Tuesday afternoon

A pocket of upper air moisture has been bringing us a thin layer of clouds, but the lower levels remain dry, so no rain is expected.  As mentioned yesterday, the appearance of 20%,30% or 40% chances for rain/t-storms in EVERY forecast period for the next 4-5 days is a good marker of uncertainty in weather forecasts.  While there is a varying chance for rain in every 12-hour period for at least the next 96 hours, I feel it’ll only happen in one or two of those periods.  Some examples:  tonight, too dry; tomorrow, marginal moisture, but upper air confluence says “no”; tomorrow night, decent chance, but it appears the rain/storm system will stay over the western third of KY, etc, etc.

I’ve never liked the “could happen” forecast although I must admit I used if often enough. Nevertheless, I much prefer the “will happen” over “could”.  However, in the summer my preference is an easy way to drive one crazy, what with all the little nuances than occur daily with thunderstorm systems.  That said, I’ll take my saw with me as I go out on the limb.  My two choices – Thursday daytime (possibly beginning early in the morning) and again Friday daytime.  Not good news for the PGA, but at least Saturday and Sunday look to be dry (from this far away).