Models still can’t agree

Tue., Feb 9, 2021  6 P.M.

Storm potential downgraded

Models are still having a debate at how the upcoming wintry weather system will play out.  In the short term a solution seems to be stepping forward.  But the GFS is still out on its own for the weekend.

Meanwhile, the models seem to be converging on an idea that the ice storm expected tomorrow will have its major impact over the southern two-thirds of KY.  Louisville area will have just a small amount during the day, but could see an increase in intensity tomorrow night.  I was happy to see the Weather Service downgrade Louisville’s threat assessment.  Outside of ever-slippery bridges/overpasses, tomorrow shouldn’t be too bad.  Even fewer problems over southern IN.

As colder air continues to slide southward, warmer air aloft will melt any snow trying to fall, so most of us will see freezing rain (some sleet also possible) probably beginning by mid morning.  Daytime heating should keep most of the roads wet with icy spots on the aforementioned bridges and elevated spots.  Wires, tree limbs, railings, sidewalks will probably get icy.  Luckily ice accumulations will be less than .1″

Freezing rain should pause during the afternoon, but resume again tomorrow night.  Once again, accumulations of ice should be small locally.  Also, the freezing rain should change to snow early Thursday.  Snow could accumulate an inch or two.

Although icing conditions are expected to be minor locally, this will be a MAJOR ice storm for the southern two-thirds of Kentucky.  Damaging ice conditions could accumulate to as much as .25″ to .50″.  That would be very damaging.


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