Snow? Models disagree

Sunday, February 11, 2024 4 P.M.

After bringing lots of rain to the southwestern states last week, all that’s left is a small cutoff upper level disturbance left behind as the major system moved on. The system is now being re-absorbed into the primary jet stream flow as it ejects toward the Tennessee Valley. A small surface low will develop tomorrow over TN and move over southeastern KY tomorrow night. That’s a classic snow situation for us! However, the big questions are exactly where the snow will fall? and will cold air arrive in time?

The models have been ignoring this development for the past few days, but are now paying attention. Unfortunately, they can’t seem to agree on the exact details. One area for agreement is that it’ll be a rain changing to snow situation. That change depends on the arrival of colder air that is expected tomorrow evening.

This morning’s GFS for the area has the rain/snow line along the Ohio River with accumulations of 2″ to 6″ inches of heavy, wet snow over the southern quarter of Indiana by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the KY side of the river should see an inch of snow or so – mostly on grassy areas. On the other hand, the NAM places the northern edge of the snow along the river. That puts about the northern third of KY (Including Louisville area) into the area of heaviest snowfall. That could mean about 2″ to 4″ of sloppy, wet snow for us but little snow for Indiana.

Now, however, the afternoon run of the NAM paints another take on the situation. This forecast pushes the whole situation about 60 miles south of it’s earlier solution. That means extreme southern Indiana and the KY counties touching the Ohio River will see rain tomorrow afternoon and evening with little or no snow on the tail end.

The afternoon GFS hasn’t arrived yet. It’ll be interesting!

STUFF: If the 49ers win tonight, they will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for the most Super Bowl victories. 6 each.

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