Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025 7 P.M.

Putting the recent forecast model runs together, the general pattern looks about the same as it did yesterday. The biggest doubt remaining is how much snow/sleet? Basically, how much snow falls before sleet takes over. The old reliable GFS expects 4-6 hours of snow which could build about a 4″ snow cover. The NAM models show sleet mixing in earlier, so about a 1″-3″ snow depth. The NAM models also show a snow pattern I had expected to see – an almost perfect match to a trick learned way back in my college days. So, here’s how it looks to me…

Snow begins around 9 A.M. tomorrow and continues through early afternoon when sleet joins the party. Somewhere around 2 P.M. we’ll have a snow depth of about 1″-3″. Sleet then becomes the main player and could “solidify” the snow into about 2″-3″ by evening.

Then, the freezing rain takes over for about 4-5 hours. This will make the ground very slushy and possibly create urban road problems if slush has blocked storm sewers. This will not result in damaging icing conditions.

Around Midnight or so, any steady precipitation will pause for about six hours. Patchy areas of freezing drizzle will form during this time. If we’re going to see any potentially problematic icing it’ll be during this time. But, I don’t think it’ll amount to that much.

During the Monday morning rush some light snow and flurries will return and gradually fade away during the afternoon.

By the time it’s all over, expect 1″ – 3″ of snow/ice.

This forecast is for the Louisville area. Less of every thing as you head south. Meanwhile, some very heavy snow will fall over southern Indiana. From about Scottsburg north to Indy, a swath of snow of up to 8″ to 12″ is possible.