Thursday, March 12, 2020  4 P.M.

Cluster of rain/thunderstorms in the area now is not showing any signs of severe weather,  Instability is very low, but the dynamics are quite strong.  Nevertheless, severe weather is not expected with this area.  However, stronger storms appear likely later this evening.

Current showers/t-storms are forming along a warm front slowly pushing north.  Once we get into the warmer/moister air south of the front, we’ll have the potential for slightly higher instability for a few hours.

During that time, a cold front will be moving over southern IN/western KY.  That system should pass through our area between 6 and 8 P.M.  The front is already creating severe weather to our west.  Instability should still be weak, but the wind fields will be strong enough to create a strong wind threat – possibly severe (58 mph or more) in a few areas.  Atmospheric structure favorable for tornadoes should remain south and west of Louisville.

After 8 P.M., threat for severe weather will move south and east of Louisville area.