Tuesday, April 2, 2024 3:50

The Storm Prediction Center is about to Issue a Tornado Watch for southern IN and central KY. Louisville is right in the middle of the Watch.

The main focus for severe weather today was expected to be mostly eastern Kentucky, but clouds from this morning’s storms have held temperatures down to levels where it has been hard to generate instability.

Meanwhile, the weak cool front/dry line crossing western IN southwestward into Tennessee has been slowly trying to generate thunderstorms. The area has the advantage of warming sunshine to induce greater instability. The upper winds are very strong, so severe weather can be expected from any thunderstorm that can form. The wind fields are conducive to tornado formation. Any supercell that manages to develop in this situation could easily produce strong (F2 or higher) tornadoes. Instability required to manufacture strong thunderstorms is somewhat limited, but if supercells can form, we’re in for trouble.

At this time (4 :15 P.M.) the strongest storms are over southwest IN moving northeast at 50-60 mph. That puts southern IN under the greatest threat of damaging weather now. In this case, damaging weather should stay 30-40 miles north of the Ohio River. Primary time for storms to arrive in Louisville area will be 5:30 P.M. until 7:30 P.M.

Currently, thunderstorms in western KY are having a tough time developing. If that trend continues, the threat for damaging weather over the Louisville area will be low.

More later.