Shaky forecast models

Wed., Jan 22, 2020 4 P.M.

Flip flops are the latest model fashion

Two weeks ago, the models were forecasting a major pattern reversal over North America.  Winter was finally on the way.  Seven days ago, the models had reversed themselves – abnormally warm weather would remain well into next month. Now, the models have undergone a “reversal reversal.”  In other words, the forecast again favors below normal temperatures taking over during the next 7-10 days.  This time, however, the Euro model is even colder than the GFS.

It’s all very confusing, but here’s what’s most likely for the next few days.  A deepening upper level low will push from the southern Rockies tonight to a position right over top the IN/KY by late Friday.  Ahead of the storm we’ll be mild with periods of rain from late tomorrow into Friday.  As the low moves over us rain showers will probably change to snow showers Friday night into Saturday.  It’ll be too warm for any accumulation on roads, but some minor accumulations are possible on grassy areas.

After that, warming will be back early next week followed by rain, then colder.  GFS and Euro predict another storm with rain to snow next Fri/Sat, but forecasts that far in advance this winter have met with pretty poor results.  We’ll see.




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