Wed. Feb. 19, 2025 5 P.M.
Even colder air is moving over us setting up a very cold Thursday, but we will see easing temperatures as soon as Friday. A small upper level disturbance is escorting the cold air and could squeeze out a few snow showers between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. Morning wind chills are expected to be near zero.
Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 12:30 P.M.
The news this morning is not good for snow lovers. Both the GFS and NAM have reduced their snow forecasts for the region. It turns out that the cold air mass moving in is colder and deeper than the models had been projecting. The result of that is the new storm coming out the west will have to take a more southerly track to get around the cold air mass.
Thus, the predicted position of the swath of heaviest snow now looks like it’ll over central and southern KY. That also tends to reduce the amount of moisture which travels this far north.
So, here’s my latest. Snow will move into the area tomorrow evening and depart from our area before Noon Wednesday. Snow accumulation in the Louisville should be about 2″-4″. Snow totals drop of quickly north of the Ohio while higher amounts occur along and south of the Bluegrass Parkway.
Saturday, Feb.15,2025 5 P.M.
Some small changes in forecast models have lead to some tweaks to my forecast since yesterday. Changes to tonight’s rain forecast have lowered the expected rainfall for us along the Ohio River. Nevertheless, Flood Warnings and Watches still cover Kentucky as a high probability for flooding will continue overnight. The highest rainfall amounts, 4″ – 5″, are likely south of Louisville – roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Fort Campbell to Lexington. Be especially watchful for flooding in that area overnight.
Louisville area is likely to see about 2″-3″ of rainfall – mostly between now and Midnight. Given our already saturated soil, we’ll see plenty of flooded areas as well, just not as bad as southern KY.
Another update to this storm concerns the arrival of colder air tomorrow morning. It nows looks as though we’ll see a minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Current indications are for less than an inch accumulation, mostly on grassy areas. Little, if any, on roadways.
The other system we talked about yesterday was about a possible snow-maker Tuesday night. Since then, the GFS model has been slowly increasing the snow potential with this system. There’s still plenty of time for additional changes, but for now, the snow forecast stands at about 3″ – 5″ for the Louisville area!
Stuff
Pres. Trump declares “I am a women. And so are you.” Not exactly in those words, but that was one his early “orders”. (I warned you this regime would be quite funny.)
In his declaration that there are only two sexes – male and female – he specifically mentioned that “male” or “female” would be determined at “conception”. However, the NIH says that at conception, we ALL have female genitalia. After about 6-7 weeks male genitalia appears. So, at conception all humans are female!
Thus, according to his own proclamation, Donald Trump is our FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. Sorry Hilary and Kamala, he beat you to it.
Note: I know the edict has been stayed by a judge. I don’t know the current status. I’m not at all surprised that the Pres would order that edict be put in place. That’s just the way he operates. I am, however, amazed that not one of his many MAGATS bowing to his every word even bothered to look it up!
Friday, January 24, 2025 5:30 P.M.
A lull in Polar Jet Stream activity over the U.S. will give us a nice break. Temperatures should jump to “above normal” levels by early next week. That should finally get rid of the remaining snow/ice.
It’ll be nice to see what happens when the jet becomes more active again. Sometimes it reforms its previous pattern, which would rebuild the cold regime. Other times, however, it goes back to its early winter pattern. That would essentially bring us an early spring. Currently, the odds favor the return to above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Stuff: Money woes: in today’s world, it costs the U.S. Mint 3 cents to make a penny. A nickel costs 14 cents to produce. (With economics like this, it’s easy to see why our government is so much in debt.)
Stuff 2: About a century ago, American humorist Will Rogers was asked how he kept coming up with new material. Easy, he replied. I just have to read the newspapers every day to find out what’s going on in Washington.
That’s as true now as it was 100 years ago! Unfortunately, the Biden Administration wasn’t good at producing much entertainment. But the tRump gang is a riot of enjoyment. Just an example – the U.S. Presidency has made a total reversal. Our first president was famous for “I can not tell a lie”. Our current president is famous because he can not tell the truth!
The next four years are going to be the “Golden Age” for political humor.
Saturday, January 18, 2025 5:30 P.M.
As colder air pours into the Ohio Valley tomorrow, it should bring along some snow flurries/snow showers. The cold air will be feeding in to a new coastal storm which should produce heavy snow up the Appalachans into the east coast tomorrow night. Forecast models are predicting that this developing storm will spread heavy snows ( 4″ plus) into far southeast KY with lesser amounts north and west as far as the Ohio River.
The “official” forecast is for a 2″ snowfall. That seems pretty good for the Lexington area, but here. Less than an inch looks better for Louisville area.
Stuff
Tomorrow could be the last day of democracy for our dear republic. Enjoy it while we still have it! Ben Franklin warned us about this over 240 years ago. Something about learning from the past so as not to make the same mistakes over again. Monarch vs. autocrat…doesn’t make much difference, does it?
Thursday, January 9, 2025 4 :30 P.M.
While we’re still cleaning up from Sunday’s storm, another one looms on the western horizon. No concerns this time with sleet and freezing rain, so it simplifies the forecast somewhat – just snow. That primary question still remains…how much? I’m hopeful I’ll do better this time.
We’re dealing with a similar system again. A large pocket of energy has dropped south of the main jet stream over the western U.S. These so-called “cut off lows” usually drift slowly eastward and eventually rejoin the primary flow. Since they migrate from the southwest, they have a good source of moisture available when they cross the southern Rockies and head northeast – as we saw last weekend.
Luckily, there are some differences this time. 1). Last week’s storm dragged a huge mound of cold air into the area east of the Rockies. 2). That cold mound will force the new system to stay south -mainly along the Gulf Coast. 3). That will keep the primary moisture energy fields from reaching this far north. 4). The primary axis of the jet stream flow with this system will be from northeast to southwest. This situation is called a positive tilt trough. Positive troughs have much less energy to use than negative ones.
This system will still produce an area of snow/sleet/freezing rain, but this time the focus will be across parts of Texas and Arkansas at first, then move east over Tennessee and the northern parts of the Gulf Coastal states.
We’ll be on the northern side of the system and will be in an area of classic “overrunning.” Some warmer, moist air will be slowly gliding over the colder air mass we’re in. The result will be about 8-10 hours of slowly accumulating light snow. Snow should begin shortly after Noon and wrap up before Midnight. I expect Louisville to have a 2″ to 4″ accumulation (less on highways). Snow accumulations will be lower north of I-64; slightly higher south of the Interstate.
2 P.M. Friday, Sept 17, 2024 2 P.M.
It appears we’ve already experienced the worst of the rain (for sure) and winds (likely) during the past hour or two. Rain will be getting lighter in the next hour and diminishing by this evening. Winds will be slowly weakening this afternoon as what’s left of Helene nears. Area of 40+ mph wind gusts will slowly drift westward over southern IN and KY. However wind gusts over 30 mph will continue into the evening.
So far, the max wind gust here has been 41 mph at Standiford and 39 at Bowman. We may see a couple of low 40’s over the next hour, but, in general, the trend will be down.
Just an observation…The NWS had this situation nailed yesterday morning. Then they went crazy.