entering the game – the January Thaw. For centuries, weather watchers have noticed a tendency for a period of milder, calmer weather to hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the latter part of January. This year (it doesn’t happen happen every year) it’s a bit late. We’ve been experiencing a rather weak example of it this week, but it’ll really kick into action by the weekend. Temperatures could reach 60 or so then, but it’ll be even warmer early next week when even 70 degrees is not out of question. A strong storm will come out of the southwest early next week and move northward through the Mississippi Valley. That will bring us strong southern winds and warm, rainy weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. That’ll be it for this year’s “Thaw” as wintry conditions will return by midweek.
The “10 year deadline” has passed. Why are we still here?
It was 10 years ago this week when former Vice President Al Gore made his (at the time) famous proclamation that if we didn’t make drastic efforts to end global warming in the next 10 years, Earth was doomed. Well, the years have passed, Earth hasn’t warmed (according to satellite data), we haven’t done much to reduce the supposed enemy – carbon dioxide, and everything seems to be rolling along smoothly. Of course, Al’s made a fortune acting as the shill for some climate fanatics, so he’ll be well prepared when the end arrives.
If you’d like more detail on Al’s proclamations and predictions, check out this article from the climate website Watt’s Up With That? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/25/state-of-the-climate-10-years-after-al-gore-declared-a-planetary-emergency-top-10-reasons-gore-was-wrong/
2015 – Hottest Year Ever?
Last week our government announced NOAA ‘s and NASA’s findings that 2015 was the warmest year on record. This is based on their analysis of global surface data that they have “adjusted” so many times as to be barely recognizable. But, it fits the agenda. Interestingly, our government also pays two groups to measure Earth’s temperatures. Have you ever heard satellite data discussed during their “hottest this, warmest that” press conferences? No, I didn’t think so. The two satellite groups are GSS (Global Satellite Services) and UAH (University of Alabama-Huntsville). The satellite global temperature surveys began in late 1978 and have closely matched each other over the years. Why haven’t you heard about them? This graph shows you why… Satellite data doesn’t support the agenda.
Friday evening (Feb 20)
Confusion abounds. Each model tells a little different story, so I’ve decided to look at the overall large picture (the basic “rules” from years past. What appears below is for the Louisville area – more sleet/freezing rain/rain south of us; more snow north of us (especially northeast)
Here’s what I’m going with:
8P.M. – Midnight Light snow spreads over the area
Midnight- 6A.M. Snow intensifies but sleet takes over as primary precip. form after 3 A.M. Temperatures slowly rising. By 6 A.M. snow /sleet accumulation should be 2″ – 3″. No significant accumulations are likely after this time.
6 A.M. – Noon Sleet and freezing rain take over with freezing rain becoming heavy at times during the morning (no major problems from this). Temperatures should reach 32 or higher by Noon.
Noon-6 P.M. Rain (and possibly some light wet snow) diminish during the afternoon.
Watch for some urban street flooding, especially tomorrow morning.
It seems like it’s been a week, maybe longer. I’ve been warned about a possibility of an ice storm this weekend. Constant barrages of what we could have – sleet (maybe) rain(maybe), slow(maybe, and freezing rain(maybe). Starting a couple of days ago, the frozen options began to fall out of the “options” list (as per the computer models), but not from the forecasts. If you read (very carefully )the NWS forecast today, it’s a forecast for rain(as it should be). However, why is the forecast so full of references to sleet and freezing rain and possibly snow flakes??? Beats me! How long do you think it’ll take the weather service to get all the icy words out of the Louisville forecast?
Until they do, here’s my forecast.., Light rain should move into the area by 3-4 P.M. Rain should get a little heavier during the evening hours, then should become more scattered again after midnight. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s to near 40 once the rain begins. Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 36-38 range most of the night then fall to the mid 30’s tomorrow afternoon.
The above forecast is for the Louisville metro area. As we get 20-30 miles north of Louisville a little light freezing rain will be possible this evening, but it will quickly change over to all rain. Roads are expected to remain wet, not icy.
