Recent Changes

Sunday, November 30, 2025 6 P.M.

For many months, the U.S. long range forecast models have followed the usual trends for a “La Nina” winter. We are currently in weak La Nina conditions and are expected to slowly rise into the neutral range early next year. La Nina status is when sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific are below normal…as they are now.

A La Nina winter pattern usually starts as most of Canada with colder than normal temperatures while the U.S. has above normal warmth. The major storm track tends to run along the warm/cold boundary. Then, in January, the cold Canadian air drops slowly southward into the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. At the same time the primary storm track also drops south. By February, the colder than normal air masses and storm track drop even more southward. So the result is often called a” Late” Winter with most of the stormiest conditions during the latter half of the season,

Not this year! Starting early in November, the longer range models abruptly changed. Basically, the December forecast changed from warm to cold. That colder-than-normal outlook has locked in for December. The cold pattern warms a bit by January and back to neutral-to-warm temperatures by Febraury.

That’s a complete reversal of the La Nina cycle.

My personal thoughts generally agree with the new data. Look forward to a cold December with numerous chances for snow and rain. Then temperatures ease (compared to normal) in January but still pretty high levels of snow chances. More temperature easing in Feb.