Thursday, March 10, 2022 6 P.M.
All week the models have been predicting a seasonably cold air mass to reach our area late tomorrow. They were expecting a quick drop in temperatures from the 50’s during the afternoon, then dropping to near 30 by Midnight. Meanwhile, the cold air would be able to squeeze some snow out of our relatively dry air. Snow forecasts averaged about an inch. Cold air would stick around Saturday with a strong warming beginning Sunday.
Then, this morning’s models started to upgrade the situation(s). I use the plural because this morning the GFS and NAM models had two distinctly different solutions on how this situation will play out. The primary headline is that they both end with the same large scale solution – a large spring snowstorm dropping 4″-6″ over southern and eastern KY tomorrow night then sweep along the Appalachians with 5″-8″ of snow Saturday.
Without getting into too much explanation, while getting to the big picture the GFS paints a snowier picture for us near the Ohio River. The GFS puts about an inch of snow for far southern Indiana. About 40 miles either side of the river it predicts about 1″-2″ of snow. Sliding south and east of Louisville you quickly get to 3″, then 4″+.
The NAM, on the other hand, keeps the band of heavier snows farther south of the Ohio River. It predicts about 1″ for Louisville (lower north of the river, more south of the city).
As I’ve mentioned before, normally the GFS is a little better than the NAM. In this case, however, I like the NAM’s solution – about an inch of snow tomorrow night from about 8 P.M. until 1 A.M.
We’ll give it another look tomorrow.