Category Archives: Uncategorized

Strong storms possible until 7 P.M.

Monday, March 27, 2017  5:30 P.M.

We’re on the northern edge of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently.  Primary concern lies south of Louisville over central KY and, especially, central TN.  Activity is due to a small, but intense upper level disturbance racing over the lower Ohio Valley.  Once again, the upper dynamics are strong, but the lower level instability is quite weak.  For the past  few hours, clusters of thunderstorms have been moving NE from southern/southwestern KY.  A few severe storm warnings have been issued, but it appears most of the storms, while strong, have stayed below severe limits (58 mph winds).  Main factor for us has been the weakening of the storms as they encounter the more stable air mass near the Ohio River.

Main line of storms will push through the I-65 corridor (and Louisville area) between 6 and 7 P.M. this evening.  Strong wind gusts and, perhaps, isolated spots of small hail will be likely as the line passes by.  Overall, these storms should have little affect on our  metro area.

BY 7 P.M. any storm threat for the Louisville are will end.  Any additional threat for severe storms will continue east and southeast of us.

Stuff

A little late for the big day itself, but some things to remember about St. Patrick:

1).  He was not Irish.  (He was born in England, sold into slavery in Ireland as a child.  He later escaped and returned to England where he became a priest.  Then he returned to Ireland to help bring Christianity to Ireland.

2).  It is true that there were no snakes in Ireland when Patrick died.  However, there were no snakes in Ireland when he arrived as a priest.  Irish snakes were destroyed about 10,000 years BEFORE Patrick’s era by the most recent Ice Age.

 

 

Wow! It’s snowing!

Monday, March 13, 2017  3 P.M.

Just looked out the window and saw some (very light) snow.  Large area of precipitation on NWS radar moving slowly eastward should continue the snow for a couple of hours.  No accumulation on  roadways as temperatures are above freezing.  Radar showing a classic “bright band” over Meade and northern Hardin Cos.  That’s the area where the snow is melting aloft and thus creating a change from snow to rain.  That snow-to-rain transition will reach the Louisville area by around 5-6 P.M.

Enjoy the snow while it’s still here.

Nature’s still teasing us

Friday, March 10, 2017  11:30 A.M.

Oh, so close! But apparently not close enough as this morning’s GFS and NAM continue to keep any snow tomorrow afternoon just a bit to our west and south.  Plenty of moisture seems to be available, but both models place the primary area of atmospheric lift about 200 miles to our west tomorrow morning, then curving around to our south by evening.  We’ll be watching a very cloudy sky…most likely with nothing falling from those clouds.

But, we’ll see another chance for light snow/flurries late Monday into Tuesday.

Latest GFS snow forecast from last night’s run:

Quiet weekend

Saturday, Feb. 11, 2017  1 P.M.

A weak Alberta Clipper will push rapidly eastward across the lower Great Lakes tonight.  Gusty southerly winds ahead of this system will bring us another unseasonably warm day although those winds are having trouble bringing moisture northward.  However, it does appear likely we’ll see a little rain late tonight as the Clipper’s cold front pushes through.  Rain will probably be only a few hundredths of an inch and end around daybreak tomorrow.  Another windy day Sunday, but this time the winds will be from the northwest.  Thus, colder weather – temperatures will be slowly falling through the 50’s during the day.

Intriguing photos

Got these from http://spaceweather.com   They show a funnel cloud near Rio de Janiero a few days ago.  They did not touch down and caused no damage.  In Brazil they are called “tubes.”

Funnel Cloud

Funnel Cloud 1

Funnel Cloud 2

Make that a VERY small snow

Saturday, Jan. 28, 2017

Update from earlier…first of two small snowfalls mentioned earlier will stay south of Louisville…southern KY may see  up to one-half inch.

Second (afternoon system) will have little moisture to work with so only a little snow shower activity is likely 2 P.M. to 6 P.M. with most areas getting no more than a dusting.  No road problems expected with temperatures remaining above 32 degrees.

Winter Weather Advisory seems misguided to me.

Snow chances looking good.

Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2017

Interesting Alberta Low-type system will pass north of the area tomorrow.  This system wasn’t given much credit as recently as yesterday (NWS had only a 40% chance for measurable snowfall Thursday. Now they’ve jumped to 2″-3″ of snow by late tomorrow.)

Models haven’t changed all that much, but the “official” forecast sure has.  Models continue to place the best chance for snow over southern Indiana with I-64 about the southern edge of a possible 1″-3″ snow band.  Louisville area should get around one inch (along with plenty of road problems).  Snow appears likely to begin in Louisville by late morning and end during the evening rush hour.

More later.

THINK SNOW!

Cutting back the rain forecast

Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2016  6 P.M.

After a very dry October, forecasts had been indicating a possibly rainy start to this month.  Unfortunately, that outlook has been drying quickly.  The models stated playing down the rain last night and the trend has continued.  There’s still a pretty high chance for rain tomorrow morning (50%-60%) but even if we do get rain, it won’t be much.  It’s likely to stay below .10″, so not much help to our dry conditions.

One thing the models have strengthened, though, is the magnitude of the colder air to follow – models are now running up to 5 degrees colder (than yesterday) for the weekend.  That still keeps us in above normal temperatures, however.

Looks like we’ll see a period of colder-than-normal weather setting up after Election Day.  More on that later.

5 P.M. update

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Storms fade…no threat to metro area.

Southeastward thrust to storms continues and any severe weather threat for the Louisville metro area has faded away.  Some heavy rain/gusty winds will hit southern Jefferson County and northern Bullitt County over next 30-45 minutes, but the storms will not be very strong.  Otherwise, rain is fading over southern Indiana.  So, it now appears that most of Jefferson County will get little, if any, rain.

Storm update – good news

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4:45 P.M.

Decreasing threat to Jefferson County

Most active part of line of thunderstorms approaching us has shifted southward into parts of Meade and Hardin Counties.  Hardin County could still see strong winds of 50 mph or more for the next hour.

Meanwhile, northern part of the line is now entirely south of I-64 in southern Harrison County.  Gusty winds are still likely, but they should stay in the 40-45 mph range.  This line will bring similar winds to areas of Jefferson Co. south of the Watterson X Way between 5:15 and 6 P.M.  Northern Jefferson County and southern Indiana (north of I-64) will be much calmer – not much rain and little wind threat.