Still pretty calm on the weather front. We’ll see a warming trend beginning tomorrow that will continue through Sunday. Then we’ll begin a slow slide into colder weather beginning Monday. Models remain very consistent. Mostly sunny tomorrow, then cloudy Saturday with a small chance for rain near Louisville, but higher over Indiana. Any rain that falls will be light. For several days the models have been agreeing on a Sunday arrival of a strong storm from the southwest. That will bring a chance for moderate to heavy rains and temperatures reaching as high as 60 or so. The only difference since yesterday is a slight delay in the arrival of Sunday’s rain. Favored time now seems to be Sunday afternoon and night.
Longer term: Cold weather will be the rule for most of next week. It’ll be generally dry after Monday, but we will see a chance for some light snow or flurries Wednesday night.
The National Weather Service today issued their winter outlook. Meteorological winter is the months of December, January, and February.
This outlook has undergone some major changes (toward colder) in the past two months. The September edition had almost no area of the U.S. in “below normal” category. Then, last month, they added Texas and a small area surrounding. Today, that area has expanded to cover about three times more of the country. That’s an amazing change, but I still don’t think they’ve gone nearly far enough to the cold side. Now they have us with about a 35% chance for winter temperatures to be below normal.
I’ve checked a half dozen or so non-government sources for their winter forecasts and they generally run much colder than the “official” outlook. I’ve mentioned before about a private group called Weather Bell Analytics. For my money, I think they are the best around at seasonal forecasting. Here’s their winter forecast. I think it’ll be a lot closer to what actually happens than the NWS version.
We’ve all been hearing about, and seeing pictures of the epic snows around Buffalo, New York. Here are a few of the ones I like the best.
On the first two, you can see how narrow the bands of snow off the lake are. Within 20 miles of the 5′-6′ snows you are likely to find areas with just a few inches of snow – it all depends on the wind direction! The last photo gets my award for greatest ingenuity.
As it turned out, it wasn’t too difficult to get temperatures above 40. Unfortunately the milder weather won’t last long. A moisture-starved upper air disturbance has been passing over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. All it could do moisture-wise was the clouds this afternoon. They will fade away tonight. But this system is also bringing us another shot of unseasonably cold air. It won’t be as bad as Monday and yesterday, but should hold highs to the mid 30’s tomorrow and near 40 Friday.
It still looks like some rainy (and warmer) weather will arrive by the weekend. A strong storm is taking shape over the southwestern U.S. and will provide us with at least 3 “waves” of energy before it exits our area. First, the leading edge of this system will send a weak disturbance our way Saturday. As often happens, the first surge of energy brings lots of moisture into the area but little, if any, precipitation. This one looks the same way and if it does produce any rain it will be more likely over southern Indiana rather than Kentucky. A lot more energy will be tied up in the second system, set to arrive Sunday. This should bring lots of rain and temperatures rising to near 60 degrees. Even a thunderstorm will be possible. A third storm should arrive on Monday. It’ll prevent any major temperature drop following system 2, but it should bring us some more rain. Following that system, we’ll see temperatures dropping back to January levels (highs near 40) for a couple of days.
Polar Bear Stuff
Over the past few days, several world newspapers have been carrying stories about a “40% population decline in the past 10 years.” Brings back Al Gore’s photoshopped picture of a lonely polar sitting on a small chunk of sea ice with nothing but water anywhere to be seen. It was the major talking point for his infamous declaration that polar bears would soon disappear because the Arctic would have ice-free summers by 2013 or 12014. (This summer’s ice cover minimum was 4.9 million square kilometers Current ice cover is 9.9 sq. km.)
Dr. Susan Crockford is a Canadian zoologist and professor who has been studying polar bears in the Canadian and Alaskan Arctic for more than three decades. She says the actual data is a whole lot different than the article claims. Yes, there was a drop in bear population between 2004 and 2006. Estimated drop was 25-30% of the population. The time corresponded to a series of years with thicker than normal sea ice in the spring. (Yes, a colder time.) Then spring sea ice diminished though about 2012 . What happened to the bears? Their population grew back to pre-2004 levels and is thought to be still growing.
Yes, that’s just the opposite of what the so-called greens have been shouting to us for almost a decade. Just goes to show you what happens when non-scientists start preaching about science! We could have saved a lot of time and effort if we’d just believed the real experts – the Inuits. Old saying among the Arctic dwellers- Warming weather brings more polar bears!