1 P.M. update

Supercells still forming over west KY into SW IN.  Several tornadoes have been reported.

Adjust time of arrival in Louisville area to 3 P.M. – 5 P.M. Otherwise, discussion below still looks okay.

March 14, 2019  Noon

Potentially Damaging Storms late this afternoon

One change since yesterday’s post is the addition of additional moisture into the equation.  The very strong wind fields are still in place.  Now with the added moisture, it looks like nature’s two primary severe weather producers – dynamics and thermodynamics – will interact for a few hours this afternoon.  Luckily for us, the worst should be over before reaching the Louisville area.

Super cells are moving along the Ohio River in western KY and southern IL.  Several warnings have already been issued.  This area of severe weather will move rapidly northeast into southwest IN and then central IN over the next few hours.  It will not affect the Louisville area.

With afternoon heating, additional super cells are likely to form.  Models continue to put the primary threat north of the Ohio River.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional development over western KY early this afternoon.  Any super cell will be capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.

The threat to Louisville area will be between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M.  as a scattered to broken line of thunderstorms moves through.  Primary threat by that time should be strong winds, but depending upon how things evolve over the next few hours, it could get worse (or better).

Updates to follow…